Manny Pacquiao vs. Yordenis Ugas Scorecard Predictions, Odds and Prop Bets

Manny Pacquiao is set to step into the ring for the first time in more than two years against a sizeable underdog in Yordenis Ugas on Saturday, August 21 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. 

The welterweight clash isn't quite the originally scheduled bout between the future Hall of Famer and Errol Spence Jr., but this still brings some intrigue. Spence was forced to withdraw from the fight just under two weeks from fight night with a torn retina. 

Ugas can't be completely discounted. He isn't Spence, but he does hold the WBA welterweight title, which will be on the line against Pacquiao. 

Pacquiao isn't the ferocious fighter he once was, but he'll be the betting favorite. The last time we saw him in the ring, he was fighting Keith Thurman to a split-decision win at 40 years old. 

Now at 42, he'll look to prove he still has enough to beat someone of Ugas' caliber and potentially set up another matchup with Spence down the line. Here's a look at the current odds and some of the prop bets before making some predictions as to how the fight will shake out. 

Fight Odds

Favorite: Manny Pacquiao -430 (Bet $430 to win $100)

Underdog: Yordenis Ugas +300 (Bet $100 to win $300)

Prop Bets

Method of Victory

Pacquiao by points/decision +120

Pacquiao by TKO/KO +165

Draw +2000

Ugas by points/decision +420

Ugas by TKO/KO +1200

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

Yes: -156

No: +112

Odds via FanDuel Sporetsbook

Preview and Prediction

When Pacquiao shifted opponents from Spence to Ugas, he also made the transition from underdog to favorite. Even at 42 years old Pac-Man's experience, footwork and loyal betting public figure to make him a popular pick. 

Ugas will share a few of the advantages Spence would have had. Namely, his height and reach help him have a puncher's chance. The former Olympian is 5'9" with a 69" reach, giving him a four-inch height and two-inch reach advantage over his opponent. 

That suits Ugas as he tends to work to establish the jab and build his combinations off of it. 

Those combinations don't typically come with a lot of power. Only 12 of his 26 wins have come by TKO or knockout. 

The lack of power and movement are the biggest step down from Spence. Ugas will be the bigger opponent, but he isn't the type to leverage that into a power advantage. Instead, he will likely try to out-point Pacquiao, but he doesn't have the sophisticated footwork that Pacquiao would have seen in Spence. 

Ugas is skilled enough to have won the WBA championship that was once held by his opponent. That's something that motivates the former eight-division champion.

"My title was given to Ugas," Pacquiao said, per Kevin Iole of Yahoo Sports. "That is not how you become a champion. You earn it by winning it inside the ring. We will fight for the title. That is the proper way a champion is crowned."

Pacquiao has plenty of motivation to do well in this fight. At this point in his, career every time out could be his last, and it gives him a chance to add another title to his resume. 

He will be giving up size and reach, but his power and speed are on another level compared to the Cuban's. 

Still, bettors looking for value should be looking at the prop bets surrounding method of victory and whether the fight will go the distance. 

Pacquiao was tested by Thurman the last time we saw him in the ring, but this is a step down in competition from a fighter who was previously unbeaten. However, Pac-Man hasn't scored a stoppage win since Lucas Matthysse in 2018. 

Ugas is a durable fighter who has never experienced a TKO or knockout. Yet, his skills aren't likely to test the legendary boxer in what could be his last bout. 

Prediction: Pacquiao via unanimous decision (118-110)

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