Super Bowl Over/Under 2021: Chiefs vs. Bucs Point Spread, Final Score Prediction

It's time for the most important game of the 2020 NFL season. At 6:30 p.m. on Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will kick off Super Bowl LV and their battle for the Lombardi Trophy.

It's been a fight for both teams to get to this point, not only with their regular-season and playoff opponents but with the unorthodox campaign itself. The coronavirus pandemic has made this the most unusual NFL season in recent memory, and the Chiefs and Bucs are about to cap it off with arguably the greatest quarterback matchup of a generation—or perhaps of two generations.

Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady is 43, has already appeared in nine Super Bowls and is seeking his seventh Lombardi Trophy. Chiefs gunslinger Patrick Mahomes is just 25 but already has one Super Bowl win on his resume to go with a Super Bowl MVP award and a regular-season MVP award.

Brady has the experience and most of the league's passing records. Mahomes has youth and a rare blend of athletic talent and football IQ. Both quarterbacks are capable of putting points on the board in bunches, which is one reason why this game features a high over/under for any NFL game, let alone a Super Bowl.

Here we'll examine the over/under, along with the latest betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

When: February 7, 2021

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

TV and Live Stream: CBS, CBS All Access

Line and Over/Under: KC -3; 56

Moneyline: KC -157 (wager $157 to win $100), TB +138 (wager $100 to win $138)

Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

This is a tricky over/under to dissect. The Chiefs ranked sixth in scoring during the regular season, while the Buccaneers ranked third. However, both teams have capable defenses—highlighted by playmakers like Shaquil Barrett, Chris Jones, Charvarius Ward and Jason Pierre-Paul. The Chiefs are also dealing with some key injuries on offense.

Starting left tackle Eric Fisher suffered a torn Achilles in the AFC Championship Game, while right tackle Mitchell Schwartz has been out since Week 6 with a back injury. Against Pierre-Paul, Barrett and a Bucs pass rush that produced 48 sacks in the regular season, that's going to loom large.

"That loss of Fisher is, I think a really, really big deal, this time of year," former NFL quarterback Jordan Palmer said, per Pete Grathoff of the Kansas City Star.

Additionally, Mahomes has been dealing with a toe injury that could hamper his mobility.

"Sources say that following the game today against the Buccaneers, Mahomes is expected to see a foot specialist and will likely have surgery to repair his ailing toe," NFL Media's Ian Rapoport wrote. "The expectation is that it won't heal on its own, an indication of just how significant the injury is."

One of Mahomes' biggest assets is his ability to buy time in the pocket and make explosive plays on the fly. The toe injury didn't seem to limit him against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC title game, but the Tampa pass rush is a completely different obstacle.

The Buccaneers secondary leaves something to be desired. While Tampa Bay ranked first against the run and racked up the sacks in the regular season, it ranked just 21st in passing yards allowed.

Against a prolific and explosive group like Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Mecole Hardman, even small breakdowns in coverage could lead to big scoring plays.

Don't be surprised if the Buccaneers do a good job of limiting the number of Chiefs scoring drives but for a handful of short bursts to still lead to Kansas City touchdowns.

On the Buccaneers side, Brady has his own arsenal of talented offensive weapons. From Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to Rob Gronkowski and Leonard Fournette, the future Hall of Famer won't want for pass-catchers in this game.

The key for Brady will be avoiding mistakes. He tossed three second-half interceptions against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC title game, and a similar run of miscues would likely doom Tampa against the Chiefs.

Both teams are likely to get an offensive boost on Sunday, as Sammy Watkins, Cameron Brate and Antonio Brown are all expected to suit up—according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.

This should only add to the shootout potential of this contest.

When the Chiefs and Bucs faced off during the regular season, it was more of a one-sided affair early. Kansas City jumped out to a 17-0 first-quarter lead and then held on to beat the Buccaneers by a field goal.

Even with Tampa experiencing a slow start in Round 1, the game still reached 51 total points. If Brady and Co. can avoid a slow start in the rematch, our guess is that the point total will surpass 56 and that Tampa will keep things even closer than the first time.

Anything can happen, and a few big defensive stops or breakdowns could turn this into a blowout for either team. However, while the last one looked set to be a blowout, it was still close in the end. Expect this one to be close from start to finish and to go down as one of the most memorable Super Bowls of the past several years.

Prediction: Kansas City 30, Tampa Bay 28

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