UFC 258 Predictions: Bleacher Report Staff Main Card Picks
UFC 258 takes place Saturday at UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The main event features UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman against top-rated contender Gilbert Burns.
It's a fight that was supposed to happen last year at UFC 251 but was derailed after Burns tested positive for COVID-19. Now, the two best 170-pound fighters in the world are finally scheduled to collide for divisional supremacy.
The co-main event features the return of 22-year-old flyweight prodigy Maycee Barber. "The Future" hopes to remain on track to climb the divisional ladder against rugged women's MMA mainstay Alexa Grasso.
There are plenty of other big fights, too.
But before UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns goes down this weekend in Vegas, read through our predictions for all five of the main card matchups below.
Jim Miller vs. Bobby Green
1 of 5
Scott Harris: It's hard to know exactly when fandom becomes nostalgia, but we may be at that point with Jim Miller. The guy is a warrior, holding records for the most lightweight wins (19) and most total UFC fights (36, tied with Donald Cerrone). Still, at the battle-scarred age of 37, he's clearly on the downslope. Over the past three years, he's 4-4, with three of those wins coming over guys who are either inactive or no longer with the UFC.
Miller will be tough enough to avoid the knockout (it's only happened twice in his career), but Green will be the one dictating the terms of engagement.
Green, unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: This is a great fight between two lightweight veterans who have amazingly managed to avoid each other until now, despite their many years in the UFC. Jim Miller is the kind of guy you can never count out, even after a ridiculous 36 fights in the Octagon, but his path to victory in this matchup looks very narrow.
He's at his best on the mat, but Bobby Green has a solid 72 percent takedown defense rate and would seem to have the athleticism to outmuscle and out-scramble Miller if the fight does hit the canvas. That suggests we're in for a striking match, which will heavily favor Green.
Green by unanimous decision
Kelsey McCarson
Miller is one of the most enduring figures in the sport. Where Green would seem to have most of the advantages on paper, Miller can play the spoiler simply based on his immense experience inside the Octagon. Green will look like the better fighter through most of the action at UFC 258, but I like Miller to turn things around at the last minute to score the surprise submission win.
Miller, submission, Rd. 3.
Maki Pitolo vs. Julian Marquez
2 of 5
Scott Harris: Your eyes do not deceive you. This is indeed a pay-per-view main card fight. Of course, UFC brass can't control COVID-19 any more than anyone else (try as they might), but still. I mean, it's an OK fight, but I don't know that it's $70 OK.
Anyway, when you don't recognize the names, the upside is that this often means an action fight is in the offing. That should hold true between these two fighters, with Marquez returning from more than two years away from competition. I've liked Marquez for a while, but that's a long time away, and Pitolo is a dangerous striker, with seven of his 13 pro wins coming by knockout. Sound the upset alarms.
Pitolo, TKO, Rd. 2
Tom Taylor: I confess that I am not aboard the Marquez hype train. I wasn't when he was riding wins over Phil Hawes and Darren Stewart in 2017, and I'm certainly not in 2021 when he's closing in on three years away from competition.
That said, he's got the goods to beat Pitolo, who, for all his skill, has already shown that he can be knocked out, submitted and beaten by decision. Unless Marquez is completely ruined by ring rust, he's solid enough to outfight his foe to any of those outcomes. I see him stunning Pitolo on the feet and ultimately finishing the fight via submission.
Marquez, submission, Rd. 3
Kelsey McCarson: My favorite thing about Pitolo vs. Marquez is their nicknames. Just when you think it can't get any better than Pitolo's "Coconut Bombz" moniker, Marquez comes along and calls himself "The Cuban Missile Crisis." Names aside, though, Marquez seems like he possesses more talent and greater upside. I think he'll outwork his foe over three rounds to get back in the win column.
Marquez via unanimous decision
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Ian Heinisch
3 of 5
Scott Harris: It feels like a long time since Gastelum gave Israel Adesanya the toughest fight of Adesanya's MMA career. Since then, he's lost two more, bringing his losing streak to three and his record to 2-4 (1 NC) dating back to 2017. Heinisch's muay thai is formidable and shouldn't be taken lightly. But here's guessing Gastelum pressures his opponent back to the fence and ties him up for a clear if uninspiring decision.
