UFC Fight Night 195: Ladd vs. Dumont Odds, Schedule, Predictions

Alex Ballentine@Ballentine_AlexFeatured ColumnistOctober 16, 2021

UFC Fight Night 195: Ladd vs. Dumont Odds, Schedule, Predictions

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    Aspen Ladd is back after nearly two years away from the Octagon, and Norma Dumont will be the one to welcome her in the main event of UFC Fight Night 195 from Las Vegas. 

    The main event came to be through a series of unfortunate events. Dumont was originally scheduled to fight Holly Holm, but the former champion was forced to withdraw from the fight because of injury. Ladd was supposed to make her return against Macy Chiasson at Fight Night 194, but she was forced to withdraw because of weight-cut difficulties. 

    As a result, Ladd will now fight Dumont at featherweight in a matchup that could go a long way toward creating a contender for Amanda Nunes' heavier division. 

    The heavyweight division will be in the spotlight in the co-main event with Andrei Arlovski fighting rising Brazilian heavyweight Carlos Felipe. 

    Here's a look at the whole card with odds and a closer look at the biggest fights of the evening. 

Fight Card, Schedule and Odds

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    Main card (ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET)

    • Aspen Ladd (-130; bet $130 to win $100) vs. Norma Dumont (+110; $100 bet wins $110)
    • Andrei Arlovski (-115) vs. Carlos Felipe (-105)
    • Jim Miller (-265) vs. Erick Gonzalez (+215)
    • Manon Fiorot (-265) vs. Mayra Bueno Silva (+215)
    • Nate Landwehr (+300) vs. Ludovit Klein (-400)

    Prelims (ESPN+ at 4:00 p.m. ET)

    • Andrew Sanchez (+130) vs. Bruno Silva (-150)
    • Danny Roberts (+250) vs. Ramazan Emeev (-320)
    • Loopy Godinez (-235) vs. Luana Carolina (+190)
    • Danaa Batgerel (-160) vs. Brandon Davis (+140)
    • Istela Nunes (+120) vs. Ariane Carnelossi (-140)

    Odds via DraftKings Sportbook

Ladd vs. Dumont

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    Looking at this main event, it's perplexing that Ladd hasn't made the move to featherweight sooner. Her weight cuts have been difficult before, and she even lost her bantamweight license after her fight with Germaine de Randamie in which she gained 18 pounds after the weigh-in. 

    But moving up in weight isn't just safer for Ladd, it's a strong move competitively. The featherweight division may be on life support, but it does provide a much easier path to the title. There are no rankings for the division, but GDR and Holm are two of the top names to have competed at the weight and both are in their late 30s. 

    Despite both fighters having just one loss and a combined record of 15-2, there are still a lot of unanswered questions.

    Dumont has not shown much finishing instinct. She has just two submission wins, and the rest have gone to decision. Ladd is coming off an ACL and MCL tear and struggled to cut weight, so it's hard to tell where her conditioning is. 

    Ladd is definitely the more dangerous of the two. Her wrestling and power have led her to six knockouts and one submission in her nine career victories. 

    The key factor could be Dumont's wrestling defense, though. She has yet to be taken down in the UFC and is good enough at keeping things standing when she wants to put Ladd at the end of her jab and score a decision victory. 

    Prediction: Dumont via decision

Arlovski vs. Felipe

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    Saturday night's tussle will be the 36th time that Arlovski has strapped on the gloves under the UFC banner. That means that Arlovski has 10 more UFC fights than Carlos Felipe has years on this earth. 

    Arlovski has taken a ton of damage over the course of his lengthy MMA career, but he's been surprisingly durable in recent years. He's only suffered one knockout loss in his last 13 fights and has won three of his last four. 

    Felipe, on the other hand, is still showing what he can do. He doesn't bring any outstanding traits to the table physically, especially for a heavyweight. He pushes a good pace for the division but has been utterly hittable, absorbing more strikes per minute than he dishes out, per UFC Stats

    In four UFC fights, he has yet to see one that hasn't gone the distance, and he's won a split decision in each of his two most recent fights. 

    Arlovski is old, but at this point, he continues to show he can kickbox with those who aren't at a complete physical advantage. Felipe does not seem to fit that category. 

    Prediction: Arlovski via decision

Miller vs. Gonzalez

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    Not to be outdone by the everlasting presence of Arlovski, Jim Miller will make his 38th walk to the UFC Octagon on the main card. He'll welcome Erick Gonzalez to the promotion in the lead-in to the co-main event. 

    For Miller, it's been submission or bust as he reaches the twilight of his career. He hasn't had a non-submission victory since a decision-win over Thiago Alves in 2016. 

    Miller is obviously at a huge experience advantage. He's been in the cage with some legendary lightweights and fought solid competition for years. Conversely, Gonzalez hasn't seen UFC-caliber competition, let alone a wily veteran like Miller. 

    That explains the lopsided odds in the veteran's favor. 

    But sound the upset alarms here. Miller is 1-3 in his last four fights and needs to find a way to submit his opponent to win. Gonzalez has enough pop in his hands to make things interesting. 

    Prediction: Gonzalez via third-round TKO


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