Super Bowl Odds 2021: Spread Info, Moneyline Picks for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistFebruary 5, 2021

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes during the first half of the NFL AFC championship football game against the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Jan. 24, 2021, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)
Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

Super Bowl LV presents a rare opportunity for NFL bettors. 

Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady-led teams typically have large numbers on the moneyline that have low payouts.

Since Sunday's showdown is expected to be a close affair, you can get both the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at solid value. 

Tampa Bay carries the better number as the underdog, while Kansas City's drop in moneyline value in the last few days makes it a better bet in that fashion.

The Chiefs have been listed as a three-point favorite since the matchup was confirmed, but their history against the Bucs, Brady and the NFC South may make you feel that the moneyline bet is the safer wager than the spread.


Super Bowl LV Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Kansas City (-3)

Over/Under: 56

Moneyline: Kansas City (-159; bet $159 to win $100); Tampa Bay (+140; bet $100 to win $140)


Moneyline Pick

Kansas City over Tampa Bay

Kansas City's status as a three-point favorite is deserved, but it is not guaranteed that it will cover that margin, especially if it moves back up to 3.5 points. 

The Chiefs beat the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, by three points in Week 12. That was one of four victories over NFC South teams by two or three points. 

The 27-24 game marked the fourth time Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady shared the field in an NFL game. All of those contests have been decided by one possession. 

Brady won the first two meetings with Mahomes, both of which were high-scoring affairs. The New England Patriots won a 43-40 regular-season meeting and then took the 2019 AFC Championship Game 37-31. 

Mahomes led the Chiefs to a 23-16 victory over New England in 2019 and helped his side earn a 27-24 win over the Brady-led Bucs in Week 12. 

Brady has a penchant for playing in close Super Bowl games. His first three victories with the Patriots were all decided by three points. 

In fact, eight of the nine Super Bowls Brady participated in have been decided by one score. The 13-3 win over the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl 53 was the only one of the nine to have a double-digit margin of victory.

If history repeats itself, bettors of both teams will be in for a four-quarter sweat, and it could be even worse for those who bet the Chiefs on the spread. 

Although you give up some value with the Chiefs posted at -159, it is still a decent number to bet them on, and it might be the better wager if the Brady keeps it close. 

If the spread somehow drops below three points, Kansas City would be a more appeasing favorite on the spread since one Super Bowl result has been decided by fewer than two points. 

If you favor Brady to win his seventh championship, the value could not be any better, and you could be able to cash in on the Bucs as the moneyline underdog for the second straight game. 

Mahomes is one of the few quarterbacks in the NFL who can go head-to-head with Brady and succeed, but he is still facing off against one of the most successful players in NFL history. 

If Brady conjures up more Super Bowl magic on Sunday, he could make plenty of people happy throughout a decent moneyline payout.


Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.


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