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Super Bowl Odds 2021: Over/Under Line, Spread Picks for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistFebruary 4, 2021

FILE- In this Nov. 29, 2020, file photo, Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) congratulates Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) after their NFL football game in Tampa, Fla. The Super Bowl matchup features the most accomplished quarterback ever to play the game who is still thriving at age 43 in Brady against the young gun who is rewriting record books at age 25.  (AP Photo/Jason Behnken, File)
Jason Behnken/Associated Press

Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady are projected to put on an offensive fireworks display inside Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, on Sunday. 

The over/under for Super Bowl LV is currently set at 56 points, which is a half-point decrease from what it was earlier this week.

While everyone would love to see the NFL's top young superstar and a six-time champion exchange touchdown passes, there is a chance the under pays off. 

Only three of the previous nine Super Bowls that Brady has played in totaled more than 56 points, while Mahomes' first voyage into the championship game featured 51 points. 

The three-point spread in favor of Kansas City could also be hard to figure out since the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by the same margin on Nov. 29.

        

Super Bowl 55 Odds

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Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Kansas City (-3)

Over/Under: 56

Moneyline: Kansas City (-162; bet $162 to win $100); Tampa Bay (+140; bet $100 to win $140)

         

Picks

Over 56

History is on the side of the under, but both quarterbacks have the capability to lead their respective sides either over or close to the 30-point threshold. 

Tampa Bay had 30 points or more in each of the last six contests of their seven-game winning streak, and it averaged 30.7 points in the postseason. 

The Buccaneers defense came up with some crucial stops against the Washington Football Team, New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers, but it still conceded 20 or more points to each opponent. 

Kansas City has familiarity with the Tampa Bay defense from the Week 12 win in which the Chiefs bolted out to a 20-7 halftime advantage. 

That contest finished with 51 total points, but it had the elements of a game that could feature closer to 60 points. Five of the six touchdowns scored that day were 20 yards or longer, and the quarterbacks combined for 807 passing yards and six scoring throws. 

Kansas City's first-team defense has not allowed over 400 total yards since that game, but it has yielded over 300 total yards to five opponents, including the Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills. 

If the two defenses give up around 300 yards on Sunday, there should be plenty of room for Brady and Mahomes to operate and post scores that get close to 30 points. 

          

Kansas City (-3) 

For whatever reason, Kansas City played close games against every NFC South team it faced in 2020. The Chiefs beat the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints and Buccaneers by three points each and fended off the Carolina Panthers by two points. 

One-score margin of victories were also recorded in the two AFC West rematches that Kansas City's starters played in. The Chiefs beat the Las Vegas Raiders by four points in Week 11 and defeated the Denver Broncos by six in Week 13. 

All of that data combined with Brady's 6-3 Super Bowl record suggests Kansas City's margin will be tight if it repeats. 

Tampa Bay did its best over the last three games to dispel the notion that it struggles against the NFL's top teams. The Bucs went 1-5 against playoff qualifiers in the regular season. 

The last one of those defeats was the Week 12 loss to Kansas City in which Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce ran rampant through the Tampa Bay secondary. 

The big-play explosiveness of Hill and Kelce could be the ultimate difference-maker on Sunday. Both players recorded 100-yard games in the first two playoff contests, and they combined for 351 receiving yards in Week 12. 

Hill and Kelce also caught 21 of the 23 balls thrown in their direction against the Bucs. If they remain that consistent on Sunday, the Chiefs could break away and take their second championship in a row.

        

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.

    

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