NFL Players Dangerously Close to Bust Status

Using a high draft pick on a player who can't solidify a starting role or who doesn't reach the end of their rookie contract is a disaster for an NFL team. Not only is it a waste of a valuable draft pick, but in many cases, it also means the team squandered time that could have been spent developing someone else.

Take the Washington Football Team and its selection of Dwayne Haskins Jr. with the 15th pick in 2019. Washington spent parts of two seasons trying to establish Haskins as the starter before cutting ties with him in December. Washington has nothing to show for its pick, and it's back to square one at quarterback.

At least Washington cut its losses early and can begin the recovery period. Other franchises have not yet reached that point with a recent early draft selection but may be sitting with busts on their hands.

Here, we'll examine some recent picks who are in danger of turning into full-on busts. We'll look at players who were taken in the first or second round and who will still be on their rookie contracts in 2021.

Factors such as performance and injury history will be considered, while players who are no longer with the teams that drafted them—like Haskins and 2018 first-rounder Josh Rosen—will not. They're already busts, at least for the drafting teams. Those from the 2020 class will also be excluded, as not everyone is expected to be a rookie contributor.

Players are listed in alphabetical order.

Sam Darnold, QB, New York Jets

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold may be on his way out. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, "multiple teams" have reached out to New York to gauge his availability.

For now, though, Darnold remains a Jet. This leaves New York with a tough offseason decision: Does the franchise give him an opportunity with new head coach Robert Saleh and his staff, or does it pursue a different quarterback in free agency or the draft? It's a legitimate question, especially since New York holds the No. 2 pick.

Darnold has been much closer to being a bust than a star. The USC product has shown glimpses of special physical talent, but he has never played more than 13 games or thrown more than 19 touchdowns in a season. His career quarterback rating of 78.6 also shows subpar play.

Maybe the Jets give Darnold one last opportunity in 2021, and maybe he thrives away from Adam Gase—everyone knows Ryan Tannehill did. If Darnold continues to play like he did in his first three seasons, though, he'll deserve the bust label.

Andre Dillard, OT, Philadelphia Eagles

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The Philadelphia Eagles used the 22nd pick in 2019 on Washington State offensive tackle Andre Dillard. All they have received for their investment is four starts and 337 offensive snaps.

Dillard was in and out of the lineup as a rookie, and he suffered a torn biceps before the start of the 2020 season that landed him on injured reserve. However, a fluke injury and a limited resume are not the only things pushing Dillard toward bust status.

Philadelphia no longer appears to believe in him. He was drafted as the heir apparent to Jason Peters at left tackle. Less than a year later, the Eagles were reportedly questioning their decision.

"I do know they have major concerns about him presently," Jimmy Kempski of PhillyVoice tweeted last April.

They didn't trade him last year despite making him available, so they'll likely give him another opportunity in 2021. However, if he cannot stay healthy and establish himself as a reliable starter in year three, it will be hard to view him as anything other than a bust.

Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, Las Vegas Raiders

Eric Risberg/Associated Press

Like Dillard, Las Vegas Raiders edge-rusher Clelin Ferrell is a product of the 2019 draft. The Raiders surprisingly selected the former Clemson defender with the fourth pick, in a move that virtually no one saw coming.

While general manager Mike Mayock and head coach Jon Gruden may have believed they were the smartest guys in the room, Ferrell has done nothing to prove them right.

In his two seasons, he has produced 65 tackles and 6.5 sacks. Those might not be bad numbers for a rookie, but Ferrell has started 26 games.

While he did see his quarterback pressures go up from 15 in 2019 to 21 this past season, he also saw his sack total drop from 4.5 to two. Two sacks in 11 games is not what a team wants out of a top-five draft pick.

To make matters worse, Ferrell was firmly outplayed by 2019 fourth-rounder Maxx Crosby, who has 17 sacks and 63 quarterback pressures in his two seasons. This makes it impossible to argue that Ferrell's lackluster performances have been a product of a bad Raiders defense.

Ferrell isn't quite at a bust level, but if he doesn't establish himself as a legitimate threat off the edge in 2021, there's almost no chance Las Vegas will pick up his fifth-year option.

N'Keal Harry, WR, New England Patriots

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

While it may be unfair to call a player a bust after only two seasons, Washington's decision to give up on Haskins shows things aren't that cut-and-dried. The Football Team clearly felt Haskins wasn't trending in the right direction, and that may be how the New England Patriots feel about wide receiver N'Keal Harry.

New England selected the former Arizona State receiver at No. 32 in 2019. He's appeared in 21 games and has produced just 414 yards and four touchdowns on 45 receptions.

While some may argue that Harry's development was hampered by Cam Newton's inconsistent play last season—and they'd be right—it's worth noting Harry played his rookie season with recently crowned Super Bowl champion Tom Brady.

And though Harry did miss the opening stages of his initial year with an ankle injury, he failed to make a strong impression when healthy.

"It's gonna be up to him to put the effort in," Brady told reporters in November 2019. "Everyone's there to help him, but you've got to go out there and do it, and earn it and earn the trust of your teammates."

It won't help that the Patriots are again facing uncertainty at quarterback, but if Harry cannot establish himself as a reliable pass-catcher, he's likely to catch more grief from Patriots fans than passes.

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns

Justin Berl/Associated Press

The Cleveland Browns exercised the fifth-year option for tight end David Njoku, which places him further from the bust label than some of his fellow 2017 first-rounders.

Mitchell Trubisky, Solomon Thomas, Corey Davis, John Ross III, Garett Bolles and Malik Hooker all had their options declined. Taco Charlton, Reuben Foster, Takkarist McKinley, Charles Harris, Gareon Conley, Leonard Fournette and Jabrill Peppers are all with different teams than the ones that drafted them—so is Jamal Adams, but he's a three-time Pro Bowler who wanted away from the Jets.

Still, Njoku is teetering on the edge of bust territory. Despite appearing in 49 games, he has just 1,279 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. Almost exactly half his yards (639 of 1,279) came during his sophomore campaign.

After Cleveland signed Austin Hooper last offseason, Njoku requested a trade.

"We weren't really on the same page, the Browns and I," Njoku told The Jim Rome Show (h/t Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com.

Njoku played in 2020, and the Browns may have a plan for him in 2021. However, his production hasn't been close to what one would expect from a 29th overall pick, and if it doesn't improve, Njoku will likely be considered another 2017 bust.

Billy Price, C, Cincinnati Bengals

Aaron Doster/Associated Press

Injuries and inconsistent play have plagued interior offensive lineman Billy Price since the Cincinnati Bengals selected him 21st in 2018.

Injuries limited him to 10 games as a rookie, but he did start all 10 contests in which he appeared. However, Price has been healthy since then—he's appeared in all 32 games over the last two seasons—but was pushed out of the starting lineup anyway.

Price started eight games in 2019 and only one this past season. According to Pro Football Focus, he played just 208 snaps and was responsible for four penalties and a sack. This is not the sort of reliability—or lack thereof—that a team envisions when it drafts a lineman in the first round.

Presumably, the Bengals will decline the fifth-year option on Price's deal this offseason, making him a free agent after 2021. This is if Cincinnati doesn't cut its losses and trade the Ohio State product on the cheap before the start of the new league year instead.