MLB MVP 2021: Odds and Predictions for NL, AL Awards
With the Atlanta Braves' historic World Series win over the Houston Astros on Tuesday night, the 2021 MLB season is officially complete.
Fans of teams who didn't make it to October this season have a fresh slate to look forward to, and players who dominated the American League and National League this season may soon be able to celebrate a league MVP nod.
On November 11 on MLB Network, a week-plus of Major League Baseball awards will conclude with the NL and AL winners being announced. There's a clear favorite in the AL and a less-clear front-runner in the NL, but bettors should find this year's race isn't as agonizing as those in seasons past.
Let's take a look at the top candidates for each league crown and their odds of winning, and then make predictions for both awards.
Odds via Vegas Insider.
American League
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AL MVP Odds
Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles) -5000 (bet $5,000 to win $100)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Toronto) +1200 (bet $100 to win $1,200)
There is no question that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had a monster of a season.
The Toronto Blue Jays first baseman did everything a team could ask, hitting for power (his 48 home runs led the major leagues) and also for average, getting on base with an average of .311.
"Vlad's not only hitting with the same power numbers, but he's hitting with more average and getting on base more," Blue Jays pitcher Robbie Ray said, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. "For me, that makes the case right there. Obviously Ohtani pitches as well, so that gives him a little bit of an upper hand. But if you take the two hitters, you can't argue that Vlad's not better."
But as even Ray said, obviously, Ohtani pitches as well. What the Los Angeles Angels star has accomplished this season hasn't been seen since the likes of Babe Ruth.
His 46 home runs, 100 RBI and a .965 OPS are nothing to sneeze at, and he did it while going 9-2 with a 3.18 ERA. In 130.1 innings, he struck out 156 batters.
By season's end, Ohtani led the majors in Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement (9.0) and FanGraphs WAR (8.1).
When it comes down to it, in most any other seasons, Guerrero would have been a shoo-in for the AL award. But Ohtani's clutchness and ability to help the team at a high level as a two-way player are so special and so unprecedented that they simply can't be overlooked.
Prediction: Shohei Ohtani
National League
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NL MVP Odds
Bryce Harper (Philadelphia) -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
Juan Soto (Washington) +325 (bet $100 to win $325)
Fernando Tatis Jr. (San Diego) +600
Paul Goldschmidt (St. Louis) +5000
Unlike the American League, the National League features a tight MVP race.
Sometimes candidates rise and fall with their team's fortunes, and Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies got hot at the right time, as the outfielder amassed 18 home runs in August and September, with an OPS above 1.100 in each month. On the season, he had 35 home runs with 84 RBI for an average of .309.
It wasn't enough to get the Phillies into the playoffs, though; in fact, the top favorites for the award in Harper, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. all played for non-contenders. That doesn't always sit well with MVP voters, but there's no question these names represented the cream of the NL this season.
The race has narrowed to Harper and Soto, who hit .313 with 29 home runs and 95 RBI as the Nationals finished last in the NL East. But Harper's excellence in the race to a playoff berth captivated MLB, and it certainly caused Soto to be a bit overlooked.
When it comes down to WAR, Soto's value becomes even more apparent. He earned a 6.5 fWAR (FanGraphs) and 7.0 bWAR (Baseball-Reference), the latter of which led all players. Harper, on the other hand, landed at 6.6 fWAR and 5.9 bWAR.
Still, Harper's Phillies dominated headlines toward the end of the season, while Soto's Nationals slunk into obscurity.
And while Soto's pure hitting and fielding were of utmost value to his team, Harper clearly won the power numbers game, easily topping the major leagues in OPS at 1.044.
Soto made a great case, but Harper takes the edge.
Prediction: Bryce Harper
