Boxing:Kelly Pavlik Vs. Joe Calzaghe; Part 2 In A Five Part Series

In part one of my series, I examined a potential fight between Miguel Cotto and Floyd Mayweather Jr. That fight was to determine the top dog at welterweight and was between undefeated fighters.

In this edition, I will examine another matchup between undefeated fighters that would clear up the picture for the middleweight/super middleweight ranks.

Kelly Pavlik(34-0) vs. Joe Calzaghe(45-0)

As of this writing, neither guy has a scheduled fight. Pavlik is coming off a beatdown of Gary Lockett in his last fight and Calzaghe is coming off of a decision win over Bernard Hopkins.

Kelly Pavlik is the current Ring Magazine champ at 160, while Calzaghe is the Ring Magazine's champ at both 168 and 175.

The Story-

As with Cotto/Mayweather, this story has a lot of potential backdrops. Kelly Pavlik is from the Youngstown, Ohio, a city hit hard by the closing of steel mills in the 70's. Calzaghe is from Wales, and is extremely popular with British boxing fans.

Calzaghe is ten years older than Pavlik, and has fought the majority of his career at 168 until moving up to fight Bernard Hopkins at 175. Pavlik is the current champ at 160 but will likely be moving up in weight soon, either to fight Calzaghe or to campaign at 168 after his retirement.

The Styles-

Stylistically speaking, these two couldn't be more different if they were from different planets rather than different countries.

Pavlik is a hard worker in the ring, almost as if he packs a lunch and brings a hard hat. He doesn't possess a lot of handspeed, but he makes up for it with determination, punch placement, combination punching, and power. Pavlik is one of the hardest hitters at any weight class, and has 30 wins by knockout.

Calzaghe is a fighter that has superb handspeed, and good reflexes. He takes criticism for his amateurish style, as he often doesn't sit down on his punches. He gets in, gets out, and frustrates his opponents and adjusts to what he sees in the ring over the course of the fight.

the fight-

In this fight, look for Pavlik to want to walk Calzaghe down, and start timing his punches to land his own. He will want to work the body, and slow Calzaghe down, so he can put some heavy leather on him later in the fight.

Calzaghe will want to avoid exchanging with Pavlik, and look to use his incredible footwork and angles to get his punches off without being in place for return shots. He will want to frustrate Pavlik, and get him to start winging shots and follow him around the ring.

My prediction-

My prediction for this fight is dependent on one thing: the timing of this fight. If this fight were to take place before the end of this year, I could see Calzaghe winning a decision by a few points.

I believe his speed and experience will be too much for Pavlik, and if this fight took place in England, the crowd would factor in as well. Jermain Taylor had Pavlik down in their fight and his handspeed was a major factor in that, and I believe Calzaghe is faster than Taylor.

However, the longer this fight takes to happen, the better for Pavlik. If the two were to meet next year, late spring or summertime, I would lean slightly towards Pavlik. Calzaghe is no spring chicken at 36, and would be 37 by then.

 Age slows speed and reflexes, and I think Calzaghe's habit of keeping his hands low and moving out of the way of punches would cost him as his reflexes go. I would pick Pavlik by decision if the fight happens next year.

Look for my next fight in the series, Chad Dawson vs. Antonio Tarver.