Predicting Every 2021 MLB Gold Glove Award Winner
With the World Series coming to a conclusion, MLB postseason award season is right around the corner, and the annual Gold Glove awards will be among the hardware handed out.
The three finalists at each position in each league were announced on Oct. 28, setting the stage for the winners to be announced on ESPN at 8:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 7.
In the American League, shortstop J.P. Crawford and right fielder Joey Gallo are all up for the award after winning it a year ago. Over in the National League, pitcher Max Fried, second baseman Kolten Wong, third baseman Nolan Arenado, left fielder Tyler O'Neill and right fielder Mookie Betts all have a chance to repeat as winners.
Before the winners are announced, let's take a deep dive into the defensive metrics for each player and pick the most deserving winner among the finalists.
Framing (FRM), Defensive Rating (DEF), Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 Chances (UZR/150) and Outfield Arm Runs (ARM) are all defensive metrics that we used to determine our pick and referenced in the article here. For a further explanation of each metric, take a look at the FanGraphs glossary.
Let the debate begin!
AL Catcher
1 of 18
The Finalists
Martin Maldonado, HOU: 12.0 DEF, -2 DRS, 39.6 CS%, 1.3 FRM
Sean Murphy, OAK: 19.6 DEF, 10 DRS, 24.1 CS%, 9.7 FRM
Salvador Perez, KC: -5.9 DEF, -5 DRS, 43.9 CS%, -19.5 FRM
Advanced metrics don't love his work behind the plate, but Salvador Perez did lead the majors in caught stealing percentage while allowing only one passed ball in 1,003.2 innings behind the plate. He was also statistically the worst pitch-framer in baseball, and his spot among the finalists should have gone to Max Stassi, who finished first in MLB in FRM (12.0) and second in DEF (17.1).
Martin Maldonado controlled the running game well as he usually does, was an above-average pitch-framer, and deserves credit for the job he did anchoring a young Houston Astros rotation that exceeded expectations.
However, Sean Murphy is the clear pick from a statistical standpoint. He led all catchers in DEF, his 10 DRS are tied with Stassi for tops among AL catchers, and he was one of the best framers in baseball. The 27-year-old does not have the reputation of the two veterans, but he is the most deserving candidate.
Winner: Sean Murphy, OAK
NL Catcher
2 of 18
The Finalists
Yadier Molina, STL: 9.6 DEF, 6 DRS, 40.9 CS%, -2.0 FRM
J.T. Realmuto, PHI: 16.9 DEF, 0 DRS, 26.3 CS%, 8.6 FRM
Jacob Stallings, PIT: 16.4 DEF, 21 DRS, 21.1 CS%, 8.8 FRM
Future Hall of Famer Yadier Molina is a nine-time Gold Glove winner, but he has not taken home the hardware since 2018. He still has a rocket behind the plate and does as good a job as any catcher in baseball handling a staff, but his pitch-framing numbers dipped into the negatives for the first time since FanGraphs began tracking the stat in 2008.
J.T. Realmuto won NL Gold Glove honors in 2019, and he remains a well-rounded backstop with good framing skills, a strong arm and rare athleticism for the position.
With all due respect to those two and the rest of the NL catcher field, though, Jacob Stallings should be a no-brainer. His 21 DRS tied with Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa for the MLB lead among all position players. The 31-year-old was a 3.0-WAR player almost entirely on the strength of his defense, and he moves extremely well behind the plate despite his large, 6'5" frame.
Winner: Jacob Stallings, PIT
AL First Baseman
3 of 18
The Finalists
Yuli Gurriel, HOU: 5 DRS, -0.2 UZR/150
Matt Olson, OAK: 6 DRS, 1.6 UZR/150
Jared Walsh, LAA: -2 DRS, 1.0 UZR/150
Good defense at first base can go a long way toward improving an infield unit's effectiveness, but it's also hard to argue that it's anything but the least important defensive position on the field.
