NFL Draft 2021: Latest Odds, Expert Mocks and Predictions for Round 1
The NFL draft is finally approaching after a lead-in featuring an endless parade of anonymous scouts' reports, conflicting smokescreens and predraft press conferences that were largely much ado about nothing save for San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan saying he couldn't "guarantee that anybody in the world will be alive Sunday" when asked about signal-caller Jimmy Garappolo's future with the team.
Fans can finally settle into the action Thursday, however, as the NFL draft action commences from Cleveland.
There's isn't much intrigue with the first two picks, as a pair of quarterbacks in Clemson's Trevor Lawrence and BYU's Zach Wilson are expected to go first and second overall to the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets, respectively.
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But the rest of the first round won't be short on drama, starting with the 49ers at No. 3.
Here's a look at some notable NFL draft odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 2:45 p.m. ET Wednesday) alongside a few expert mocks. You can also find a full first-round prediction alongside three takes on what to expect Thursday.
NFL Draft: Notable Odds (Top 5)
Alabama QB Mac Jones: -250 ($250 bet would win $100)
NDSU QB Trey Lance: +300 ($100 bet would win $300)
OSU QB Justin Fields: +400
Florida TE Kyle Pitts: +3300
BYU QB Zach Wilson: +5000
Alabama QB Mac Jones: -305
Florida TE Kyle Pitts: -240
LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase: -167
NDSU QB Trey Lance: -167
OSU QB Justin Fields: +100
Jones, Pitts, Chase: +200
Jones, Pitts, Sewell: +350
Jones, Fields, Chase: +550
Lance, Fields, Chase: +650
Jones, Lance, Chase: +700
Expert Mocks (Top 5 Picks)
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence
2. New York Jets: BYU QB Zach Wilson
3. San Francisco 49ers: OSU QB Justin Fields
4. Atlanta Falcons: NDSU QB Trey Lance
5. Cincinnati Bengals: LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence
2. New York Jets: BYU QB Zach Wilson
3. San Francisco 49ers: Alabama QB Mac Jones
4. Atlanta Falcons: NDSU QB Trey Lance
5. Cincinnati Bengals: Florida TE Kyle Pitts
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence
2. New York Jets: BYU QB Zach Wilson
3. San Francisco 49ers: Alabama QB Mac Jones
4. Atlanta Falcons: Florida TE Kyle Pitts
5. Cincinnati Bengals: Oregon OT Penai Sewell
Round 1 Predictions
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence
2. New York Jets: BYU QB Zach Wilson
3. San Francisco 49ers: Alabama QB Mac Jones
4. Atlanta Falcons: OSU QB Justin Fields
5. Cincinnati Bengals: LSU WR JaMarr Chase
6. Miami Dolphins: Florida TE Kyle Pitts
7. Detroit Lions: Oregon OT Penai Sewell
8. New England Patriots (projected trade with Carolina Panthers): NDSU QB Trey Lance
9. Denver Broncos: PSU LB Micah Parsons
10. Dallas Cowboys: Alabama CB Patrick Surtain II
11. New York Giants: Alabama WR DeVonta Smith
12. Philadelphia Eagles: Alabama WR Jaylen Waddle
13. Los Angeles Chargers: South Carolina CB Jaycee Horn
14. Minnesota Vikings: Northwestern OL Rashawn Slater
15. Carolina Panthers (projected trade with New England Patriots): Virginia Tech OT Christian Darrisaw
16. Arizona Cardinals: Virginia Tech CB Caleb Farley
17. Las Vegas Raiders: Oklahoma State OT Teven Jenkins
18. Miami Dolphins: Michigan DE Kwity Paye
19. Washington Football Team: Notre Dame LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
20. Chicago Bears: Minnesota WR Rashad Bateman
21. Indianapolis Colts: Northwestern CB Greg Newsome II
22. Tennessee Titans: Florida WR Kadarius Toney
23. New York Jets: Miami Edge Jaelan Phillips
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: USC OL Alijah Vera-Tucker
25. Jacksonville Jaguars: TCU S Trevon Moehrig-Woodard
26. Cleveland Browns: UGA Edge Azeez Ojulari
27. Baltimore Ravens: Miami Edge Gregory Rousseau
28. New Orleans Saints: Tulsa LB Zaven Collins
29. Green Bay Packers: Alabama IDL Christian Barmore
30. Buffalo Bills: Alabama RB Najee Harris
31. Baltimore Ravens: LSU WR Terrace Marshall Jr.
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: PSU Edge Jayson Oweh
Atlanta Falcons Take OSU QB Justin Fields
There seems to be a difference of opinion between national and local reporters on what the Falcons will do with the fourth overall pick.
Tori McElhaney of The Athletic has mocked Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields to the Falcons. The same goes for D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, and Eric J. Robinson of The Falcoholic pegs Fields to Atlanta as well.
On the flip side, none of the national reporters listed above have Fields going fourth, and you can add a bunch of others to that list (e.g. Peter King of NBC Sports, Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated and Bucky Brooks of NFL Network).
ESPN's Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler also reported Wednesday that the Falcons are expected to stay put at No. 4 and take Florida tight end Kyle Pitts, with the caveat that things could change depending on what San Francisco does at No. 3 and whether Atlanta receives a "major haul" for its selection.
The guess here is that the local reporters make the right call.
The Falcons may have restructured 35-year-old quarterback Matt Ryan's contract in such a way that releasing him in 2021 or 2022 comes with a $40 million-plus cap hit (h/t Over the Cap), but Atlanta is in prime position to pick a successor who could call signals for the next decade-plus.
This pick is about far more than two years, and Fields is a tremendous talent. Numerous experts peg him as the second-best overall player in this draft, including the B/R NFL Scouting Department.
The former Georgia Bulldog completed 68.4 percent of his passes for 67 touchdowns (nine interceptions) and 9.2 yards per attempt during his collegiate career. That's in addition to 1,133 rushing yards and 19 more scores.
Fields also outdueled the presumptive No. 1 overall pick in Lawrence in the College Football Playoff national semifinal with Ohio State, tossing six touchdown passes and amassing 385 passing yards in a 49-28 win. He did so despite appearing to suffer a brutal injury to his ribcage after a huge hit from Clemson linebacker James Skalski.
"It felt like a bowling ball was just thrown into (my) side," Fields told ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit about the injury (h/t Russell Brown of cover1.net and Zach Koons of The Spun).
"They would've had to tell me that 'you're going to die' or something like that for me to come out of the game. That's what my mindset was."
Fields is talented, tough and electric with the ball in his hands. Atlanta should bring the Georgia native home.
New England Patriots Trade Up and Take North Dakota State QB Trey Lance
Projecting a Patriots-Panthers trade here is the result of playing connect-the-dots.
First, the Panthers have made it no secret that they are "very open" to trading down, with general manager Scott Fitterer going on the record about it in his predraft press conference, per Alaina Getzenberg of the Charlotte Observer.
"We've talked to several (teams), actually, already. I'd say at least five, all in different parts of the draft. There will be a lot more calls this week. We're very open to moving back or open to picking; it just depends on how the board falls, those first seven picks in front of us."
It's a logical move for Carolina, which is coming off an 5-11 season and could use more draft capital. The Panthers also just traded three draft picks (including a second-rounder) for New York Jets signal-caller Sam Darnold, and it appears Carolina is going to see if that works. Of course, Carolina could do a 180 if one of its top quarterback choices magically falls to No. 8.
However, there are some quarterback-hungry teams lurking from picks Nos. 15-20, with the New England Patriots at No. 15 the most notable. The Pats re-signed quarterback Cam Newton on a one-year deal, but unless the 2015 NFL MVP enjoys a career renaissance, he appears to be more of a stopgap than anything.
A few experts (Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports, Jeff Howe of The Athletic) have mocked a Pats trade up to pick Lance, and Daniel Jeremiah of NFL Network responded "heck yes" when asked if he felt Lance would be a good fit in New England (h/t Bernd Buchmasser of Pats Pulpit).
New England can also stand pat and pick an excellent talent at No. 15. If five quarterbacks go before them, it can take someone it considers a top-10 non-QB choice at its spot. But if Lance falls past the top seven, look for a potential Pats-Panthers move.
New York Giants Select Alabama WR DeVonta Smith
The New York Giants scored the second-fewest points per game in the NFL last season, while their defense, which brings back nearly the entire unit outside defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson, finished top-10.
Defensive coordinator/wizard Patrick Graham, who transformed a defense that finished as one of the worst in football in 2019, is also back.
A defensive selection isn't the right play with the No. 11 choice.
Sure, the Giants loaded up on offense via free agency, adding a stud wide receiver in the Detroit Lions' Kenny Golladay and bringing in a sure-handed tight end in the Minnesota Vikings' Kyle Rudolph. They'll also welcome back Saquon Barkley from a torn ACL that cost him 14-plus games in 2020.
But the Giants need to do more to help out third-year quarterback Daniel Jones.
At his best, Jones throws dimes all over the field despite immense pressure up front, and his wheels help him make plays on the ground.
At his worst, he's a turnover machine with poor pocket presence and worse decision-making, leading to a litany of untimely turnovers.
In fairness to Jones, the offensive line has been a work in progress for much of his tenure, and he routinely has been without his top weapons throughout his career due to injury (e.g. Barkley, wideout Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram).
Ultimately, the Giants need to figure out what they have in Jones in year three, and they need to do whatever they can to give him full support so they have a clear picture before making a decision on whether he's truly the team's long-term solution at quarterback.
There's no better way to do that than by selecting Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, who had 117 catches, 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns last year for Alabama.
Who cares that the wide receiver has a wiry frame at 6'0", 166 pounds? It doesn't matter when you're the game's most elusive and shifty player. Defensive players have a hard enough time laying a finger on him, let alone hitting him hard enough to potentially cause an injury.
Also, the tape doesn't lie. Just look at what he did against the undefeated Buckeyes in the championship.
The Giants can go offensive line here, but they'd also have options to go that route in Round 2.
They should take the best and most explosive player available, and with the way the above mock breaks down, the selection is Smith, who will be wearing a gold Pro Football Hall of Fame jacket someday.
For all the latest betting information and reaction, check out B/R Betting.
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