Super Bowl Prop Bets 2021: Odds, Box Score, Point Spread Betting Advice

Kristopher Knox@@kris_knoxFeatured ColumnistFebruary 7, 2021

Super Bowl Prop Bets 2021: Odds, Box Score, Point Spread Betting Advice

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    Mark LoMoglio/Associated Press

    Kickoff for Super Bowl LV is mere hours away. At 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs will do battle for the biggest prize in the NFL: the Lombardi Trophy.

    The stakes will be as high as they possibly can be in an NFL contest, and this game should be dripping with drama. For fans looking to add a little more excitement to the proceedings, however, there are multiple options from which to choose.

    Some bettors often choose to place traditional wagers on the moneyline, over/under and point spread. However, some look for more unconventional avenues, like prop bets revolving around the final box score.

    We'll examine each of these approaches here, using the latest information from DraftKings Sportsbook, We'll dive into some enticing box score props and dig a little deeper into how the game itself might unfold.

Super Bowl LV

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    Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

    Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

    When: February 7, 2021

    Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

    TV and Live Stream: CBS, CBS All Access

    Line and Over/Under: KC -3. 56

    Moneyline: KC -159 (wager $159 to win $100), TB +140 (wager $100 to win $140)

Box Score Props

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    Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

    1st-Quarter Moneyline

    • Kansas City -139
    • Tampa Bay +107


    The Chiefs are favored to win the first quarter, and there are a couple of reasons to believe they will. For one, the Buccaneers had no answer for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense when these teams met in the regular season—the Chiefs jumped out to a 17-0 first-quarter lead.

    The second reason is that Tom Brady's teams are notorious for starting slowly in the Super Bowl. In his first nine appearances, his teams have scored a total of three points in the first quarter.

    "Hard to explain why or why not that hasn't happened," Brady said, per Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk. "I'm sure they're all a lot of individual things, why that's happened or not."

    While Brady and the Bucs should be able to put up more than a field goal, it does feel likely that Kansas City will be leading heading into Quarter No. 2.


    Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to Both Score TDs (+170)

    Here's an interesting two-player prop revolving around the possibility of Kansas City wideout Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce both scoring touchdowns Sunday. While it's hard to pick two players to both score in the same game, this doesn't feel like an outlandish bet.

    Kelce is arguably the league's most dangerous receiving tight end in the red zone, while Hill always appears a step or two away from breaking a huge play. He can score from anywhere on the field and make it look relatively easy.

    With Mahomes pulling the trigger, it feels like there's a solid chance that both find the end zone.

    "I'm not really excited playing Tyreek Hill and Kelce and Mahomes," Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians said, per Myles Simmons of ProFootballTalk. "That's a formidable challenge, but our guys will be up for it."


    Patrick Mahomes OVER 325.5 Passing Yards (-118)

    While the Buccaneers will have a chance of derailing the Kansas City offense this time around, it still feels likely that Mahomes will go over 326 passing yards in this contest. In fact, he may not have a choice unless the Tampa defense is unprepared.

    The Buccaneers possess the league's No. 1 run defense, both in terms of yards and yards per attempt allowed. With the playoffs included, the Buccaneers only surrendered 100 or more rushing yards five times this year.

    In short, if the Chiefs hope to move the ball with any consistency—which, naturally, they should—then it's unlikely they will be able to lean on Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the ground game.

    Kansas City will have to put the ball into Mahomes' passing hand early and often. That's a sound strategy anyway, but the nature of this particular defensive matchup makes the over the attractive pick here.

Game Overview

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    Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

    It's the little things that are likely to determine this game. The Bucs run defense could make Kansas City too one-dimensional, for example, which could complicate matters on the injury front for the Chiefs.

    The only players from playoff rosters officially out for this game are Chiefs linebacker Willie Gay and left tackle Eric Fisher. However, Kansas City right tackle Mitchell Schwartz has been out since Week 6. Against Tampa's pass rush—headlined by Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquil Barrett—that could create issues.

    "That loss of Fisher is, I think a really, really big deal, this time of year," former NFL quarterback Jordan Palmer said, per Pete Grathoff of the Kansas City Star.

    For Brady and the Buccaneers, mistakes could be the big concern. The Chiefs have their own capable pass rush, led by Chris Jones and Frank Clark. They also have some tremendous players in the secondary, including L'Jarius Sneed, Charvarius Ward and Tyrann Mathieu. One or two small mistakes from Brady could turn into huge plays for the Kansas City defense.

    And the Chiefs have the offensive firepower to capitalize if this happens. Brady threw three second-half interceptions in the NFC title game, but the Green Bay Packers couldn't turn those takeaways into touchdowns.

    The Chiefs can.

    And this is where the game is most likely to be decided. Mahomes, who has tossed just six interceptions all year, will probably make fewer mistakes than Brady. This may be the only edge the Chiefs need to take home the victory.

    But will Kansas City win by more than a field goal? It didn't in the regular season, and with Brady playing for a seventh Lombardi Trophy, it feels unlikely to happen again here.

    Prediction: Kansas City 31, Tampa Bay 29


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