Yuli Gurriel has seen sporadic action at second base and third base in his career, and Jared Walsh played 147.2 innings in right field in 2021, so it's not surprising to see those two rank among the better defensive first basemen in the league. The athleticism to handle other positions sets them apart from first-base-only players.
However, Matt Olson looks like the best candidate to win, with six DRS to lead all AL first basemen. The 27-year-old, who won Gold Glove honors in 2018 and 2019, moves fluidly around the bag, has soft hands and picks it as well as anyone.
Winner: Matt Olson, OAK
NL First Baseman
4 of 18
The Finalists
Freddie Freeman, ATL: 2 DRS, -1.7 UZR/150
Paul Goldschmidt, STL: 10 DRS, 3.2 UZR/150
Max Muncy, LAD: 6 DRS, 6.3 UZR/150
Freddie Freeman won a Gold Glove in 2018 and remains a rock-solid option at first base for the Atlanta Braves, but his defensive metrics are down a bit from where they were a few years ago.
St. Louis Cardinals star Paul Goldschmidt was tops at the position in both leagues with 10 DRS, and with Gold Glove wins on his resume in 2013, 2015 and 2017, he has long been viewed as one of the standouts at first base.
The versatile Max Muncy played a career-high 901 innings at first base in 2021 after bouncing around the infield in past seasons. Given his ability to handle those other positions, it's not surprising his 6.3 UZR/150 led all first basemen with at least 500 innings at that position, and that gives him the edge.
Winner: Max Muncy, LAD
AL Second Baseman
5 of 18
The Finalists
David Fletcher, LAA: 1.7 DEF, 12 DRS, -0.3 UZR/150
Whit Merrifield, KC: 8.3 DEF, 14 DRS, 5.0 UZR/150
Marcus Semien, TOR: 8.5 DEF, 11 DRS, 6.6 UZR/150
This trio was head and shoulders above everyone else defensively among AL second basemen, and whoever takes home the hardware will be a first-time winner.
David Fletcher is a notch below the other two in terms of range and overall impact, though his 12 DRS shows he was an impactful defender for the Los Angeles Angels.
Props to Whit Merrifield for the significant strides he made after posting negative defensive metrics (minus-two DRS, -2.1 UZR/150) last year, while Marcus Semien also deserves credit for learning a new position on the fly after playing shortstop during his time with the Oakland Athletics. It's a coin toss between the two, with Semien holding a big enough edge in the range department to get the nod.
Winner: Marcus Semien, TOR
NL Second Baseman
6 of 18
The Finalists
Ozzie Albies, ATL: 4.4 DEF, 1 DRS, 2.5 UZR/150
Tommy Edman, STL: 3.0 DEF, 6 DRS, 2.0 UZR/150
Kolten Wong, MIL: 6.3 DEF, 6 DRS, 5.6 UZR/150
Kolten Wong, the reigning NL Gold Glove winner two years running, looks like he might take it home for the third year in a row. He has the statistical edge across the board, and he also passes the eye test with flying colors, turning in several highlight-reel plays throughout the season.
Tommy Edman was his replacement in St. Louis, and after serving in a super-utility role during his first two MLB seasons, he settled in nicely as an everyday second baseman. The 26-year-old actually played more third base and outfield in 2019 and 2020.
The finalist nod for Ozzie Albies probably should have gone to Jake Cronenworth (5.8 DEF, 5 DRS, 6.8 UZR/150), though his reputation as a standout defender is undeniable.
Winner: Kolten Wong, MIL
AL Third Baseman
7 of 18
The Finalists
Matt Chapman, OAK: 11.0 DEF, 10 DRS, 8.8 UZR/150
Jose Ramirez, CLE: 7.9 DEF, 10 DRS, 6.7 UZR/150
Joey Wendle, TB: 1.1 DEF, 2 DRS, -0.6 UZR/150
Matt Chapman won back-to-back Gold Glove Awards in 2018 and 2019 before Isiah Kiner-Falefa unseated him last year. With the Texas Rangers infielder shifting to shortstop in 2021, Chapman is poised to reclaim his throne.
