NBA Finals 2021: Bucks vs. Suns Game 5 Vegas Odds, Prop Bets and Predictions

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistJuly 15, 2021

Phoenix Suns guard Chris Paul, right, is defended by Milwaukee Bucks guard Jrue Holiday during the second half of Game 2 of basketball's NBA Finals, Thursday, July 8, 2021, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Matt York)
Matt York/Associated Press

The Phoenix Suns are tasked with holding serve in Saturday's Game 5 of the NBA Finals.

The Milwaukee Bucks picked up two wins on their hardwood to level the series and make it a best-of-three for the Larry O'Brien Trophy.

By now, the trends of the series have been defined, with only a few players taking on consistent starring roles with high numbers in the points column.

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton carried the Bucks in Games 3 and 4, while Devin Booker featured in a standout role in Game 4 with a 42-point output.

Phoenix needs a bit more out of Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton to bounce back from the two road defeats. That will require some adjustments from Monty Williams and his coaching staff, but they have two off days to implement those.


NBA Finals Game 5 Odds

Spread: Phoenix -4.5

Over/Under: 218.5

Money Line: Phoenix -184 (bet $184 to win $100); Milwaukee +154 (bet $100 to win $154)

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.


Prop Bet Predictions

Chris Paul Over 21.5 Points

Paul was a lethal scorer at the back end of Phoenix's previous two playoff series.

In Games 3 and 4 versus the Denver Nuggets, Paul totaled 64 points and he shot 73.7 percent from the field in the series finale. He also produced 41 points in the series-clinching Game 6 win over the Los Angeles Clippers and had 22 points and eight assists in Game 5.

The point guard started out the NBA Finals on a high note with 55 points in his home arena. The Suns need another 20-point performance out of Paul to match the production of Milwaukee's top players.

Even though he failed to reach the 20-point threshold in Games 3 and 4, Paul was still shooting at a high volume. Paul attempted 27 field goals in Milwaukee. He attempted even more shots in Games 1 and 2 by going 22-of-39.

If Paul is able to cut through the Milwaukee defense and attempt a handful of mid-range jumpers or floaters, he should provide the necessary support to Booker to get past Milwaukee.

You should also keep an eye on Paul's assist prop, which sits at 8.5 as of 10 a.m. ET on Thursday. Paul has at least seven assists in each NBA Finals game, and his passing ability may be utilized to break the deadlock the Milwaukee defense has on Ayton around the rim.


Khris Middleton Over 2.5 Threes

Middleton's point total has fluctuated throughout the series, but the one mainstay on his stat line has been his three-point production.

The small forward hit five three-pointers in Game 1 and then he made three each in Games 3 and 4.

Middleton has shot at a high volume throughout the postseason, but his point totals have not always matched that output. In the past two series, the 29-year-old has had under 25 points in half of the 10 games, so betting the over on his points prop at 25.5 might be deemed as too risky.

In that same span, Middleton knocked down multiple three-point shots in seven games, which suggests you will come closer to him hitting his over on makes from downtown.

Since Jrue Holiday is 6-of-22 from three-point range in the series, look for Middleton to add more production from downtown to compensate for that bad form and to keep the Bucks in Game 5.


Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.

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