MLB Draft 2021: Buying or Selling Every Top-10 Pick Becoming an All-Star

The 2021 Major League Baseball draft concluded with its third day on Tuesday, yet there's still a good deal of focus on the cream-of-the-crop talents who went in the top 10 picks on Sunday.

If this focus can be distilled down to one simple question, it's probably something like, "So, are these guys gonna be All-Stars or what?"

Though the answer to that question will take years to become clear, for now we thought we'd venture a buy/sell guess for each of the players who went in the top 10 in this year's draft. This involved weighing not only their current talent and future projection, but also any relevant precedents.

We'll proceed in reverse order, starting at No. 10 and ending at No. 1.

No. 10: RHP Kumar Rocker, New York Mets

Rebecca S. Gratz/Associated Press

Ranked as highly as the draft's No. 5 prospect for The Athletic and Baseball America, the New York Mets got a steal when Kumar Rocker slipped to them at No. 10.

During Rocker's three seasons with the Vanderbilt Commodores, there were times when he looked too good to merely be pitching in the college ranks. Never more so, of course, than when he whiffed 19 batters in a no-hitter against Duke in the NCAA Super Regionals in June 2019.

And yet the 21-year-old was also oddly human at times, including this past season; his velocity was up and down en route to a good-not-great 2.73 ERA in 20 starts. That alone suggests there's also a low floor underneath his high ceiling.

That ceiling, though, is indeed sky-high on account of a mid-to-high 90s fastball and devastating slider that Jim Callis of MLB.com ranked among the draft's top tools. Rocker also has an ideal starting pitcher's body at 6'5", 245 pounds, so his velocity issues clearly aren't a question of strength.

Factoring in that Rocker is coming from an institution that's produced major league aces like David Price, Sonny Gray and Walker Buehler, his upside is ultimately more believable than his downside.

Verdict: Buy

No. 9: RHP Sam Bachman, Los Angeles Angels

Doug Murray/Associated Press

If there's one thing to know about the Los Angeles Angels' highest draft pick since 1997, it's that Sam Bachman can light up the radar gun.

The 6'1", 235-pounder could already work in the low-to-mid 90s with his fastball in his first two seasons with Miami (Ohio) in 2019 and 2020, but in 2021, he was sitting in the mid-to-high 90s and regularly touching triple digits. For anyone who needs proof, here's him throwing 101 mph in March.

In addition to his blistering fastball, Bachman also offers a plus slider that's at least in the discussion for the best among this year's draft prospects. So, what's not to like?

Well, his injury history, for one. The 21-year-old missed a couple of early-season starts with a tired arm and also had some shoulder soreness from time to time. And while his build is sturdy, there's some effort and moving parts in his delivery that could lead to lasting control issues.

This is to say there's room for doubt concerning Bachman's long-term potential as a starter. But even if it's kind of a copout to say as much, we'll do it anyway: With his stuff and mechanics, he could easily turn into an All-Star-caliber relief ace if starting doesn't work out.

Verdict: Buy

No. 8: OF Benny Montgomery, Colorado Rockies

Because the Colorado Rockies are operating with something of a skeleton crew in their front office after so many departures, any decision they make should be met with a degree of skepticism.

This includes the club's choice to draft prep outfielder Benny Montgomery at No. 8 overall on Sunday.

It's not that the 18-year-old out of Red Land High School in Lewisberry, Pennsylvania, is lacking in physicality or tools. He's already 6'4", 200 pounds, so nobody should be surprised to hear that he's seen as having good power potential. He also already has a plus arm and, according to Baseball America, 80-grade speed.

However, questions about Montgomery's hit tool are pretty much universal. That 6'4" frame is going to give him a bigger strike zone than most players, and there's a hitch in his current swing that points to a high likelihood of having a swing-and-miss issue in the professional ranks.

Granted, problematic swings can be fixed. But unlike, say, the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Rockies don't exactly have a track record of matching talented hitters with their ideal swings. And given the current state of their front office, there's no reason to think that will change any time soon.