While he does not quite stack up in the range department, Jose Ramirez is more than deserving of his finalist nod. After logging minus-six DRS a year ago, he was elite at the hot corner this year, only adding to his tremendous value.
Joey Wendle was a plus defender at second base (116.2 INN, 2 DRS, 8.5 UZR/150) and shortstop (198.2 INN, 6 DRS, 22.4 UZR/150) on top of his solid work at third base. It's sometimes tough to compare a utility guy to someone who handles the position every day.
Winner: Matt Chapman, OAK
NL Third Baseman
8 of 18
The Finalists
Nolan Arenado, STL: 8.0 DEF, 6 DRS, 4.9 UZR/150
Manny Machado, SD: 7.3 DEF, 6 DRS, 4.3 UZR/150
Ryan McMahon, COL: 7.5 DEF, 12 DRS, 7.6 UZR/150
Nolan Arenado won the NL Gold Glove in each of his eight MLB seasons with the Colorado Rockies, cementing his place as one of the best defensive third basemen in MLB history. That streak alone might be reason enough for the voters to give him the nod in a tight race statistically.
As usual, Manny Machado was a rock-solid defender at the hot corner, though he is not the same dynamic athlete he was early in his career with the Baltimore Orioles. He won the AL Gold Glove in 2013 and 2015.
Statistically, Ryan McMahon has a great case for being the NL winner, and he could give Arenado a run for his money in the coming years. The fact that he also spent 52 games and 368.1 innings at second base in 2021 could work against him, as voters tend to favor everyday guys.
Winner: Nolan Arenado, STL
AL Shortstop
9 of 18
The Finalists
Carlos Correa, HOU: 9.6 DEF, 21 DRS, 3.1 UZR/150
J.P. Crawford, SEA: 8.1 DEF, 8 DRS, 0.2 UZR/150
Andrelton Simmons, MIN: 5.5 DEF, 14 DRS, -1.1 UZR/150
In a contract year, Carlos Correa not only had a terrific season at the plate, but he also tied for the MLB lead with 21 DRS while showcasing his usual plus range and rocket arm at shortstop for the Houston Astros. The 27-year-old has racked up 68 DRS in seven MLB seasons.
Andrelton Simmons is the best defensive shortstop of his generation, and while his range has diminished in recent years, he is still as smooth and reliable as anyone in baseball at the position. J.P. Crawford won the AL Gold Glove last year, and he figures to be a finalist for years to come.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (8.2 DEF, 11 DRS, 1.1 UZR/150) and Nicky Lopez (11.5 DEF, 3 DRS, 4.6 UZR/150) both deserve a mention despite not being named as a finalist.
Winner: Carlos Correa, HOU
NL Shortstop
10 of 18
The Finalists
Brandon Crawford, SF: 8.6 DEF, 6 DRS, 3.4 UZR/150
Francisco Lindor, NYM: 5.2 DEF, 4 DRS, -0.3 UZR/150
Kevin Newman, PIT: 11.9 DEF, 9 DRS, 7.6 UZR/150
As a three-time Gold Glove winner who enjoyed a bounce-back season for a San Francisco Giants team that finished with the best record in baseball, Brandon Crawford has to be considered the favorite to take home the Gold Glove Award.
However, little-known Kevin Newman is the more deserving candidate after he led all starting shortstops in DEF and UZR/150. The 28-year-old had a brutal 56 OPS+ in 554 plate appearances, but he was still a positive-WAR player thanks to his glove.
Francisco Lindor was solid as usual, but Miguel Rojas (MIA) and Trevor Story (COL) both had better seasons statistically, and his selection feels largely reputation-based.
