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Super Bowl Point Spread 2021: Moneyline, Over/Under for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers
February 7, 2021
There are few events on the betting calendar quite like the Super Bowl. Football's biggest spectacle attracts plenty of wagering action, from the off-the-wall prop bets to the traditional moneyline, spread and over/under picks.
The 2021 edition of the game Sunday will be no exception. There are plenty of reasons to love the matchup. Whether you are an avid fan or a regular bettor, it doesn't get much better than a rematch of an epic regular-season game and a battle between top-tier quarterbacks.
Tom Brady will go for championship No. 7 and his first without Bill Belichick. Patrick Mahomes will be going for his second and looking to establish himself as a threat to one day usurp his counterpart as a Super Bowl-winning machine.
It doesn't hurt that we have already seen these two teams play in the regular season, and they put together a great game. The Chiefs won 27-24, with Mahomes lighting it up for 462 yards and three touchdowns.
The oddsmakers expect this to once again be a close contest. Here's a look at the latest moneyline, spread and over/under as we near gametime.
Date: Sunday, Feb. 7
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Line: Kansas City -3
Moneyline: Chiefs -159 (bet $159 to win $100); Buccaneers +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
Over/Under: 56.5 points
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Over/Under Pick
The offenses are getting plenty of attention heading into this game—and for good reason. The Mahomes-led Chiefs offense is one of the most fun things in the NFL. The creative ways they find to attack defenses and the electricity of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are bound to be big stories.
Ditto for Brady. He took the reins of an offense with a cache of weapons and made it more efficient. The all-time great has a ridiculous supporting cast, and the result has been an offense that has gotten better as the season has gone along.
Plus, it's just more fun to bet on the over.
But it might not be where the smart money is this time around. After all, for all the offense in the teams' first encounter, they didn't top the 57-point mark.
The Buccaneers pass rush has to be considered as a serious factor. Led by Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquil Barrett, Tampa Bay has a fearsome duo coming off the edge and had the fourth-most sacks in the league. Add in the fact that the Chiefs are likely to be without starting tackles Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz and that could spell serious trouble for Mahomes.
The quick game with Hill and, to a lesser extent, Kelce could still play a major factor, but the protection for Mahomes is questionable at best.
As far as the Chiefs defense goes, it is far from an elite unit, but it has done a nice job of creating turnovers. It picked off Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield this postseason and forced another fumble against the Cleveland Browns.
On the season, the team forced 22 turnovers, just a few behind the Buccaneers' 25.
As good as Brady has been this season, he is coming off a three-interception game against the Green Bay Packers. Both teams will find ways to pile up the yards, but both have found ways to end drives with turnovers, and it should be expected there will be a few, keeping this game under the total.
Pick: Under
Moneyline Pick
Given the close nature of this matchup, the moneyline might be the more attractive option for Chiefs bettors. The defending Super Bowl champions are favored for a reason, but the Buccaneers seem to have the advantage on both sides of the line of scrimmage.
That's a difficult advantage to overcome, even if Mahomes has proved he's capable of doing so.
Last year, the Chiefs were trailing by 10 against a more physical San Francisco 49ers team before the quarterback caught fire in the fourth quarter and guided the team to three straight touchdowns to win 31-20.
The mystique around Mahomes in these big games is reminiscent of that around Brady at the peak of his powers with the New England Patriots. Even when his team doesn't have all the advantages on paper, it's hard to pick against him.
The defenses may play a bigger role throughout the game than many are projecting, but the quarterback play is still going to be at the heart of the result. Both are bound to make mistakes, and Mahomes is certain to face pressure with both tackles out. But this game feels destined to come down to fourth-quarter heroics.
Twice, the Bucs had a chance to seal a win over the Packers in the NFC title game, and twice Brady threw interceptions, giving the ball back to NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers. His defense was able to get the stops and the win, but it wasn't without stress.
Just two weeks after holding off Rodgers it's a big ask to expect them to do that once again against Mahomes.
Sunday night could be a true torch-passing event as Mahomes gets the best of Brady down the stretch.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Bucs 23
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