The Most Surprising Men's College Basketball Conference Contenders in 2021-22
Three months ago, Wisconsin felt like a bubble team, Marquette was a gigantic question mark while sporting a new head coach and Wake Forest was supposed to be one of the worst major-conference teams in the country. But those three men's college basketball programs (and several others) are shockingly vying for regular-season conference titles and/or sitting in great shape for a spot in the NCAA tournament field.
Last week, we touched on the biggest individual winners and the biggest team losers from all the noteworthy conferences. Now it's time to focus on the teams that have surprised us the most with their (extreme Borat voice for an extremely outdated reference) great success.
For each of these teams, we'll be comparing their conference standing to where they were projected in the preseason by Three Man Weave, which put together in-depth, many-thousand-word previews for each conference over the summer.
If even those guys couldn't see these teams coming, surely everyone else has been surprised too.
Not every major conference will be highlighted. Of particular note, both the SEC and WCC are headed for multiple bids, but neither has a team that is surprisingly in the mix for one of those bids.
But for the conferences that do have an unexpected contender, we'll start with five major conferences before finishing with four mid-majors.
ACC: Wake Forest Demon Deacons
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Three Man Weave Projection (14th out of 15): "It might not look pretty at the onset, but the Deacs could be a tough out when the dog days of conference play heat up."
Current Record: 20-5 overall, 10-4 in ACC
Wake Forest went 6-16 last season and then lost pretty much everyone except for Daivien Williamson and Isaiah Mucius. Steve Forbes had little choice but to rely heavily on the transfer portal. However, the Demon Deacons didn't attract any of the biggest names available. Stadium's Jeff Goodman put together a ranking of the 101 top transfers this offseason, and while Wake Forest added four experienced players, not one of them appeared in that top 101.
Expecting this team to finish in next-to-last place in what is usually one of the best conferences in the country was completely justified.
Lo and behold, that quartet of transfers has been outstanding.
Former Oklahoma Sooner Alondes Williams is on the short list of legitimate candidates for ACC Player of the Year, averaging 19.8 points, 7.0 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game. But he's no one-man show. Indiana State transfer Jake LaRavia is also filling up the stat sheet on a nightly basis with 15.1 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists and a combined 2.5 blocks and steals per game. Dallas Walton (via Colorado) has been a solid rim-protector as Wake's starting center, and Khadim Sy (via Ole Miss) has been a great sixth man.
All four of those imports are shooting better than 60 percent inside the arc, propelling what has been a surprisingly efficient offense to what should be a top-five finish in the ACC.
Big 12: Iowa State Cyclones
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Three Man Weave Projection (10th out of 10): "[T.J. Otzelberger's] homecoming feels like a storybook narrative under construction, but this novel will take time to write. This season could be another eyesore, but the Clones should be back in the hunt in a few years' time."
Current Record: 16-8 overall, 3-8 in Big 12
Iowa State is most certainly not a contender to win the Big 12. In fact, after Tuesday's loss to West Virginia, the Cyclones are in last place and would need to win out just to maybe finish in fourth place.
But Iowa State could still reach the Sweet 16 without it feeling like much of a surprise, which is absolutely not something anyone would have uttered in the preseason.
The Cyclones went 2-22 in 2020-21, lost 86.7 percent of the scoring from that roster and fired head coach Steve Prohm. You could have told me they would finish in 11th place in the 10-team Big 12 and I might have believed you.
But much like Shaka Smart at Marquette, Otzelberger swooped in with a night-and-day transformation on the defensive end. Iowa State had not finished a season in the top 40 in adjusted defensive efficiency since 2004-05, and its average year-end rank in six seasons under Steve Prohm was 100.8. Nevertheless, Otzelberger has the Cyclones in the top 10 in the category, as they apply relentless pressure along the perimeter, force a lot of turnovers and contest a ton of three-point looks.
Unfortunately, the offense has woefully failed the Cyclones in Big 12 play. In recent losses to TCU and Texas, they were held to 44 and 41 points, respectively. Even in the early-January win over Texas Tech, they only managed 51 points. But anything other than a last-place finish in the Big 12 would count as exceeding preseason expectations.
With only one game left against the top tier of Baylor, Kansas, Texas and Texas Tech (at Baylor to end the regular season), Iowa State should be able to claw its way back to the middle of the Big 12 standings.
Big East: Marquette Golden Eagles
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Three Man Weave Projection (9th out of 11): "Despite [Shaka] Smart carrying many of the same flaws at Texas that got Wojo [Steve Wojciechowski] fired in Marquette (primarily: not winning nearly enough with a bevy of talent and resources), optimism around this new fit is reasonable, though his first team may be too unbalanced towards the defensive end of the floor."
Current Record: 16-8 overall, 8-5 in Big East
Everyone under the sun assumed (correctly) that Marquette would at least improve on defense under Smart. Even while things were going poorly at Texas, those teams still defended just as well as his "havoc" days at VCU. And we will generously say that defense was not a strength for Marquette during Wojciechowski's seven-year run as head coach.
The unknown was whether the Golden Eagles would be able to do, well, anything on offense after losing more than 82 percent of last year's scoring.
But just like Johnny Davis at Wisconsin, Marquette's Justin Lewis has exploded, going from sixth man as a freshman to a strong candidate for Conference Player of the Year in his second season. Lewis has scored at least 17 points in just about every win of note. (And there have been quite a few of those.)
George Mason transfer Tyler Kolak has also been a revelation for the Golden Eagles. He was the primary perimeter option for the Patriots last year, but he has thrived at running the point for Smart, averaging 6.0 assists and 1.7 steals per game.
Thanks in large part to that duo, Marquette has swept Villanova and Seton Hall and has picked up quality wins over Xavier, Providence and Illinois. And with all of the games against the top half of the league out of the way, Marquette reasonably could win out and finish in first place in the Big East.
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Big Ten: Wisconsin Badgers
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Three Man Weave Projection (8th out of 14): "This will be a transition year for [Greg] Gard as he develops the next group of Badger greats. His team lacks proven talent, but there is potential at every position. If [Chucky] Hepburn or [Jahcobi] Neath can be serviceable at the point of attack, the Badgers should have enough size, burgeoning skill and leadership to stay competitive in the middle of the Big Ten."
Current Record: 19-4 overall, 10-3 in Big Ten
At least something was expected out of Wisconsin. The three teams we've discussed so far were projected for 14th out of 15, ninth out of 11 and 10th out of 10. Compared to that, Wisconsin at eighth out of 14 feels like high preseason praise.
But after the Badgers lost D'Mitrik Trice and basically the entire frontcourt (Micah Potter, Aleem Ford and Nate Reuvers) from a team that went just 10-10 in league play last year, even an eighth-place projection felt overly optimistic.
Yes, Brad Davison returned for what most other Big Ten fanbases must feel like is his 17th season, but the Badgers were going to need a bunch of breakout guys to emerge in order to have any hope of making the NCAA tournament, let alone winning the conference.
Emerge they did.
Johnny Davis is one of the top candidates for National Player of the Year, leading the Badgers in points, rebounds, assists and steals per game. Tyler Wahl has more than doubled his scoring average from last season. Steven Crowl has started every game and contributed at a high level in the post after playing just 39 minutes in 2020-21. And Hepburn has been mighty impressive for a true freshman point guard (though Davis primarily runs the offense).
Most of us assumed that if Wisconsin was going to be relevant this season, it would be because Cincinnati transfer Chris Vogt and Wake Forest transfer Neath made major impacts. Surprisingly, those guys have been minor role players for a fringe title contender.
Pac-12: Washington Huskies
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Three Man Weave Projection (11th out of 12): "Washington is a better program than it performed last season. ... Defense will definitely improve, but [Mike] Hopkins still has a lot to prove offensively to get back into the NCAA tournament conversation."
Current Record: 12-9 overall, 7-4 in Pac-12
It's a testament to the overall weakness of the Pac-12 that Washington—ranked well outside the top 100 on KenPom.com without anything close to a quality win—could be one big week away from storming into the mix for a regular-season title.
What the Huskies have done well, though, is win the turnover battle and let Terrell Brown Jr. cook.
On the former, they are plus-38 in turnover margin in their seven Pac-12 victories. Even in the loss at Arizona, they were plus-15 in turnovers thanks to 18 steals and ended up with 15 more field-goal attempts than the Wildcats. (Arizona still made more shots than Washington, though.) These Huskies can fluster any opposing backcourt.
And on the latter, Brown is one of the nation's top scorers at 22.0 points per game. The transfer from both Seattle and Arizona also averages 4.2 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game and will be a serious candidate for Pac-12 POY if Washington finishes the year in the top four.
As far as the aforementioned one big week is concerned, the Huskies host Arizona on Feb. 12 and play at USC and UCLA on Feb. 17 and 19, respectively. It'd be a sizable surprise if they win any of those three games. But if by some miracle they win all three, the Huskies just might vault into first place in the Pac-12.
Atlantic 10: Davidson Wildcats
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Three Man Weave Projection (6th out of 14): "With [Hyunjung] Lee and [Luka] Brajkovic around to lead the way and [Bob] McKillop roaming the sideline, that's enough to steal some huge wins, but it will likely prove to be too difficult to elevate all the way into at-large contention."
Current Record: 20-3 overall, 10-1 in A-10
Davidson was picked to finish in the top half of the Atlantic 10, so this team's success is much less shocking than that of any other on this list.
But after back-to-back seasons of finishing in 70th place on KenPom and after losing Kellan Grady as a transfer to Kentucky and Carter Collins as a transfer to Murray State, the Wildcats carried understandably muted expectations.
Instead, they are one of the country's winningest teams.
Since a 1-2 start, Davidson has reeled off 19 wins in its last 20 games. Many of them have been a bit too close for comfort thanks to a defense that leaves much to be desired, but this is such a proficient three-point-shooting team that it doesn't seem to matter.
The Wildcats shoot better than 40 percent from downtown as a squad. Michigan State transfer Foster Loyer has been the leader of that perimeter assault, draining 45.9 percent of his 122 attempts. Michael Jones has been equally lethal at 46.7 percent on 105 tries. Lee and Brajkovic have also been excellent.
