The Prognosticator Is at It Again: UFC 106 Predictions

I know, I know. Too many previews. But after my sterling performance on my UFC 105 picks, did you really think I was going to let a much better card on paper slip through my fingertips without letting you, my dear reader, know whats going to happen?

Of course you didn’t. I guarantee you at least seven correct picks, or I'll shave my head and run around in a Speedo like Ikuhisa Minowa.

 *puts on Mike Goldberg mask* and HEEERE WEEEE GOOO!!

(Sorry. That was totally uncalled for.)

Paulo Thiago (11-1) vs. Jacob Volkmann (9-0)

The Thiago-Koscheck KO is still my favorite MMA moment of 2009. 

I love everything about it. The condescending commentary directed towards Thiago (Joe Rogan is slowly turning into Tommy Heinsohn. When he likes a fighter, he can’t hide it…and when he dislikes a fighter, he can’t hide it, either). The bombs Thiago took with his chin straight up in the air like he was checking out a chick in the 25th row. The way Koscheck walked in with his hands down. The face Koscheck made as he began sitting up, hereby known as the Josh Koscheck “the ref better jump in in the next two seconds or my head is going through the canvas like a meteor crashing into the Earth” face. And my favorite part: Rogan’s call. He was just like “what?” That pretty much summed up everyone's feelings.

The thing is, Thiago is a jiu-jitsu guy. So is Volkmann. When you match up guys with similar styles, one of two things happens: 1. the combatants play to their strengths (in this case, a submission festival) or 2. the combatants concede that their strengths are even, negate that fact, and just swing for the fences like two drunken guys at a bar. I think that scenario one is more plausible here. Even though Thiago KO’d Koscheck, he looked like he wished the fight was on the ground the entire time. I’ll take Thiago by decision in a sub-fest.

Quick post-script: these are two weird looking guys. Thiago looks like a Tekken 6 character, and Volkmann looks like what would happen if you fed a mob goon ten Red Bulls and kept him away from sunlight for a solid year. As you’ve probably noticed, I love playing the “MMA fighter lookalike game”, and I may have found my equal: my friend Ignacio. Watching UFC 105, he compared James Wilks to a Wii avatar and Roli Delgado to something that cant be printed here. High comedy.

My point? This is definitely a future column. Try to contain your excitement.

Random tangent: I pay as much attention to body language and facial expressions as I do to what fighters are actually doing. This leads to me saying things like “Gonzaga looks sad” and “Mike Bisping should consider a switch to decaf.”  

I think it’s a huge indicator of things to come. For example, when Antoni Hardonk fought Pat Barry live on Spike, he looked angry and tense, which is the complete opposite of his demeanor, and refused to touch gloves with Barry. Then he went out and looked awful. Coincidence? Maybe. But it sure didn’t seem like it.

Kendall Grove (10-6) vs. Jake Rosholt (6-1)

Kendall Grove looks like a tattooed Burt. That’s first off. Second, this is a classic “winner gets to be the middleweight gatekeeper for the next year, loser gets his release granted and headlines some sleazy card in Jersey a month later” fight.

Since a promising 2-0 start since winning season three of the Ultimate Fighter, Grove has gone a lukewarm 3-3 since. When he’s on, he’s hell to deal with: a 6’6" middleweight, all arms and legs, with good jiu jitsu skills and a solid clinch game to boot.  But he’s a bit of a frontrunner: If you hit him hard once, he’s either going down like he’s been tasered, or he’s playing it safe for the rest of the fight. He’s like the Vince Carter of MMA.

Jake Rosholt, desperately trying to shed the “just another wrestler” tag, looked relatively impressive in putting an always-game Chris Leben to sleep in his last fight.

He’s only got seven professional fights to his name, but the Leben fight proved that he belongs in the octagon.  However, he was quickly submitted by Dan Miller in his first UFC bout, and Grove is good with submissions, so this fight is a pick ‘em in my mind.

