2022 March Madness Title Odds for Top Men's Contenders Entering March
College basketball's top 10 made a little bit of history over the weekend, and not the good kind.
For the first time, seven of the AP poll's 10 best—No. 1 Gonzaga, No. 2 Arizona, No. 3 Auburn, No. 4 Purdue, No. 5 Kansas, No. 6 Kentucky and No. 9 Texas Tech—fell victim on the same day (Saturday), destabilizing the sport's top echelon right as the madness of March sweeps in.
Time to sort it all out. The latest AP poll dropped Monday, and the shake-up was immediately evident. Goodbye, Texas Tech; hello, Providence.
With all those Big Dance brackets and boxes just around the corner, wagering is on the minds of many a sports fan. DraftKings has the odds for scores of teams who could, at least theoretically, cut down the final net of the season. Did you know that Furman is +100,000 to do that? There's your factoid of the day.
For now we'll focus on the top 10 alone, taking a look at the odds for each one and how they're all situated heading into the home stretch.
No. 10 Wisconsin (+6000)
1 of 10
Record: 23-5
NET Ranking: 21
An early loss to Providence turned out to be not nearly as damaging as it once seemed for the Badgers, and their current four-game winning streak looks pretty good against a strong Big Ten field.
Their mettle will be tested Tuesday against a No. 8 Purdue team looking to get back on track after a loss over the weekend (more on that momentarily).
The oddsmakers don't seem to have a lot of faith in the Badgers. That +6000 is higher than some teams that don't even appear in the top 10, including Houston (+4000) and UCLA (+2500).
Could it be worth taking a flier? Probably not; this is a flawed team. They sit dead last in the Big Ten with a 42.8 team field-goal percentage, and 10th with just 70.9 points per contest. On February 5, they beat Penn State while managing just 51 points (PSU put up 49).
The Penn States of the world are filtering themselves out this time of year. It all depends on how much you value the experience they've garnered playing in the country's toughest conference, where they've accumulated a 14-4 record.
No. 9 Providence (+8000)
2 of 10
Record: 24-3
NET Ranking: 25
The Friars have the longest odds to win of any team in the top 10, and that's a very interesting thing to note.
Providence has no bad losses on its record, and a solid 14-3 mark in Quadrants 1 and 2. And the Big East is a deceptively strong conference this season, listed third overall by TeamRankings and projected by Bleacher Report bracketologist Kerry Miller to send seven teams to the Dance.
On the flip side, Providence has a tendency to play close games, including against beatable opponents. The most high-profile examples would be the 99-92 triple-OT thriller over 17-11 Xavier and the 71-70 overtime squeaker over 13-17 Butler.
This is a team that almost beats itself and then finds a way to pull it out of the fire. That's the kind of attribute that can be worthwhile—and worth a flier—come March.
No. 8 Purdue Boilermakers (+900)
3 of 10
Record: 24-5
NET Ranking: 12
Tumbling four spots from last week, the Boilermakers are licking their wounds after losing 68-65 at Michigan State. It was a classic Big Ten rock fight, and no one does those better than the Spartans, who forced Purdue into 17 turnovers and 1-of-9 shooting from beyond the arc.
To maintain perspective, the Boilermakers have still won nine of 11 games. They sit atop KenPom's offensive rankings and appear on national top-10 lists for scoring (81.6 per game), field-goal percentage (50.3 percent), three-point percentage (39.88) and scoring margin (12.8), among others.
But they have a hard time getting stops and staying in games when the shots aren't falling. They're only 105th in KenPom's adjusted defense ranking and 233rd in adjusted tempo.
Lead Boilermaker Jaden Ivey is currently slated to go No. 4 in this summer's NBA draft by Bleacher Report draft expert Jonathan Wasserman. But he's fallen on hard times, and that's making a difference in the Boilermakers' bottom line. Ivey is at his best when he's getting to the rim, but that isn't stopping him from trying his hand—and trying, and trying—from the deeper waters. Purdue is 3-2 in its last five games, and during that time Ivey has averaged 15 points on 20-of-55 (36.4 percent) shooting from the floor and an abysmal 3-of-21 (14.3 percent) from deep. All are significantly below his respective season averages of 17.3 points per game, 46.4 percent shooting and 36.8 percent shooting from three.
If Ivey can get off the schneid and back to his bread and butter, Purdue will be ship shape in short order. A loss to an also-ran in Michigan State could be what it takes to fire the Boilermakers back up. Although +900 is on the lower side, with this offensive machine presumably set to rebound, Purdue could be a good horse to back.
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No. 7 Kentucky Wildcats (+700)
4 of 10
Record: 23-6
NET Ranking: 4
Behind the seemingly unstoppable Oscar Tshiebwe, Kentucky has built one of the most powerful offenses in the country.
Five different players average double figures, and they're a force both inside and out. They're seventh nationally in scoring margin (14.7) and tops in rebounding margin (10.6).
Yes, they just dropped a 75-73 loss to Arkansas, but the Razorbacks are the hottest team in the country, having now won 13 of their past 14 contests. Kentucky had been playing much better of late but is now 2-2 in its last four.
If the Wildcats can make shots, hit free throws and play mistake-free basketball, they will win games. But that's a lot of ifs. There might be a better value out there.
No. 6 Kansas Jayhawks (+1200)
5 of 10
Record: 23-5
NET Ranking: 6
The Jayhawks started hot Saturday but relinquished their lead in the second half at then-No. 10 Baylor. It's a game they would have loved to have, but a hard-fought loss on the defending champ's home floor didn't leave coach Bill Self in apoplexy.
"I didn't go into the game thinking that this was going to be a great opportunity," Self told reporters. "I went in the game knowing that you had to play really well in order to win, and we didn't play well enough."
All to say, don't put too much stock in it. There's still plenty to like about this battle-tested Jayhawks team. Their 10-4 Quadrant 1 record gives them a 71.4 percent success rate against the nation's top programs. And they're a deep and balanced squad. Ochai Agbaji gets all the love, but that obscures a team that shoots a collective 49.1 percent, good for tops in the Big 12 and seventh nationally.
A coach that has been there many times before and a talented and poised rotation have Kansas looking pretty good. The Jayhawks' final three regular-season games will be interesting as they look to protect their projected No. 1 seed in the Big Dance.
No. 5 Auburn Tigers (+1200)
6 of 10
Record: 25-4
NET Ranking: 11
In their 67-62 loss Saturday in front of a fired-up Tennessee crowd, the Tigers were outrebounded 54-31. That is an eye-popping statistic for a team rounding the final stretch of a banner season, and one that sits second in the SEC in rebounds per game (40).
Was this an aberration, or did the Vols catch Auburn looking ahead (or losing steam)? It's a fair question, as Auburn is 3-3 in its last six, though all three loses were by five points or fewer.
On the plus side, the Tigers still have Jabari Smith. A visit to Mississippi State and a home closer against South Carolina ensure they'll have a soft landing to the regular season. Taking care of business in those two games and making a solid run in the conference tournament would do a lot to bolster fans' confidence in a team that's projected for a No. 2 seed in the Big Dance, per Miller.
There are a few red flags, but they'll be easy to forget if Auburn retakes control from here on out.
No. 4 Duke Blue Devils (+1200)
7 of 10
Record: 25-4
NET Ranking: 9
While other teams were faltering, the Blue Devils were cruising, dusting Syracuse on the road Saturday by 25. Their Big Three—Paolo Banchero, AJ Griffin, both of whom are projected by Wasserman as lottery picks, and center Mark Williams—combined for 69 points on 25-of-41 shooting. There's a lot of youth here, with the former two stars being freshmen and Williams being a sophomore, but Coach K has them jelled and playing to their strengths.
To paraphrase Marty Schottenheimer, there's a gleam around this team as it closes out coach Mike Krzyzewski's final season at the helm. The Blue Devils have won six straight, and their March 5 regular-season closer against rival North Carolina could be a huge emotional booster rocket carrying them into the postseason.
Duke has the same odds as Auburn to cut down the nets. Here's a key stat: The Blue Devils are 5-1 against Q1 teams compared with 7-4 for the Tigers. That and good old-fashioned momentum make Duke the better play between Duke and Auburn two and maybe the entire field.
No. 3 Baylor Bears (+1500)
8 of 10
Record: 25-5
NET Ranking: 5
This is that team.
Don't look now, but the defending champs are rounding into form.
They've won six of seven, including that come-from-behind defeat of Kansas last weekend. Defense led the way as it often does for the Bears, holding the Jayhawks to just 24-of-70 shooting and 7-of-28 from three. It's a team that does the little things. The Bears are 20th in the nation with 16.2 turnovers forced per game. They draw charges. They're relentless on the offensive glass, snapping up 12.8 per contest, which is 16th in the country.
With their two best players, Adam Flagler and James Akinjo, both returning from last season's title team, this is a group that knows how to win, including under the bright lights. That attribute and that sense of continuity, while intangible to an extent, simply can't be overrated, not in this environment of transient talent.
They'll have to surprise some people to get all the way to the top, but there's genuine value given the +1500 odds. There are worse wagers one could make.
No. 2 Arizona Wildcats (+700)
9 of 10
Record: 25-3
NET Ranking: 2
Ben Mathurin is a projected lottery pick in this year's NBA draft, per Wasserman, and he's leading the Wildcats to a strong campaign. After last year's postseason ban, the dominance they've wreaked on the Pac-12 shows they're keen to make up for lost time.
In their first season under new coach Tommy Lloyd, Mathurin and the Wildcats have flourished, playing a high-intensity style that has them sixth nationally in KenPom's adjusted tempo ratings and 10th nationally in field-goal percentage (48.9).
Saturday's loss to Colorado wasn't great, with their 63 points being their second-lowest output of the season. Mathurin didn't score in the second half. They've still won nine of 10, though, with a 13-3 record over Q1 and Q2.
It would be hard to imagine the Wildcats swooning all the way out of their projected No. 1 Dance seed. That should mean a favorable draw.
This Arizona squad may not be an all-time great, but it could well be good enough.
No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (+350)
10 of 10
Record: 24-3
NET Ranking: 1
Gonzaga's loss to St. Mary's was tough, but if you're Gonzaga you tip your cap, you chalk it up, and you move on. There's no way Drew Timme gets anyway near 2-of-10 again, easily his worst shooting game of the season.
Nevertheless, fair and unanswered questions linger after the loss to a crucible-tested Baylor team in last year's national final. It's unclear the extent to which the WCC can prepare its top program for a hard carry in March. Gonzaga has to prove that the regular-season mastery can convert to the biggest postseason stages.
This is captured in the Bulldogs' 8-3 record against Q1 teams. That's a fine mark, but it shows that they're fallible and that they get fat and happy off lower-tier teams—witness their 13-0 mark against Q4, the largest workload for that tier among the Top 25, with the exception of Murray State.
To put it another way, I need to see the Zags actually do it before I'll have any faith they can do it. A bit of a logical Mobius strip I realize, but that's no more confusing than Gonzaga's perennial status as a loaded team that can't find a way over the hump, try as it might. Maybe this is the year, maybe not, but in the meantime there are safer plays and plays with bigger upside.
Stats courtesy of ESPN and the NCAA unless otherwise noted. All stats and odds up to date heading into Monday's games.
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