Winner: Kevin Newman, PIT
AL Left Fielder
11 of 18
The Finalists
Randy Arozarena, TB: 7 DRS, 4.4 UZR/150, 0.7 ARM
Andrew Benintendi, KC: 7 DRS, 5.5 UZR/150, -1.0 ARM
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., TOR: 7 DRS, -0.5 UZR/150, 7.2 ARM
Originally signed and developed as a middle infielder, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. made a smooth transition to the outfield in the big leagues where his strong arm is a major asset. His 12 outfield assists ranked fourth among all outfielders and tops among left fielders.
Rookie standout Randy Arozarena has the tools to play center field, but since he shares the Tampa Bay outfield with Kevin Kiermaier, he is slotted in left field for the time being. Don't be surprised if he is contending for Gold Gloves in center field a few years from now.
Likewise, Andrew Benintendi has played left field throughout his career in deference to superior center fielders. First, it was Jackie Bradley Jr. in Boston, and now Michael A. Taylor in Kansas City. He could play up the middle if needed but instead is a standout at a corner spot.
Winner: Lourdes Gurriel Jr., TOR
NL Left Fielder
12 of 18
The Finalists
Tyler O'Neill, STL: 12 DRS, 7.4 UZR/150, 2.8 ARM
David Peralta, ARI: 0 DRS, 1.2 UZR/150, 0.0 ARM
AJ Pollock, LAD: 3 DRS, -2.9 UZR/150, -1.0 ARM
This might be the most lopsided Gold Glove race in baseball.
Tyler O'Neill was in a league of his own defensively among NL left fielders, and after winning his first Gold Glove a year ago, he is a lock to add a second to his trophy cabinet this offseason. He led all left fielders who played at least 500 innings at the position with 12 DRS and ranked third in UZR/150 and ARM.
AJ Pollock and David Peralta used to share the outfield for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and both have a Gold Glove win on their resume. Pollock won as a center fielder back in 2015, while Peralta was the left field winner in 2019.
Winner: Tyler O'Neill, STL
AL Center Fielder
13 of 18
The Finalists
Kevin Kiermaier, TB: 13 DRS, 12.1 UZR/150, 1.2 ARM
Myles Straw, HOU/CLE: 5 DRS, 8.5 UZR/150, 0.4 ARM
Michael A. Taylor, KC: 19 DRS, 13.9 UZR/150, 5.1 ARM
One of the game's elite defensive center fielders throughout his career, Kevin Kiermaier has three Gold Glove wins and 2015 Platinum Glove honors on his resume already. A 31st-round pick in 2010, he has racked up 30.7 career WAR largely thanks to his defense.
Standing in his way of adding a fourth Gold Glove is Michael A. Taylor. The 30-year-old made good on a one-year, $1.75 million deal with the Kansas City Royals by leading all outfielders with 19 DRS and showcasing elite range patrolling center field at Kauffman Stadium.
Speedy Myles Straw held his own in his first season as an everyday player after previously serving in a bench role with the Houston Astros. If he had stayed healthy, Byron Buxton might have run away with the award, as he tallied 10 DRS in just 509.2 innings in center field.
Winner: Michael A. Taylor, KC
NL Center Fielder
14 of 18
The Finalists
Harrison Bader, STL: 15 DRS, 15.1 UZR/150, 0.9 ARM
Jackie Bradley Jr., MIL: 9 DRS, 13.6 UZR/150, 1.3 ARM
Bryan Reynolds, PIT: -5 DRS, -5.6 UZR/150, -4.3 ARM
Harrison Bader has 39 DRS in 2,881 career innings in center field, and his 15 DRS in 2021 led all center fielders. With top-of-the-scale speed and great instincts, a Gold Glove win has been inevitable since he first debuted, and this should be the year he walks away with the award.
The only thing that kept Jackie Bradley Jr. in the lineup was his glove, as he was quite literally baseball's least productive offensive player with a 34 OPS+ in 428 plate appearances. He has been one of the game's best up the middle throughout his career.
