Capital One's The Match: Odds, Tips and Predictions for Charity Golf Event

Jake RillFeatured Columnist IJuly 6, 2021

Aaron Rodgers hits a tee shot on the third hole of the Spyglass Hill Golf Course during the first round of the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am golf tournament Thursday, Feb. 6, 2020, in Pebble Beach, Calif. (AP Photo/Tony Avelar)
Tony Avelar/Associated Press

Tom Brady is rarely an underdog on the football field. He's a three-time NFL MVP, a seven-time Super Bowl champion and a future Pro Football Hall of Famer, so it's never a surprise when he guides his team to victory.

However, things aren't quite the same when Brady is on a golf course. He may be a decent golfer, but he'll also get a taste of being an underdog when he's on the greens this week.

Brady is again teaming up with Phil Mickelson for Capital One's The Match. This time, they'll be facing another quarterback/golfer duo, as they'll be playing against Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers and Bryson DeChambeau on Tuesday at Moonlight Basin in Big Sky, Mont.

The last time Brady and Mickelson were golf partners, they lost to Peyton Manning and Tiger Woods in Capital One's The Match: Champions for Charity in May 2020.

Here's a look at the odds for this highly anticipated charity golf match, along with a prediction for who will come out on top.



DeChambeau/Rodgers: -177 (bet $177 to win $100)

Mickelson/Brady: +130 (bet $100 to win $130)

Via DraftKings Sportsbook


Preview, Prediction

The format for Capital One's The Match is modified alternate shot match play. That means both players in a duo will tee off, then they'll choose which ball to use from there. At that point, they'll alternate shots the rest of the way to the hole.

So it'll be important for at least one member of the pair to hit a long drive. And that won't be an issue for DeChambeau and Rodgers.

DeChambeau's game has greatly improved over the past few years, and a big reason for that has been his driving ability. It helped him win his first major title at the 2020 U.S. Open. He's struggled a bit of late, though, finishing 18th or worse at his past six PGA Tour events and missing the cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic this past weekend.

Still, DeChambeau should be loose and having fun playing alongside Rodgers, who isn't a bad golfer himself. The Packers quarterback has been a frequent participant in the American Century Championship, an annual celebrity golf tournament held at Lake Tahoe.

Rodgers finished 16th at that event last year, and his best performance was an eighth-place showing in 2017. So while DeChambeau will likely carry their team, Rodgers is capable of hitting some nice shots.

When Brady last played in Capital One's The Match in 2018, he got off to a slow start. How bad was it? Well, he lost a $50,000 side bet to Basketball Hall of Famer (and notoriously bad golfer) Charles Barkley, who challenged Brady to hit the green on a par three.

But Brady fared better late in that matchup with Manning and Woods, and it's possible he's even improved his golf game since then. Plus, he'll be playing with Mickelson, who won the PGA Championship in May and is always capable of a strong showing on a given day.

However, the smart bet to make is on the favorites, as DeChambeau and Rodgers is a pairing that should have plenty of success and put together a strong round.

It's not going to be completely one-sided. Mickelson and Brady will hit their share of impressive shots. And of course, it's mostly about the fun and friendly trash talk that will be taking place, so while each pair will want to win, it's not just about that at this event.

DeChambeau and Rodgers, though, will end up pulling out the victory, as DeChambeau's long drives and Rodgers' solid golf will prove to be the difference, especially on the longer holes later in the day.

Prediction: DeChambeau and Rodgers win

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