Verdict: Sell

No. 7: LHP Frank Mozzicato, Kansas City Royals

When the Kansas City Royals drafted Frank Mozzicato with the No. 7 pick, there was an immediate question as to whether they had reached for a prospect who didn't even crack The Athletic's top 50.

What arguably justifies that call, though, is that Mozzicato had a lot of helium this spring.

To wit, the 18-year-old southpaw out of Manchester, Connecticut, threw four straight no-hitters for East Catholic High School in May. Scouts started flocking to watch him pitch, as did San Diego Padres general manager A.J. Preller at one point.

Though he only has 175 pounds on his 6'3" frame, Mozzicato should add more strength as he matures. That bodes well for a fastball that already cracks 90 mph, and he already has a plus curveball in his arsenal. So if he can so much as develop a workable changeup, he could vaguely resemble Atlanta ace Max Fried.

Still, the fact that Mozzicato doesn't already have a plus fastball or a go-to third pitch means he's about as risky as any other high school pitcher. There's also no escaping the sense that the Royals reached for him to avoid blowing their bonus pool all on one guy, so it's fair to have doubts about his All-Star potential.

Verdict: Sell

No. 6: SS Jordan Lawlar, Arizona Diamondbacks

Michael Ainsworth/Associated Press

Amid an otherwise brutal 2021 season, the Arizona Diamondbacks had something go right when Jordan Lawlar was still on the board when they made the No. 6 pick.

The 18-year-old product of Dallas Jesuit College Prep High School was widely seen as one of the draft's five best talents. He even checked in at No. 1 overall for Baseball America, which rated each of his five tools as above average or better.

If nothing else, Lawlar should stick at shortstop even as he further fills out his 6'2", 190-pound frame. That process should also equip him with more power at the plate, where he already boasts electric bat speed.

If there's a tool of Lawlar's that's more of a question mark, it's his hit tool. Even Baseball America remarked on it, noting that he struck out 20 percent of the time through the first 21 games of his season. For a high schooler, that's...not great.

But since Lawlar eventually corrected that problem, he arguably entered the draft with no actual red flags. And while the history of highly drafted prep shortstops is mixed, Manny Machado, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor and Javier Baez are living proof that Lawlar can find the right path.

Verdict: Buy

No. 5: OF Colton Cowser, Baltimore Orioles

Aaron M. Sprecher/Associated Press

The Baltimore Orioles used top-five picks on college standouts in both 2019 and 2020, going for catcher Adley Rutschman at No. 1 in the former and outfielder Heston Kjerstad at No. 2 in the latter.

On Sunday, the O's went back to the college outfielder well when they plucked Colton Cowser out of Sam Houston State with the No. 5 pick.

Since Ryan Tepera is probably the best player to come out of the school in recent years, it's fair to say that Sam Houston isn't a breeding ground for major league stars. But after hitting .361 as a freshman in 2019 and .374 as a junior this season, Cowser sure seems like he could break the mold.

Those batting averages underscore a hit tool that's perhaps the best of any of this draft's college hitters. Because he's also a plus runner, the Orioles have at least two reasons to dream on the 21-year-old as their future leadoff hitter.

Yet there are also questions about Cowser's ability to stay in center field and, because of a swing that isn't geared for launch angle, about his long-term power outlook. Since he's already been through the college ranks, there's less room for belief that he'll answer those questions and become a truly well-rounded star.

Verdict: Sell

No. 4: SS Marcelo Mayer, Boston Red Sox

Based on his predraft rankings at MLB.com, FanGraphs, The Athletic and wherever else, Marcelo Mayer was the de facto favorite to go No. 1 overall to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Yet he somehow fell to the Boston Red Sox at No. 4, effectively forcing him to renounce his New York Yankees fandom on the spot.

