Why the New York Giants Must Wait to Trade Saquon Barkley

During the 2018 NFL draft, the New York Giants turned plenty of heads when they selected Penn State running back Saquon Barkley with the No. 2 overall pick. It was the earliest a running back had been selected since the New Orleans Saints took USC's Reggie Bush second overall in 2006.

At first, it appeared as though the G-Men chose wisely. Barkley averaged five yards per carry as a rookie, eclipsed 2,000 total yards and won Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.

A superstar was born. Or so we thought.

Fast-forward to 2022, and Barkley has gone from superstar to lame-duck running back playing out the final year of his rookie deal. Rather than being hailed as one of the NFL's most dangerous ball-carriers, Barkley is being harangued as New York's biggest draft-day gaffe of the past several years.

Injuries have derailed Barkley's promising career, putting his long-term future in New York into question. At the NFL Scouting Combine on Tuesday, new Giants general manager Joe Schoen made it clear that he isn't ruling out a Barkley trade this offseason:

"We're still working through that, but I'm open to anything. Like whether it's trading player for player. I'll listen to anybody. I'm not going to say we're open for business on our entire roster. But if anybody is going to call and they're interested in any of our players, I'll certainly listen. 

"We're in a situation where unfortunately we have to get under the salary cap and we're not in very good salary cap health. I'm not going to say yes to every deal, but I'm definitely going to listen and be open to situations that are best for the New York Giants."

Given that the Giants drafted Barkley instead of Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen or Indianapolis Colts guard Quenton Nelson, it's getting difficult to find someone who doesn't believe they made a massive mistake. However, Schoen needs to resist the urge to compound that mistake by making another.

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

This isn't to say that the Giants shouldn't trade Barkley at some point. However, they should wait either until Barkley's value or the demand for his services goes up.

It's easy to see why Barkley's status with the Giants is uncertain.

In his second season, he once again rushed for over 1,000 yards, averaged 4.6 yards per carry and flirted with 1,500 total yards. But he also missed three games with an ankle injury, which wound up being a harbinger of issues to come.

In 2020, Barkley struggled mightily over the first two games of the season, averaging less than two yards per carry. Then in a Week 2 loss in Chicago, he suffered a season-ending ACL tear.

Barkley was back on the field for the Giants' season opener in 2021, but they went to great lengths to protect his surgically repaired knee. Despite being arguably the top offensive threat on a team that struggled to move the ball, Barkley had 20 carries in only one game and 16-plus carries three times. He finished with only 593 rushing yards, averaged a mediocre 3.7 yards per carry and missed four games.

Barkley was running behind the NFL's third-worst offensive line, according to Pro Football Focus, which could help explain some of his struggles. However, he rarely looked like the explosive home run threat that he was in 2018 and 2019.

Corey Sipkin/Associated Press

In January, he told Madelyn Burke of the team website that he's now eager to put his recent struggles behind him (h/t Dan Benton of Giants Wire):

"I've learned so much from this rehab—ACL, MCL and meniscus. Learned a lot from it. But the things I've learned from this year and last offseason is going to help me. That's the only thing I keep telling myself and keep believing because the storm don't last forever. So, just got to be ready when the storm is done."

It's possible that he will. Some players have needed a year to fully recover from a major knee injury. And in 2018, Barkley was a threat to take it to the house every time he touched the ball.

But he has missed 21 of a possible 49 games since then, and his per-snap productivity has steadily declined. Even if Barkley can recapture his past form, a Giants team that is already $11.6 million over the 2022 salary cap with holes all over its roster can't afford a running back who costs more than $12 million per season (the low end for elite players at the position).

One way or the other, this upcoming season is likely it for Barkley in New York. Schoen thus may be tempted to deal him this offseason, wipe his $7.2 million cap hit off the books, recoup some draft capital and move on.

He just shouldn't do it yet.

If the Giants deal Barkley now, they'll be selling in a buyer's market. They'll get some cap relief, but they aren't likely to get significant draft capital. But once OTAs and training camp arrive, that could change.

Every time Barkley looks more like the dynamo we saw in 2018 and 2019, teams may be more tempted to gamble on him. Some teams will inevitably suffer injuries at running back in camp and the preseason, too.

John Munson/Associated Press

Just last year, the Baltimore Ravens backfield got decimated by injuries in the preseason. What might those Ravens have been willing to surrender for a healthy Barkley?

If that doesn't pan out, the Giants can wait until after the regular season starts. Yes, they'll be risking that Barkley will get hurt again. But there also could be even more reward.

If Barkley impresses in regular-season action and a contender loses its starting running back, the asking price for his services could skyrocket. New York might be able to add an extra first-round pick for the second time in as many years.

The Giants need all of the picks they can get. They still need a long-term answer at quarterback and to overhaul their offensive line. Wide receiver Kenny Golladay, their splash free-agent signing last offseason, was an $18 million boondoggle. New York also needs pass-rushers, cornerbacks and probably nacho vendors as well.

The Giants aren't going anywhere this season. They have to be willing to punt on the present for the sake of the future. They can't undo Dave Gettleman's disastrous tenure as general manager overnight.

Schoen should draft a young running back in the third or fourth round (someone like Dameon Pierce or D'vonte Price) and send Barkley packing. But not until the time is right and he gets more than the compensatory pick that the Giants will get for just letting Barkley walk as a free agent in 2023.