World Series 2021: Astros vs. Braves Game 5, Pitching Preview Predictions
The Houston Astros are down 3-1 to Atlanta in the World Series, but on paper they still hold an advantage in the pitching matchup going into Game 5.
Houston will send Framber Valdez back to the mound for his second start of the series, while Atlanta has to piece together a second consecutive bullpen game.
Atlanta has not announced a starter or opener as of Sunday morning, but the likely option is Drew Smyly, Jesse Chavez or Tucker Davidson.
Brian Snitker got his initial pitching decision wrong in Game 4, as Dylan Lee lasted four batters before Kyle Wright took over. Wright got out of the first-inning jam and then threw 4.2 solid innings to bridge the gap to Atlanta's high-leverage relivers.
Atlanta's top relievers have gone through high-stress innings in each of the past two games, and they might be a bit tired heading into Game 5.
For Houston, the pitching strategy is simple: Valdez needs to produce a strong start similar to his second appearance in the ALCS. If that happens, the Astros have to hope their bats come alive to produce more than a one- or two-run lead before their top relievers take over.
Pitching Preview
For the second straight game, Houston holds an advantage of knowing exactly what its pitching strategy will be. On Saturday, the Astros got four solid innings out of Zack Greinke before he turned over the ball to the bullpen.
Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton and Ryan Pressly produced solid outings during the run of relievers, but Brooks Raley and Cristian Javier were tagged for the three Atlanta runs. Javier, who has been one of Houston's best relievers this postseason, conceded back-to-back home runs to Dansby Swanson and Jorge Soler in the seventh inning.
Houston can cut its bullpen output to three or four innings if Valdez bounces back in a similar fashion to the ALCS. He hurled eight magnificent innings at Fenway Park in ALCS Game 5 to complete the momentum shift in the series. His victory allowed Houston to come back home needing one win to clinch a World Series berth.
Valdez lasted two innings in Game 1, as he conceded five earned runs on eight hits. He allowed three runs on six hits in ALCS Game 1. Even if Valdez throws five solid innings, Dusty Baker should be in good shape to manage his bullpen in the closing stages of Game 5.
Pressly was the only Houston reliever who threw more than 20 pitches in Game 4. He might be unavailable for Sunday's game because he threw 33 pitches in 1.2 innings of work. Kendall Graveman and Yimi Garcia will be fresh, and so will Jake Odorizzi in case the Astros need to go to the bullpen early.
As for Atlanta, it has to navigate another tricky bullpen game with more maxed-out pitchers in Game 5. Snitker's call to open Game 4 with Lee backfired, but he rectified that poor decision by putting Wright in as the first reliever. Wright produced a 4.2-inning gem before Chris Martin, Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson and Will Smith took over.
Matzek, Jackson and Smith have been used in almost every postseason game. Expect them to take over once the game reaches the seventh inning. Before then, Houston has a chance to pick off runs against some of Atlanta's long relievers, including Chavez and Smyly.
Snitker probably will not go back to a younger pitcher to open after Saturday's nightmare start, so that likely rules Davidson out of the opener position. He could throw an inning at some point.
Chavez was used as Atlanta's opener for NLCS Game 4. He threw a scoreless inning to lead off that game, but he has not pitched since World Series Game 2.
Smyly followed Chavez with 3.1 innings of work in NLCS Game 4. He conceded two earned runs on two hits in that outing. He also gave up an earned run in his inning of work in World Series Game 2.
Since Chavez and Smyly are fresh, Atlanta should go to them as the first two pitchers for Game 5. Atlanta is in this predicament because Game 1 starter Charlie Morton broke his leg in the first game of the Fall Classic.
If Atlanta gets four or five innings of Chavez and Smyly, it can go to A.J. Minter for multiple innings, like it did in Game 1, or it can stack Minter, Martin and Davidson in some combination to get to the seventh.
Prediction
Houston 4, Atlanta 2
Houston's best opportunity of the series to grab an early lead comes in Game 5.
Chavez and Smyly have not been perfect, but Atlanta has to throw in the duo in some capacity because they are the two freshest long relievers on the roster.
Houston got to Lee early in Game 4, but it was unable to produce more than one run once Wright toed the rubber.
Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley are responsible for 10 of the team's 27 World Series hits. If they reach base early, they can set up Alex Bregman or Yordan Alvarez for a potential slump-busting run-scoring play.
Bregman is 1-for-14 in the series, and Alvarez is 1-for-11. Houston needs a big hit out of one of those batters to grab the advantage early on.
If not, the pressure will be on Carlos Correa or Kyle Tucker to deliver a big hit. Tucker is 5-for-15, but he does not have a RBI in the World Series.
Baker could consider moving Tucker up in the order to stack his hot hitters together, but that seems unlikely based off his postseason lineups.
If Bregman, Alvarez or Correa come up with a big hit to then set up Tucker with multiple runners on base, the Astros have a chance to give Valdez a comfortable lead to work with.
If Valdez rebounds like he did in the ALCS, Houston should have the lead through the first five innings, and it could ride its postseason ace into a scenario in which it needs three innings out of its best relievers to send the series back to Houston.