Grove hasn’t fought even a decent wrestler since Ed Herman on the TUF 3 Finale. It’s been a while, right? So I think Rosholt takes Grove down after eating a few on his feet and pounds him out. Rosholt by TKO in round number two.

Jason Dent (28-9) vs. George Sotiropoulos (12-2)

Dent has four consecutive submission wins, including two via my favorite tap-inducer: the anaconda choke. Sotiropoulos is good with submissions as well, and I think they’ll go back and forth on the ground before the more grizzled Dent overpowers the undersized Sotiropoulos and hits him in the head repeatedly before earning the third round TKO stoppage.

Brock Larson (29-3) vs. Brian Foster (12-4)

I don’t have much to say about this fight other than this: They are feeding Foster to Larson after Larson unexpectedly crapped the bed against the unknown Mike Pierce.

This is a showcase fight through and through. Foster comes to fight and will not hesitate to swing for the bleachers, but Larson has the cred, experience, size, skill, and grit. Larson by submission in the first round.

Fabricio Camoes (10-4) vs. Caol Uno (25-12-4)

Uno looked abysmal in his UFC 99 bout with Spencer Fisher. Maybe it’s because they don’t let him wear his Nike’s in the octagon. Whatever. Uno has a ludicrous amount of experience; he was out saving the galaxy when Camoes’ grandfather was in diapers. Yes, that was probably the most cringe-inducing and embarrassing Star Trek reference ever recorded in print, but dammit, it made me laugh. I know I’m a geek. I know this.

Uno’s resume is surprisingly decorated, and his career has become pretty predictable: When he takes chances in fights, he gets knocked out because he has no chin (he tried his Three Ninjas routine on BJ Penn, and 11 painful seconds later, he was more out of it than Crispin Glover when he tried to kick David Letterman. And wow, Star Trek AND Three Ninjas references in the same column? You’re really getting your money's worth, huh?) When he doesn’t take chances, and takes his time, few fighters are more methodical or technically sound.

Camoes’ credentials are that he was submitted by Gleison Tibau, and that he TKO’d someone named “Joe Camacho”. That has to be a stage name. He also won an eight man tournament in 2006 by defeating three men in one night, including veterans Jean Silva and Luciano Azevedo. It takes guts to fight more than once on the same night.

Even though Uno is prone to walking into knockout blows, I think he will yet again play it safe here and go for the top control lay and prey special. However, Camoes will thwart that by taking chances on his feet and on the mat and outpointing good ol’ Uno soundly, 30-27. I even gave you a score.

Ben Saunders (7-1-2) vs. Marcus Davis (16-5)

Aesthetically, this fight is going to look strange. Davis is 5’8" with little reach, and he always stays tight with his punches. Saunders is a legitimate 6’2" and could probably reach me from wherever he is right now.

Not exactly Semmy Schilt vs. Akira Shoji, although I would put it in the same ballpark (but it’d have to be a spacious ballpark, like Comerica. Schilt vs. Shoji might never be topped. I love Japan.)

The only thing Davis really has to watch out for are Saunders’ telephone pole legs. Saunders is good with knees from the clinch, but if the fight ends up there he’ll also have to be wary of Davis crosses coming from well below him.

I thought Saunders folded a little bit in the Swick fight, and I can’t justify taking him here. He’s a talented fighter, no question, but Davis has the experience, strikes and submissions if he needs them. Davis by submission in the third round.

Phil Baroni (13-11) vs. Amir Sadollah (1-1)

Hey, it’s a Phil Baroni sighting! Wow! He was this previous era’s token “one dimensional puncher who scored some highlight reel knockouts and therefore artificially inflated his value to outside promotions.” I love when that happens. It’s like what happened during the 2005 NBA playoffs, when Jerome James played hard (for the first time in his career) for 11 consecutive games (imagine!) and slithered his way into $33 million from the Knicks the following year, followed by him immediately sucking and mailing in games again.

But hey, Baroni has experience galore, decent fundamental wrestling, and a pretty strong chin. Also, you do not want to catch a Baroni hook on the Jay Leno. You thought Amir got taken out by Johny Hendricks…watch what happens if Baroni clips him.

Of course, that’s a big “if.” Amir Sadollah is known for capitalizing on what most fans would agree is the all-time weakest cast in 10 seasons of the Ultimate Fighter, winning the show and the respect of his peers in the process.

The man had no previous professional experience. He scored a controversial “submission” of CB Dollaway, where CB only tapped once. And then Hendricks beat him in 29 seconds, although the stoppage was a little hasty. That's his whole career. It’s not a lot to go off of.

This is quite the clash of styles and mindsets. Baroni has taken beatings from way more lethal fighters than Sadollah, so he doesn’t have to worry about catching one here. He really just has to watch himself if and when the fight hits the ground; Amir is pretty crafty down there.

The question with Sadollah is how he’ll respond to Baroni coming forward like Michael Jackson’s accusers. Can he take a shot? Can he elude Baroni’s punches? If the answer to those two questions is yes, then I’ll take Amir by decision.

For some reason, though, something tells me that Amir will once again wilt under the pressure of his more aggressive foe. Baroni by TKO in the second round after a back and forth battle.

Luiz Cane (10-1) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (17-3)

Can we start calling Banha “Night Train?” You have to admit, Luiz “Night Train” Cane has a great ring to it. It would make him sound like 15% cooler. Whatever we call him, though, the fact is that he has what easily is the toughest fight of his career on his hands with the long limbed 'Lil Nog.

Antonio Rogerio “Minotoro” Nogueira has fought a who’s who of high caliber mixed martial artists, and he’s beaten most of them. He has superb boxing skills, and he’s a BJJ wizard from the bottom position. However, since his shocking upset loss to Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (the biggest MMA upset in the history of gambling), he’s fought (get ready, this list is full of doozies) Todd Gouwenberg, Dion Staring, Vladdy Matyushenko, Moise Rimbon, and the immortal Edwin Dewees. I think it’s safe to say Cane is a healthy step up in competition.

 Meanwhile, Night Train Cane (See, that sounds great, right? ADMIT THAT IT SOUNDS GREAT!!) has handled the B and C level fighters the UFC has given him thus far, but whoever takes this one should get in line for a future title shot. These guys are good.

 I could see this being the Fight of the Night. Both guys are astute at using their reach (Cane with his kicks, 'Lil Nog with his hands), although 'Lil Nog is more cerebral while Cane always has a look on his face like he just found out that he knocked up a hooker.

Bottom line is, this is a tough fight for 'Lil Nog. Cane is better in the clinch, better with his kicks, keeps his hands nice and high and doesn’t waste movements like so many other fighters. Although I don’t see a finish here, I think Night Train takes this by decision and then slaps Joe Rogan hard across the face before realizing that the fight is over.

Josh Koscheck (13-4) vs. Anthony Johnson (8-2)

Hands down, my favorite fight on the card. This boils down to one thing, and one thing only: will Josh Koscheck resort back to his wrestling? Hey, Josh? I know you can't hear me, but do you want to win this fight? Use your wrestling! FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, USE YOUR WRESTLING!!

Of course, nothing would make me happier than a Rumble KO, but I have grown to appreciate Koscheck for two things. First, it’s ridiculous how much better his stand-up has gotten over the years. Second, the guy still has the best shot in MMA. When he wants to take you down, he is going to take you down. However, his hairstyle is tragic.

Johnson has proven to be an absolute dynamo when it comes to his stand up. Ever since his brutal demolition of Tommy Speer, I knew he was going to make some noise in the welterweight division. That was a video game knockout.

He has an explosive style, but unlike many top shelf strikers, his style is not smooth. It is rather herky jerky, to be honest. To quote my friend Matt, Johnson has a “twitch” that is difficult to time and risky to try to disrupt. He has yet to be truly rocked in his UFC career, and while Koscheck has the power to do just that, I don’t think it’s a good idea for him to play with fire.

I don’t want to overanalyze this one, because I could see it going in a variety of directions. Both guys are dangerous, and both guys have legitimate outs to win this fight, but I’m going with my gut and picking Johnson to win by TKO midway through the second round. He is ready for bigger and better things.

Karo Parisyan (18-5) vs. Dustin Hazelett (12-4)

McLovin returns! I’m pumped. Why do they call him McLovin? He bears no resemblance to the Superbad scene-stealer…he’s more like a mutant Justin Timberlake.

Anyway, Hazelett was on a roll before he got hurt, showcasing a spectacular array of “wait, the human arm isn’t supposed to bend that way!” submissions, as well as much improved striking, which I think he’ll want to put on display here.

Why? Because Karo Parisyan’s standup just isn’t that good, yet he often insists on standing and banging, even when it’s detrimental to his ability to win the fight. Hazelett will have a reach advantage, but you know Karo has at least one absurdly good judo throw in him. On the ground, both are skilled, although Hazelett loves submissions while Karo likes to ground and pound.

(Quick tangent I wanted to put in print before it becomes too dated: Karo just has a terrible attitude. After he was stopped by Thiago Alves, he got up and stomped around like an eight year old who was just denied a Happy Meal from McDonalds. It wasn’t a bad stoppage at all, either; I distinctly remember Karo’s body going limp for a second. Then three seconds later, he’s throwing a tantrum. He and Ken Shamrock should get together and swap “Come on, I wasn’t out!” stories.)

I can’t see Karo Parisyan being submitted, but I can’t see him stopping Dustin on his feet or on the ground. I think Hazelett out-positions Karo over three rounds and wins a decision.

(Late update: Parisyan is out of this fight. Hazelett will get Karo's money. Damn it all. Now Karo and Shamrock can trade "Come on, I wasn't out!" stories AND "Lets' see how many ways I can screw up a great oppurtunity" stories.)

Forrest Griffin (16-6) vs. Tito Ortiz (15-6-1)

Let me start out by saying that I cant get enough of this UFC 106 promo. You know the one I mean: it’s got the guy with the goofy voice doing the whole “Tito Ortiz looks to regain his footing and make another run at the Light Heavyweight title” routine, followed by Ortiz throwing a “devestating” right hand that is reminiscent of a man throwing a shot put that’s too heavy.

I love how Tito tries to make it seem like he could actually win the title again. They created this division specifically for him, back when the only other guys were Vladdy Matyushenko, Evan Tanner, and a bunch of cadavers.

I never understood the whole Tito Ortiz thing. He has good takedowns and good ground and pound, but I can honestly think of at least fifteen guys who are better at both things. I think it must be the whole “blond hair, flaming shorts, ex-porn star wife who now weighs less than a can of Mickeys, ‘brash’ personality that couldn’t be more painfully staged” gimmick. At least that’s what I keep telling myself. It can't possibly be because of his fighting prowess. It just cant.

Forrest looks to redeem himself from a surreal loss to Anderson Silva at UFC 102. He’s going to win this fight. Even though he’s had a rough go of it lately, he’s fought way more high caliber opponents, whereas Tito just talks about how he wants to fight high caliber opponents. Big difference.

I see Forrest pumping his jab in the first round, watching Ortiz tire himself out, then slamming 438 kicks into his thigh over the next two rounds as Tito pretends that he wants to throw hands.

Sure, Ortiz might claim to be “injury free”, but he’ll never be “excuse free.” That will be proved after he loses a decision and gives Rogan something right out of his “excuse jukebox,”, something like, “yeah, I tore my ACL in the second round” as he’s showered with boos from drunken hooligans who know damn well that you can’t fight on a torn ACL. Griffin by decision.

UFC 105: 8-3

Combined predictions record: 19-18

Main Event predictions record: 2-0