Super Bowl Odds 2021: MVP, Props List and Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Picks

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistFebruary 6, 2021

FILE- In this Feb. 2, 2020, file photo, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass during Super Bowl 54 against the San Francisco 49ers in Miami Gardens, Fla. The Super Bowl MVP is joining the ownership group of the Kansas City Royals.(AP Photo/Doug Benc, File)
Doug Benc/Associated Press

Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes have seven Super Bowl victories and five Super Bowl MVP awards between them.

It is far from a surprise that the quarterbacks for the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the two favorites to win the Super Bowl 55 MVP on Sunday.

Mahomes captured the Super Bowl 54 MVP after he led the Chiefs to 21 fourth-quarter points over the San Francisco 49ers. The most recent of Brady's four MVPs came from Super Bowl 51, when he led the New England Patriots to a come-from-behind win over the Atlanta Falcons.

It is not impossible for a non-quarterback to win MVP, but it will take a fantastic effort to do so. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are the top candidates to steal the award from Brady and Mahomes. There are also a few intriguing defensive candidates on the list.


Super Bowl 55 MVP Odds

Patrick Mahomes -106 (bet $106 to win $100)

Tom Brady +190 (bet $100 to win $190)

Tyreek Hill +1200

Travis Kelce +1300

Leonard Fournette +2500

Clyde Edwards-Helaire +2800

Mike Evans +3000

Chris Godwin +3000

Devin White +4000

Tyrann Mathieu +4000

Darrel Williams +4000

Full prop list can be found on DraftKings Sportsbook.


Mahomes' reigning MVP status makes him a worthwhile selection, even if he has the lowest odds to capture the title.

The Kansas City quarterback has 17 touchdowns and two interceptions in seven postseason starts. He is 6-1, with the only loss suffered to Tom Brady in the 2019 AFC Championship Game.

Mahomes had 286 passing yards, two touchdowns and a pair of interceptions in Super Bowl 54, and he won the award for his heroics in the fourth quarter.

Brady has made a living on winning in the final 15 minutes, which is one of the reasons why he has four Super Bowl MVPs.

Wide receivers Julian Edelman and Deion Branch were the other MVP winners during New England's six-title run with Brady at quarterback. Edelman won the Super Bowl 53 MVP for catching 10 of his 12 targets for 141 yards in a 13-3 victory over the Los Angeles Rams.

Santonio Holmes produced similar numbers when he took home the honor for his nine-catch, 131-yard game in Super Bowl 43, which was the last championship game to be held in Tampa, Florida.

Each of the two previous Super Bowls to be played inside Raymond James Stadium had a non-quarterback win MVP. Ray Lewis took home the Super Bowl 35 MVP.

It is possible for that run of non-quarterback MVPs to continue, especially with two high-volume receivers on the Kansas City roster.

Tyreek Hill has three consecutive 100-yard postseason games, and he torched the Tampa Bay secondary for 269 receiving yards in Week 12. If Hill adds a touchdown to his normally high catch and yard rates, he could be in the mix for the award, especially if Mahomes does not record astronomically high totals.

Travis Kelce has longer odds to win MVP, but he may end up with a better chance to capture it than Hill because he has scored in six of his 11 playoff appearances. A tight end has never won Super Bowl MVP.

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are at a disadvantage in the MVP race because Hill and Kelce receive the ball on a much more frequent basis than they do. In the NFC Championship Game, Tampa Bay's top two wideouts combined for eight catches and 161 yards. Evans found the end zone on one of his three receptions.

Unless either player goes off for two or three touchdowns, they will need to produce higher receiving totals based off the standard Edelman and Holmes set as the past two wide receivers to win Super Bowl MVP.

A defensive winner is not out of the question since that has happened on 10 occasions. Von Miller (Super Bowl 50) and Malcolm Smith (Super Bowl 48) were the last two to earn MVP from that side of the ball.

Devin White and Tyrann Mathieu have the best opportunities to win MVP for their respective sides because of how much time they spend around the ball. White totaled 26 tackles in his first two playoff appearances against the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers. Mathieu does not have a double-digit tackle performance in seven playoff games, but he does have 33 solo tackles and an interception.

If White and Mathieu are around the ball at all times and play a key role in creating a turnover or two, one of them could be viewed as the top difference-maker in Super Bowl 55.

However, with Mahomes and Brady quarterbacking their respective teams, it may be hard for the defensive players to steal the spotlight.

The MVP could come down to which player is the winning signal-caller. Mahomes led the Chiefs to a 27-24 win over the Buccaneers in Week 12 and has two career victories over Brady.

If the one-time champion outplays the six-time winner on his home field, you would think the MVP honor will be bestowed upon on him unless there is another 250-yard-plus performance from one of his wideouts.

Pick: Chiefs 34, Buccaneers 27 (MVP: Patrick Mahomes)


Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.

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