Gastelum via unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: Gastelum's three recent losses to Israel Adesanya, Darren Till and Jack Hermansson raise an interesting question: Is he simply falling short against world-class opposition, or is he beginning his inevitable decline?
It's possible Gastelum's numerous wars are starting to take a toll on him, but I still favor him in this fight. As Scott said, Heinisch has great striking, but given that Gastelum is fresh out of fights with Adesanya and Till, he should be pretty well prepared for that part of his foe's arsenal. Throw in Gastelum's apparent grappling edge, and this looks like the perfect opportunity for him to get back on track.
Gastelum via unanimous decision
Kelsey McCarson: Gastelum still seems to be getting credit from many for making things tough on Adesanya three fights ago, but I'm not sure that's all that valid a viewpoint anymore. While it could be that Gastelum was just matched tough over his last three fights against elite competition, it's just as likely that his losing streak is a sign that his best days are behind him. I also wonder if the former welterweight really belongs in the middleweight division. Heinisch is a late bloomer by MMA standards fresh off knocking out Gerald Meerschaert, and I think he'll finish Gastelum too at UFC 258.
Heinisch, TKO, Rd. 2
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Maycee Barber vs. Alexa Grasso
4 of 5
Scott Harris: This is a pivotal fight for the women's flyweight division, with the winner jumping from the bottom of the UFC rankings to bona fide contender status. Barber appears to be a favorite of UFC brass, with her aggression and camera-readiness positioning her as a star in the making. Can Grasso make it 2-for-2 at 125 pounds by handing Barber her second straight loss? That would be a painful derailment for Team Maycee. But she'll narrowly avoid the upset with a gutty performance that shows she's more than just marketing.
Barber via unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: Barber, whom UFC President Dana White seems to view as a future star, has not fought since she was dominated by Roxanne Modafferi in January 2020. The UFC boss is no doubt hoping Barber gets back on track against Mexico's Grasso in the UFC 258 co-main event, but I have a feeling he'll be disappointed.
Barber definitely has a bright future, but Grasso is experienced and smart enough to win this fight. Look for her to stick and move to avoid Barber's power and outbox her young foe by a significant enough margin to win the judges' favor.
Grasso via unanimous decision
Kelsey McCarson: Barber's loss to Modafferi last year was stunning, but it might have been just the thing the young phenom needed to propel her up toward the lofty heights most people over at the UFC offices seem to think she can reach. Losses have a way of revealing things to fighters they otherwise wouldn't see. I expect the best version of Barber we've ever seen at UFC 258. Grasso is experienced, but Barber takes her down to the ground and smashes her to bits.
Barber, TKO, Rd. 2
Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns
5 of 5
Scott Harris: When I spoke to Usman earlier this week, he acknowledged that Burns wasn't like any other fighter he's faced. Their wrestling and jiu-jitsu, respectively, might cancel each other out, leaving a brawl between two welterweights who know how to crack. The fight may contain a few knockdowns, but for the most part, wrestling (and Usman) will win the day. It may not be glamorous, but, oh well.
Usman via unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: Usman doesn't get the respect he deserves. Rather than applauding him for his lopsided wins over the likes of Jorge Masvidal, Colby Covington and Tyron Woodley, fans tend to fixate on the fact that he likes to wrestle, or that he occasionally uses foot-stomps—as if nobody else ever has.
I think—no, I hope—that this will be the fight that starts to change the way fans view Usman.
Burns is a very complete and dangerous fighter, but Usman will show that he's a step ahead of all of his peers in most phases of the game, earning a clear-cut win with a high-volume, varied striking attack and takedowns as needed.
Usman via unanimous decision
Kelsey McCarson: Burns is as dangerous as they come in the welterweight ranks, but Usman seems to be operating a level or two above everyone else. For whatever reason, fans haven't yet flocked over in droves to support The Nigerian Nightmare, but that will eventually happen so long as he continues to win fights and prove he's the best in the business. Burns has the kind of assets that make him dangerous during all five rounds, but Usman's wrestling will keep him out of the most dangerous positions and carry him to the victory.
Usman via unanimous decision
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