Perhaps nobody is higher on Mayer than Callis, who rated him as both the best hitter and the best defender in this year's draft class. As comps go, he has the potential to be Corey Seager on offense and Brandon Crawford on defense. A super-shortstop, in other words.

If there's literally any "yeah, but..." here, it's that the 18-year-old out of Chula Vista, California, could outgrow shortstop as he packs bulk onto his 6'3", 188-pound frame. As it is, he's already a merely average runner.

But even if Mayer does have to move to third base or second base, his bat alone could be his ticket to All-Star honors. He also wouldn't be the first player from Eastlake High School to achieve stardom in the majors, as Adrian Gonzalez did so after leaving the school as the Florida Marlins' No. 1 pick in 2000.

Verdict: Buy

No. 3: RHP Jackson Jobe, Detroit Tigers

Contrary to Mayer's alma mater, Jackson Jobe is the first player to ever be drafted directly out of Heritage Hall High School in Oklahoma City.

If it's a question of what drew the Detroit Tigers to him with the No. 3 pick, well, have you seen his slider?

In addition to looking great to the naked eye, the folks at PitchingWRX have tracked the spin rate on Jobe's slider at more than 3,200 revolutions per minute. Among current-day major leaguers, only Pirates right-hander Kyle Crick has hit that mark consistently with his slider in 2021.

Lest anyone think that the slider is all 18-year-old Jobe has going for him, he can already get his fastball into the mid-90s, and his changeup's grades range from average to plus. Per MLB.com, some evaluators even think the latter is just as good as his slider.

As prep arms go, all of this makes Jobe less of a long shot than Mozzicato. He also has a solid pitcher's build at 6'2", 190 pounds, and his delivery wouldn't seem to have any obvious mechanical red flags. So even if he is an anomaly for Heritage Hall, all signs point to him doing the school proud.

Verdict: Buy

No. 2: RHP Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers

Rebecca S. Gratz/Associated Press

In the days leading up to the draft, there was some intrigue as to whether Jack Leiter and the Red Sox would be able to make good on their mutual interest via the No. 4 pick.

The Texas Rangers nixed that idea when they drafted Leiter at No. 2, and bully for them given that it meant landing the best pitching prospect in this year's draft.

Though Leiter—whose father, Al, had a fruitful major league career in his own right—only occasionally reaches the upper 90s with his fastball, it nonetheless draws plus-plus grades. As Justin Choi of FanGraphs showed, Leiter's heater plays above its velocity because of its high spin and his location efficiency.

The 21-year-old also has an excellent curveball, plus a slider and changeup that have above-average potential. And while he's perhaps slightly undersized at 6'1", 205 pounds, he has an effective drop-and-drive delivery that calls to mind a young Roy Oswalt.

In all, there are good reasons why Leiter put up a 2.08 ERA over 125.2 innings with Vanderbilt. Like Rocker, he now stands to become the next great MLB success story to come out of that university.

Verdict: Buy

No. 1: C Henry Davis, Pittsburgh Pirates

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

Though they were widely expected to go for Mayer with the No. 1 pick in the draft, the Pirates went against those winds to draft Henry Davis out of Louisville.

He's the sixth catcher to ever be drafted first overall, and the history there isn't encouraging. Joe Mauer certainly made it, but after him, the most successful No. 1 catcher is Mike Ivie, whose 11 seasons yielded all of 7.3 WAR and no All-Star selections.

For his part, whether the 21-year-old Davis will even stick behind the plate is somewhat up in the air. His throwing arm is more than good enough for catching duty. His receiving, however, has generally left evaluators wanting more.

Yet that could be a moot point if MLB eventually implements an automated strike zone. And if Davis does have to move to another position, his bat could make him a star anyway. He just hit .370 with 15 home runs as a junior, numbers which point to a plus hit tool and above-average power.

So even though some concern is warranted here, the Pirates ultimately didn't pick Davis just to troll everyone. He's legitimately talented, and thus a legitimate All-Star candidate in the long run.

Verdict: Buy

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant.