5 High-Seed Teams Most at Risk of Losing Early in 2022 Men's NCAA Tournament

No matter what happens when the men's NCAA tournament begins, earning a high seed in March Madness is a real accomplishment. An early loss, though, understandably minimizes the excitement.

The unfortunate part is college basketball fans can regularly see those upsets coming. Last year at this time, we pointed out five programs that either were struggling or starting to show problematic warning signs. None of them advanced to the Sweet 16.

Pretty high bar to match, but a worthy challenge once again.

Each team listed holds a projected No. 5 seed or better, according to the most recent Bracket Matrix update.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

Projected Seed: 5

Thanks to the strength of its victories, Alabama is still a well-regarded team in bracketology. This season, the Crimson Tide have victories over Gonzaga, full-strength Houston and Baylor.

They've also dropped 10 games. It's really that simple.

While the best version of this roster has the upside of a true national contender, Alabama is just 6-8 outside of Tuscaloosa. Most notably, the Tide have dreadful road losses to Missouri and Georgia, along with neutral-site letdowns to Iona and Davidson.

Alabama launches three-pointers at the country's 13th-highest rate but ranks a miserable 299th in long-range percentage. If perimeter shots aren't falling in March, the Tide may be eliminated quickly.

UCLA Bruins

Rebecca Noble/Getty Images

Projected Seed: 4

In multiple ways, the Bruins are desperate for better luck.

UCLA has dealt with a string of injuries, recently missing top scorer Johnny Juzang and leading passer Tyger Campbell for a game apiece. Head coach Mick Cronin has limited minutes in February outings for both Jaime Jaquez and Cody Riley, too.

Given that context, it's not a major surprise the Bruins are only 5-4 this month. Although the road slate has included the Pac-12's three top challengers, they're 2-4 on the road in that stretch.

UCLA might be closer to full strength in a few weeks, and the experience of last season's Final Four trip certainly won't hurt in March. The best-case scenario isn't a far-fetched dream.

Still, the Bruins are running short on time to recover and sustain the performance that propelled them to a 16-2 start.

Providence Friars

Mitchell Layton/Getty Images

Projected Seed: 4

One month in the future, Providence might make any of us questioning this squad look foolish. After all, the Friars have stormed out to an unexpected, fantastic 24-3 record.

Can't fault anybody for being uneasy, though.

Providence holds a 14-2 mark in Big East action, but 10 of those triumphs have included a margin of eight points or fewer—including three overtime wins in February alone. In total, the Friars have 14 such victories this season, which is eerily comparable to 2010-11 UConn (16) and 2011-12 Duke (15).

UConn won the national title; Duke lost to a No. 15 seed.

Providence's propensity for winning close games—a trend that applies to Wisconsin this year, too—is both worthy of immense respect and a definite reason for concern.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Michael Allio/Associated Press

Projected Seed: 4

Similar to UCLA, results are telling the story for the Illini.

They owned a 13-4 mark through 17 games—the last of which was a double-overtime loss to Purdue. In that matchup, star guard Andre Curbelo made his long-awaited return from a concussion and scored 20 points. You'd be easily forgiven if you thought Illinois, now at full strength, could put together a late-season surge.

After falling to Maryland, the Illini managed a four-game winning streak but have since alternated losses and wins. The main culprit is inconsistent long-range shooting, which had been a major strength.

Illinois can alter this perception with a deep run through the Big Ten tournament, and Curbelo—even amid uncertainty about his role—is a pretty incredible X-factor to have in March. But the Illini are trending in the wrong direction.

Purdue Boilermakers

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Projected Seed: 2

"Defense wins championships" may be tiring to hear, but it's difficult to say the phrase is overused when it's undeniably true.

Purdue ranks No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. Dating back to 2002, though, no national champion has finished no lower than 22nd in the defensive metric. In the final days before March Madness, the Boilers are 105th. This weakness has been sounding alarms throughout the season.

Look no further than 2021 for evidence of why it matters, too.

Big Ten counterparts Iowa (75th in AdjD) and Ohio State (82nd) both landed No. 2 seeds in the Big Dance. Iowa fell in the second round, and 15th-seeded Oral Roberts upset the Buckeyes right away.

Perhaps the bracket will bring a favorable matchup, and Purdue's offensive brilliance can shine. Still, two decades of evidence paint a troublesome picture for the Boilermakers.

Statistics courtesy of KenPom.com or Sports Reference, unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.