Best NFL Bets on Over/Under Win Totals for the 2021 Season
As you assess NFL over/under totals, take a look at trends and offseason changes that could help or hinder a team's progress.
A club that struggled down the stretch in the previous campaign may have done enough to fix its issues for the upcoming season. Conversely, roster departures and the inexperience of new coaches could lead to a rough year, especially for squads with rookies in key positions.
Remember to project with a 17-game schedule in mind. Last year's 9-7 record now lands between 9-8 and 10-7, which means a 10-win season doesn't seem that challenging for a solid squad in the playoff mix.
Using DraftKings' 2021 win totals, we picked five of the best bets and listed reasons to take the over or under for each team.
Houston Texans: Under 4.5 Wins
1 of 5
The Houston Texans have a lot of uncertainty at quarterback.
Deshaun Watson's future remains in doubt with 22 lawsuits filed against him by women alleging sexual assault and misconduct. The Texans said they will allow the legal process to play out.
Earlier in the offseason, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Watson had requested a trade. So even if he's available to suit up for the 2021 season, don't expect him in a Texans uniform.
Tyrod Taylor projects as the opening-week starter, with Ryan Finley and rookie third-rounder Davis Mills behind him on the depth chart.
Taylor is a game manager. He averaged fewer than 218 passing yards per contest in each season between 2015 and 2017 as a full-time starter for the Buffalo Bills. The 31-year-old hasn't recorded more than 20 passing touchdowns in a single season.
Considered the top quarterback in the 2017 recruiting class, Mills draws some intrigue, though he lacks the playing experience because of knee injuries while at Stanford. The former 5-star recruit threw 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions over the last two years.
The Texans parted ways with two of their most accomplished defensive players. They released J.J. Watt after he requested a parting of ways and traded Benardrick McKinney to the Miami Dolphins.
In addition to major question marks on both sides of the ball, Houston started a fresh chapter with new general manager Nick Caserio and first-time head coach David Culley. As a result, we should expect to see growing pains while the team redefines its vision for the future.
In the meantime, Houston will go against the NFC West, one of the league's best divisions, which featured three teams with records of .500 or better last year.
The Texans will face tougher competition within the division as well.
They'll see the 2021 No. 1 overall pick in quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The Indianapolis Colts acquired quarterback Carson Wentz from the Philadelphia Eagles. He'll reunite with Frank Reich, who worked with him through his 2017 Pro Bowl season. Lastly, the Tennessee Titans have Derrick Henry, a two-time rushing champion, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill, the 2019 Comeback Player of the Year.
Kansas City Chiefs: Over 12.5 Wins
2 of 5
The Kansas City Chiefs haven't lost more than four games in a single season with quarterback Patrick Mahomes as a full-starter, winning at least 12 games in each of the past three campaigns.
Now, with an extra game on the schedule, 13-4 looks like the floor for a squad that's appeared in consecutive Super Bowls with arguably the league's best quarterback.
The Chiefs upgraded the left side of their offensive line, acquiring two-time Pro Bowl tackle Orlando Brown Jr. and signing guard Joe Thuney.
Mahomes should have more time to find tight end Travis Kelce and wideout Tyreek Hill downfield. Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire could see bigger holes to run through on the ground.
Quietly, the Chiefs fielded a top-10 scoring defense last season.
L'Jarius Sneed isn't a household name, but he recorded seven pass breakups and three interceptions while allowing a 54.2 passer rating and one touchdown in coverage. For the past two seasons, safety Tyrann Mathieu has earned All-Pro honors. Defensive end Frank Clark and defensive tackle Chris Jones provide a consistent pass rush.
Within the AFC West division, Kansas City may have scoring shootouts with Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, though he will have a new coaching staff. Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr lost his lead receiver in wideout Nelson Agholor and three starting offensive linemen, which may hurt the Silver and Black's offense.
The Chiefs are a complete squad that features stars and ascending talent on both sides of the ball. They're equipped to win 14 or more games in 2021.
New Orleans Saints: Over 9 Wins
3 of 5
Quarterback Drew Brees retired, but don't remove the New Orleans Saints from the playoff bubble yet.
As important as Brees was to New Orleans' success over the years, he missed nine games over the past two seasons and the Saints didn't miss a beat. With Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill under center, the Saints went 8-1 without Brees during the 2019 and 2020 seasons.
Head coach Sean Payton told The MMQB's Albert Breer that the team could alter game plans "week-to-week" to suit the strengths of Hill and Jameis Winston.
Winston has a strong arm and can push the ball downfield, which is something Brees couldn't do over the last couple of years. If the former cuts down on poor decisions that lead to interceptions, the Saints should have a potent offense with star wideout Michael Thomas and running back Alvin Kamara as key pass-catchers.
In the event Winston isn't efficient from the pocket, the Saints can turn the offense back over to Hill, who went 3-1 as the starting quarterback in 2020. He's a dynamic playmaker who forces defenders to account for his rushing ability.
New Orleans lost cornerback Janoris Jenkins, a key cog in last year's top-five defense. via free agency. Patrick Robinson, an 11-year veteran, could play a bigger role at that position. Rookie third-rounder Paulson Adebo possesses great upside. He recorded eight interceptions and 27 pass breakups between his 2018 and 2019 seasons at Stanford.
