Why Shane Wright Is Still the Top Prospect Available in the 2022 NHL Draft

The 2022 NHL draft class has long considered Shane Wright its valedictorian. It's not just that he was the consensus, or even unanimous, choice for top player available, but that the gulf between him and others was so massive as to eliminate any debate about alternatives.

The pedestal he has stood on is starting to show visible cracks, though. TSN's Bob McKenzie released midterm rankings in late January in which 10 NHL scouts revealed varying degrees of hesitancy about how solid Wright's status remained, while one even elevated Russian winger Ivan Miroshnichenko to first overall. The Daily Faceoff's Chris Peters now has University of Notre Dame commit Logan Cooley above Wright. The overwhelming consensus still believes Wright will and should be the first overall pick, but it no longer appears to be the lock it once was.

In 2019, Wright became the sixth player in Canadian Hockey League history to be granted exceptional status, allowing him to play in the 2019-20 OHL season as a 15-year-old. The center produced an astonishing 39 goals and 27 assists in 58 games with Kingston Frontenacs. Any doubts cast by the cancelling of the following OHL season due to COVID-19 were alleviated at the 2021 U18 World Championship, where Wright captained Canada to a gold medal as an underage player and finished second in the tournament in goals and joint-second in points.

So why has the perception changed?

The simplest explanation is that his production in the OHL is underwhelming this season. Wright has 16 goals and 29 assists in 33 games. His 1.36 points per game is only barely better than what he put together two years prior at 15, and he currently ranks just 20th among draft-eligible players in the OHL since 2012-13. At face value, that kind of output historically indicates a great prospect who could get picked in the top five, but not one who is in pole position for first overall.

On that account, the doubts are fair.

The numbers don't do him full justice, though. On Friday, Wright put an incredible 12 shots on goal against the Sudbury Wolves but came away with zero points. It's a microcosm of how the season has gone for him. His 12.9 shooting percentage is well below what one might expect for a player of his age and caliber, and especially because he shot 19.7 percent two years prior. Wright's shooting ability is singled out by many as one of his best traits. It's fair to wonder if pucks will start going in with increased frequency the rest of the season and, if so, how much that will quiet the noise.

Beyond that, though, is that so much of Wright's appeal is his 200-foot game. Wright sees the ice so well. It shows in his playmaking and his ability to get into shooting lanes with the puck, but it's just as evident in the more menial parts of the game. He gets to a lot of loose pucks. He forechecks well. He makes a ton of recoveries in the offensive end, winning back pucks that are initially lost to the opposition and recycling possession for his team. He breaks up opposing rushes in the neutral zone above the blue line. He's first over the boards for the penalty kill or any key faceoff scenario.

Does Wright need to get on the scoresheet more? Yes. But even when Wright is at his absolute best, nobody ever grouped him with the likes of a Connor McDavid or even a Steven Stamkos in terms of offensive skillset. From the beginning, Wright's evaluation as a top prospect was anchored to a full, two-way game.

In fact, one might wonder how much of the souring on Wright comes down to his playing style. McDavid is an elite skater. Auston Matthews has the best release in the world. Mikko Rantanen has incredible strength. Jack Hughes' movement with the puck is generational.

Wright doesn't have any standout traits that separate him from the pack nor which are appealing on a visceral level. Physically, he's above average but unspectacular in most regards but complements it all with a high level of processing ability on the ice. He almost always makes good decisions with the puck and forces the opposition to put a disproportionate amount of effort into defending against him. It's a lack of separating physical attributes that will hold him back compared to the elite handful of top NHL players.

"I just don't think Wright is a superstar in the making," mentioned one NHL scout.

A different NHL scout based in Ontario generally agreed but vehemently defended Wright as a top prospect, calling the emerging criticisms "overblown."

"He'll be fine. He'll play in the league next year and coaches will love him because you can play him anywhere in your lineup," the scout said.

Therein lies the tradeoff with Wright. He may lack the upside of some previous first overall picks and may not win any individual trophies, but the diversity and maturity within his game make it hard to imagine many scenarios where he doesn't pan out as a high-caliber player in some form.

Rasmus Dahlin had to fight off Andrei Svechnikov in 2018 while Hughes had Kaapo Kakko on his tail in 2019. In a different year, Wright's place atop the draft board might be in serious jeopardy. But for him to fall requires someone else to dethrone him. There are some exciting players available in the 2022 draft class, but there are simply none who are seriously challenging Wright at the moment.

"He's a franchise center. Maybe not generational but solid. I know the cliche is (Patrice) Bergeron and (Jonathan) Toews, but that's what he is. He's not going to be a highlight-reel, score a Michigan type of guy, but he'll be your captain for 15 years," the Ontario scout said.

That's a difficult type of player to pass on. There's still time until the July 7-8 draft for another player to change the landscape with an incredible run of form. It also only takes one NHL team to go against the grain and have a different idea. Nonetheless, it's difficult to imagine whichever team wins the draft lottery walking up to the podium and selecting anyone first overall besides Shane Wright.