Shutting down this offense simply isn't an option, and it is likely to result in an A-10 title. The home game against Saint Louis on Feb. 19 should determine whether they cruise to that crown or whether it's a photo finish.
Mountain West: Wyoming Cowboys
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Three Man Weave Projection (8th out of 11): "As much as I adore [Jeff] Linder's 'data ball' ingenuity, that alone will only elevate the Pokes so far. Considerable size and speed disadvantages remain."
Current Record: 20-3 overall, 9-1 in MWC
Over the past 18 seasons, Wyoming's best finish in the Mountain West standings was tying for fourth place in both 2004-05 and 2014-15, and its best year-end KenPom ranking was 90th in 2011-12. The Cowboys also lost the leading scorer (Marcus Williams) and the starting wing-forward (Kwane Marble) from a team that went just 14-11 last season.
In other words, a projected eighth-place finish for this team felt a bit optimistic and was probably more a product of the expected terribleness of New Mexico, Air Force and San Jose State than it was a belief that the Cowboys might be a legitimate middle-of-the-pack squad.
But now fully recovered from a torn ACL, Graham Ike has been a breakout star and arguably should be the Mountain West POY (or at least in a dead heat with Colorado State's David Roddy and Fresno State's Orlando Robinson for it). Drake Jeffries has blossomed from a good shooter into a deadly sniper from distance. And Hunter Maldonado is having one of the better stat-sheet-stuffing seasons since Denzel Valentine's senior year at Michigan State in 2015-16.
That trio has carried the Cowboys to new heights, as well as massive recent wins over both Colorado State and Boise State. Even if they don't win the conference, they are in good shape for what would be their first at-large bid since 2002.
Conference USA: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
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Three Man Weave Projection (14th out of 14): "[Nick] McDevitt simply has not been able to find the success here that he consistently had at UNC Asheville, and the fanbase is none too pleased with the Blue Raiders' output during his tenure. ... Barring unforeseen progress from across the roster, veterans and newcomers alike, it looks bleak for Middle Tennessee this year. "
Current Record: 15-7 overall, 6-3 in C-USA
MTSU went 5-18 last season and 24-62 overall in the past three seasons. Three of last year's four leading scorers left the program, and the fourth (Jalen Jordan) suffered a torn ACL before this season began.
Suffice it to say, a dead-last projection was justified.
Yet, here the Blue Raiders are, looking like the third- or fourth-best team in Conference USA and in a good position to win the East Division.
Green Bay transfer Josh Jefferson has been the leading scorer, but this is a classic "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts" team. No one is averaging better than 14.1 points, 4.5 rebounds or 2.6 assists per game. What the Blue Raiders do have is a nine-man rotation that forces a lot of turnovers and in which everyone does a little bit of everything.
It's all very reminiscent of the 2012-13 MTSU team that carried a 28-5 record into the NCAA tournament. This year's squad isn't that good and doesn't shoot anywhere near as well from three-point range as it did nine years ago, but winning with depth and turnover-forcing defense isn't a new concept in Murfreesboro.
Colonial Athletic Association: Towson and UNC-Wilmington
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Three Man Weave Projection (Towson) (8th out of 10): "Towson is usually a top-half CAA threat under [Pat] Skerry, and the Tigers should be able to play at that level in 2021-22. Skerry will need to mesh all his new pieces, but shooting and defense, two of Towson's major issues last year, should be much improved."
Three Man Weave Projection (UNC-Wilmington) (9th out of 10): "If everything clicks offensively, the players stay healthy, and [Takayo] Siddle's pressure scheme forces turnovers and bothers opponents effectively, a top-five finish is in play. However, if the defense is still the worst in the league and shooting remains dicey, the Seahawks may be looking at yet another sub-.500 CAA season."
Current Records: Towson: 17-7 overall, 8-3 in CAA; UNC-Wilmington: 16-7, 10-2 in CAA
Not only are UNC-Wilmington and Towson leading the conference after being expected to finish in the bottom three, but Northeastern—one of the preseason favorites to win the CAA—is in last with a 1-11 league record.
And it's not like just Three Man Weave whiffed on this one. In the preseason KenPom rankings, Northeastern was the second-highest rated among CAA teams, while Towson and UNC-Wilmington were in seventh and 10th, respectively.
This conference has simply been flipped on its head.
The funny thing is that first-place UNC-Wilmington is still in the bottom half of the league in all the predictive metrics, because the average margin of victory during its 9-0 start in conference play was just 5.1 points. During one stretch, the Seahawks won 11 consecutive games by eight points or fewer.
If and when that luck runs out, Towson looks like the best team in the league. The Tigers put up decent fights earlier this season away from home against both Ohio State and San Francisco, and they have gradually clawed their way from just barely in the KenPom top 250 to comfortably in the KenPom top 100. If they end up getting into the NCAA tournament, they could be a dangerous No. 14 seed.
Advanced statistics via KenPom.com unless otherwise noted.
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