Paulson could see the field early if the league suspends cornerback Marshon Lattimore after he was charged with receiving a stolen firearm in March.
Trey Hendrickson, the Saints' 2020 sack leader, departed for the Cincinnati Bengals in free agency. Rookie first-rounder Payton Turner could make an impact as part of a pass-rushing trio with Marcus Davenport and Cameron Jordan. In his final collegiate term, he logged five sacks through five games at Houston.
The Saints may finish with a winning division record.
New Orleans swept the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the regular season last year. The Carolina Panthers acquired quarterback Sam Darnold, who has a lot to prove after an inconsistent three-year stretch with the New York Jets. The Atlanta Falcons still have quarterback Matt Ryan and wideout Julio Jones, but they're going to work with a new play-caller in Arthur Smith, who is a first-time head coach.
The Saints should win at least 10 games because of Payton's fluid offensive game plans, and their layers of talent on defense.
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New York Jets: Under 6.5 Wins
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The New York Jets came away with an impressive 2021 draft haul.
Gang Green selected Zach Wilson, who's coming off a stellar season, throwing for 3,692 yards, 33 touchdowns and three interceptions.
Alijah Vera-Tucker projects as a left guard, though he can play multiple positions across the offensive line.
Wideout Elijah Moore should slide into the slot position. He's a crisp route-runner who will play a lot of snaps if the team releases Jamison Crowder.
The Jets may have landed a steal in fourth-rounder Michael Carter. Last season, he ran for 1,245 yards and nine touchdowns at North Carolina.
However, first-time offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur has to put all of that talent together for a cohesive unit. He'll run an outside zone scheme with Tevin Coleman, second-year pro La'Mical Perine and Carter in the backfield. That trio doesn't have much experience, and Coleman has missed 10 games over the past two seasons.
Although head coach Robert Saleh established himself as a top-notch defensive coordinator with the San Francisco 49ers, he's a first-time head coach and his secondary has a glaring weakness on the boundary.
Among the team's cornerbacks, Blessuan Austin has the most experience in a lead role with 16 starts, but he's logged just eight pass breakups without an interception through two seasons. Bryce Hall has just seven starts on his career resume.
In 2021, the Jets will play the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans, the top two teams from the AFC South. On top of that, they'll face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints at home.
Within the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills have roster continuity in key positions with quarterback Josh Allen on the upswing. The Miami Dolphins have a top-10 scoring defense and drafted an explosive wideout in Jaylen Waddle to bolster their passing attack. The New England Patriots added tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith along with wideout Nelson Agholor to upgrade quarterback Cam Newton's pass-catching group.
Unless the Patriots bench Newton for rookie first-rounder Mac Jones at some point in the upcoming season, Gang Green will likely finish last in the division.
The Jets are headed in the right direction, but a rookie quarterback with a first-year head coach and a first-time offensive coordinator will likely need to iron out some wrinkles before the team makes notable strides in the standings.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 8.5 Wins
5 of 5
Because of a disappointing end to the Pittsburgh Steelers' 2020 season, bettors may shy away from the over on eight wins.
The Steelers lost four of their last five regular-season games and gave up 48 points to the Cleveland Browns in a one-and-done playoff exit. Ben Roethlisberger struggled throughout the campaign, but former offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner's play design didn't help him.
Throughout the 2020 season, the Steelers relied on short passes to move the ball in a conservative offense. Pittsburgh replaced Fichtner with Matt Canada, who served as the team's quarterbacks coach last year.
At 39 years old, Roethlisberger's body mechanics may not allow him to throw deep balls with consistency, but in spurts, he can still hit receivers in strides 20 yards downfield.
Roethlisberger had some bright spots against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 16 last year, throwing for three touchdowns without an interception. He has a top-level receiving unit that features JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool with a solid pass-catching tight end in Eric Ebron. Next season, the veteran signal-caller may have more help from the ground attack.
In 2020, Pittsburgh logged the fewest rushing yards in the league (1,351). Rookie first-rounder Najee Harris is a decisive ball-carrier with great vision. He could cover up some warts on an offensive line that lost three starters in the offseason.
If the Steelers offense goes through some rough patches, the defense has enough quality playmakers to keep games close.
Despite the departure of edge-rusher Bud Dupree, Pittsburgh has a solid front seven with T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt up front. Inside linebacker Devin Bush is on track to participate in training camp after he tore his left ACL last October.
The Steelers released Steven Nelson, but they have a solid boundary cornerback in Joe Haden. As the ultimate ball hawk, safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has recorded nine interceptions in 30 games with the team.
Pittsburgh plays in a tough division with the Browns and Baltimore Ravens also coming off playoff appearances. The Cincinnati Bengals offense could put up a lot of points with quarterback Joe Burrow and wideout Ja'Marr Chase together again.
Nevertheless, the Steelers have the offensive firepower to beat their AFC North rivals. With a healthy defense, they can also stifle opposing aerial and ground attacks.
Remember, head coach Mike Tomlin doesn't have a losing season in 14 years with the Steelers. Take the over and expect at least nine wins.
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