The addition of Bryan Reynolds as a finalist is a bit surprising. There is no obvious candidate who is more deserving, but San Diego Padres center fielder Trent Grisham (8 DRS, -3.1 UZR/150, -2.1 ARM) has better metrics across the board.
Winner: Harrison Bader, STL
AL Right Fielder
15 of 18
The Finalists
Joey Gallo, TEX/NYY: 11 DRS, 3.8 UZR/150, 1.6 ARM
Hunter Renfroe, BOS: 0 DRS, -2.1 UZR/150, 1.7 ARM
Kyle Tucker, HOU: 11 DRS, 0.5 UZR/150, -4.0 ARM
First things first: why isn't Aaron Judge (11 DRS, 5.4 UZR/150, 2.1 ARM) a finalist?
Hunter Renfroe tied for the MLB lead with 16 outfield assists, and Joey Gallo was tied for third on that list with 14 assists, but Judge actually had the better ARM metric for the overall value provided by his outfield arm.
The fact that Kyle Tucker is playing center field in the World Series right now speaks to his athleticism, and he will be one to watch going forward as he continues to settle into his spot in the Minute Maid Park outfield.
This was one of the tougher calls, but Gallo is the most well-rounded of the three candidates, and he was also the winner in 2020.
Winner: Joey Gallo, TEX/NYY
NL Right Fielder
16 of 18
The Finalists
Mookie Betts, LAD: 4 DRS, 4.7 UZR/150, 0.6 ARM
Adam Duvall, MIA/ATL: 9 DRS, 11.2 UZR/150, 3.6 ARM
Mike Yastrzemski, SF: 5 DRS, -3.2 UZR/150, -3.8 ARM
Adam Duvall played primarily left field during his time with the Cincinnati Reds, he spent his time with the Miami Marlins this year manning right field, and now he's been tasked with patrolling center field for the Atlanta Braves during their postseason run. He has been a standout defensive outfielder throughout his career, and a Gold Glove win is long overdue.
Mookie Betts has won the award five years in a row, including his first NL Gold Glove last year in his Los Angeles Dodgers debut, but his metrics don't quite stack up to what we've seen from him in years past. Will reputation be enough to keep his streak alive?
San Francisco Giants outfielder Mike Yastrzemski does a nice job bouncing between right field and center field, and the outfield at Oracle Park is not an easy place to play.
Winner: Adam Duvall, MIA/ATL
AL Pitcher
17 of 18
The Finalists
Jose Berrios, MIN/TOR: 5 DRS, 23 assists, 4 errors
Zack Greinke, HOU: 5 DRS, 20 assists, 0 errors
Dallas Keuchel, CWS: 12 DRS, 40 assists, 1 error
For the most part, pitchers tend to just stay out of the way and let the defense behind them do its job.
That makes any pitcher capable of going above and beyond an asset defensively, and Dallas Keuchel certainly did that in leading all pitchers with 40 assists and 12 DRS. He has four Gold Gloves already and appears to be headed for a fifth.
Jose Berrios is a terrific athlete on the mound and makes plays other pitchers wouldn't even attempt, while Zack Greinke is a six-time winner and a good athlete in his own right.
Winner: Dallas Keuchel, CWS
NL Pitcher
18 of 18
The Finalists
Zach Davies, CHC: 6 DRS, 22 assists, 0 errors
Max Fried, ATL: 6 DRS, 37 assists, 1 error
Zack Wheeler, PHI: 5 DRS, 26 assists, 2 errors
Max Fried won his first Gold Glove Award last season, and with an NL-leading 37 assists and only one error this year, he is poised to repeat. He would join Phil Niekro and Greg Maddux as repeat winners for the Atlanta Braves.
Zack Wheeler had a career-high 26 assists in 2021, while Zach Davies topped 20 assists for the fourth time in the last six years. Pitcher defense is not easy to gauge, but looking at how many plays a pitcher made while fielding his position is usually a good indication of how engaged he is defensively.
Winner: Max Fried, ATL
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
