B/R College Football 2021 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 9
Somehow, it's already Week 9.
Before we dive headfirst into our latest CFB picks against the spread, I must first remind you that each week of the college football season is sacred. We must celebrate every single one as much as we can, because the season is progressing far too rapidly.
The good news is that we have some time. The even better news is that Week 9 is full of fascinating matchups, rivalries and playoff intrigue.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Last week, the picks got back on track (at least somewhat). I'm still tilting about UNLV's inability to cover against San Jose State, although it's imperative to move forward.
Before we do, here's what went right and wrong. (Well, other than UNLV collapsing at like 2 a.m. ET, which kept me up for a good part of the night.)
The Good: Miami (+3) vs. North Carolina State: It wasn't always easy on the eyes, and maybe that's an understatement. Miami, however, covered the three-point spread and won outright against NC State. Loved the win, but goodness was it stressful.
The Bad: Louisiana Tech (+6.5) vs. UTSA: "Bad" doesn't quite cut it. This was something else. I thought Louisiana Tech would be competitive, and the Bulldogs proceeded to lose by roughly 1,100 points. The Roadrunners are legit.
Here are the Week 9 picks.
North Carolina State (-7) vs. Louisville
I bet against NC State last week, and that decision worked out. Despite Miami's valiant attempt to blow that game, the Hurricanes hung on.
Louisville took care of business against Boston College, which sets up a fascinating ACC matchup accompanied by a fascinating point spread. Although many will be inclined to back the Cardinals given recent results, I'm headed the other direction.
Despite the loss, I'm a fan of NC State. The Wolfpack are also 3-1 against the spread at home this season, and they will be playing in front of a home crowd for the first time in nearly a month.
Offensively, I love what I've seen from sophomore quarterback Devin Leary. He hasn't thrown an interception since September 11, and the production seems to be ramping up as the season progresses.
This will be a bounce back. North Carolina State by double digits.
Utah (-6.5) vs. UCLA
I can't imagine that this week has been pleasant for Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who was hit plenty in UCLA's loss to Oregon last week. Robinson's status for this week appears in flux as he deals with lingering issues from the prior week.
Whether he plays or not, however, really doesn't impact what side I'm taking.
Playing at Utah following a game of that nature is less than ideal, even with the Utes having lost at Oregon State on Saturday. Playing at home should provide a much different boost, something we saw against Arizona State back in mid-October. Utah won that game comfortably by two touchdowns.
As for UCLA, it just feels like a very strong start to the season is coming undone.
While the Bruins did some good things against Oregon early before coughing up the lead—and they have played well on the road this year—the impact of last weekend's loss is likely to linger.
Mississippi State (+1) vs. Kentucky
If you are a contrarian bettor, which I most certainly am, you have to be intrigued by this point spread. The nation's No. 12-ranked team, Kentucky, is a small favorite over a three-loss team.
Granted, Mississippi State doesn't feel like a typical three-loss team. The October 2 win over Texas A&M has aged incredibly well. And a two-touchdown win over NC State from early in the year isn't a bad resume boost, either.
The Bulldogs will be taking on a team with only one loss to date. Also, Kentucky has covered the spread in the last four. (Yes, I am aware Kentucky barely covered the spread against Georgia a few weeks back. But the Wildcats still did; Mark Stoops made sure of it.)
This will be only Kentucky's third true road game of the season, which is pretty wild considering where we are on the calendar. The first game, an ugly 16-10 victory over South Carolina, might be more in line with what we get here.
There will be more points, although Mississippi State finds a way. Mike Leach pulls a mild upset over one of the darlings of the 2021 season.
Wisconsin (-3) vs. Iowa
As someone who has spent plenty of time in Kinnick Stadium, the addition of this pick is a bit painful. But as I have stated throughout the existence of this piece, picking winners isn't personal. It's just business.
Iowa's business this season has been largely good. Although the last time we saw the Hawkeyes, business was very, very bad.
The 24-7 loss to Purdue highlighted some of the issues Kirk Ferentz's team has played through. The offensive struggles—namely at quarterback and the offensive line—finally became too much to overcome. And the injuries to the secondary, which has been superb for much of the year, came at the worst possible time.
Wisconsin, which we largely wrote off after three losses in the first four games, has rallied of late. And although the passing offense is still limited, the defense and running game have found new life.
The total is only 36.5 points, and there's a real possibility it stays under that. It also feels like Iowa's issues, even off a bye, will likely be present once again in a difficult environment.
Michigan (-4) at Michigan State
I just think Michigan is a better football team. Honestly, it's that simple.
Stylistic, the two are actually quite similar. Both teams like to do their damage on the ground, and both have quality running backs to test just about any defense.
Michigan State's Kenneth Walker III (997 rushing yards) and Michigan's Blake Corum (729 rushing yards) are No. 1 and No. 2 in rushing in the Big Ten.
If you've watched these two teams play, this should come as no surprise.
Michigan has the nation's No. 2 scoring defense; Michigan State owns the nation's No. 19 scoring defense. Michigan has the nation's No. 15-ranked scoring offense; Michigan State checks in at No. 29.
The difference, however, is that the Wolverines have done this against better competition. While that is not always a favorable barometer in deciding games—especially rivalry games—it does feel significant given what we've seen.
Playing at home should help Sparty. I just don't believe it'll help enough.
Michigan 27, Michigan State 17.
Other Games on the Card
Pittsburgh (-9) vs. Miami: I really like the way Pittsburgh is playing, and I could see the win over Clemson propelling this team forward. The Hurricanes simply make too many mistakes to compete here.
Nebraska (-7.5) vs. Purdue: Weird spread. And I love those. A week after clobbering Iowa, Purdue was clobbered by Wisconsin. While Nebraska needs to figure out how to win games, there is plenty of talent. Big win for the Cornhuskers.
Auburn (-2.5) vs. Ole Miss: Bo Nix is developing into a pretty good quarterback, as long as he limits the mistakes. I really like this spot for Auburn, and playing at home is huge.
Cal (+1.5) vs. Oregon State: Oh, this line is lovely. Although if you look a little deeper, and I believe you'll find that Cal has somewhat quietly improved since the start of the season.
Boston College at Syracuse (Over 50.5): It's my only total on the card this week, although I like it quite a bit. Both of these offenses have a chance to do some damage in this one.
Odds via DraftKings and accurate as of Wednesday.
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