UFC 258: Breaking Down the Best Value Picks for Gamblers

UFC 258 kicks off six weeks of incredible action that includes six title fights in just 42 days. The first big UFC championship showdown of that period is set to feature dominant UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman defending his 170-pound title against top-rated challenger Gilbert Burns at UFC APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday. 

There are other important fights this weekend, too.

Most notably, in the co-main event, things aren't going to be easy for rising phenom Maycee Barber against veteran women's flyweight contender Alexa Grasso. Barber is coming off the first loss of her career last time out, and she enters her next fight as the underdog.

Here are the best value picks for gamblers for the upcoming UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns.

Good Value

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Usman is a tremendous athlete who can outstrike, outwrestle and outfight just about any other fighter in the world. That he doesn't seem to get the superstar treatment from UFC fans yet has nothing to do with how excellent a fighter he is. The bookies seem to know that, and that's why he's been installed as such a heavy favorite over one of the most dangerous 170-pounders in the world.

Burns has shown the ability to strike with the likes of faded former champion Tyron Woodley, and his black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu combines to make him one of the division's most prolific finishers. But Usman lands more strikes per minute, enjoys 100 percent takedown defense and has proven against other top submission artists that his stalwart wrestling skills can keep him out of danger.

I don't usually like to back such big favorites, especially in regards to calling something a "value pick." But the plain truth of the matter is that the implied probability of Usman winning per the odds is 75 percent, and it should probably be more like 80 percent or higher.

Therein lies the value in backing the heavy favorite.

Back Usman by any method at -278 (bet $100 to win $36)

Better Value

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Remember Maycee Barber? The UFC has invested heavily into "The Future" to be precisely what her nickname says. But Barber was lost to veteran contender Roxanne Modafferi last year at UFC 246 in one of the most shocking upsets in MMA history.

Barber is back now, and the UFC didn't do her any favors by pitting her against veteran contender Alexa Grasso. While Grasso hasn't been able to elevate herself to winning UFC gold, she's consistently been a solid fighter.

Still, some of the shine coming off Barber in her last outing means more value for bettors. Barber is still considered one of the top up-and-comers in the sport, and she's now fully recovered from the torn ACL she suffered in her last fight.

Besides, her loss to Modafferi is less likely to keep her from achieving her lofty goals than it is to spur her toward them.

You can back Barber over Grasso at plus money all day here and feel great about it.

Back Barber by any method at +110 (bet $100 to win $110)

Best Value

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Ian Heinisch is a bigger underdog to Kelvin Gastelum than he probably should be, and that means you can be the one to benefit.

Gastelum enters this weekend's card on a three-fight skid. Losing decisions to the likes of UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya and dangerous contender Darren Till is hardly something to be concerned about, but suffering that submission loss to Jack Hermansson over the summer makes those losses seem less like aberrations and more like a real trend.

While Gastelum gave Adesanya a tough fight in 2019, he seems now long divorced from being at the top of his game. The truth might simply be he's a welterweight fighter stuck in the middleweight division.

Whatever the case, Heinisch is an all-around dangerous fighter coming off a stunning first-round knockout victory over Gerald Meerschaert. Heinisch's wrestling game is strong enough to give most fighters trouble, and it seems like he and Gastelum are trending in opposite directions.

Back Heinisch by any method at +175 (bet $100 to win $175)

Bonus Big-Money Pick

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Bonus big-money picks are designed to turn small money into big dividends.

Sometimes it works out. Sometimes it doesn't.

Indeed, last month the bonus big-money pick was Poirier by any method over McGregor, and there were just too many reasons to believe Poirier could pull the upset to outright dismiss the idea completely.

This month, backing Dhiego Lima over rising welterweight Belal Muhammad might also make some sense.

Muhammad is rightly the favorite, but there's just something about getting a crafty veteran riding a three-fight win streak like Lima at such big money that makes it too good an offer to pass up.

Making value picks is fun, but scoring bonus big-money picks is even better sometimes. Roll the dice on Lima, and thank me later.

Back Lima by any method at +251 (bet $100 to win $251)

Odds via DraftKings. Unless otherwise noted, all stats via UFC Stats.

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