Browns vs. Steelers: Odds, Stat Predictions for 2021 AFC Wild Card Game
On Sunday night, the Cleveland Browns will play their first playoff game since Jan. 5, 2003. And not only will they be facing a challenging (and familiar) opponent, but they're also likely to be without some key pieces of their team due to positive COVID-19 tests.
The Browns have been unable to practice this week ahead of their AFC Wild Card Round matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They have seven players on the reserve/COVID-19 list, including safety Ronnie Harrison, who will miss Sunday's game after testing positive. They will also be without head coach Kevin Stefanski, who has also tested positive.
Meanwhile, the Steelers will be looking to avoid successive defeats to the Browns after losing against them last weekend. However, Pittsburgh had already clinched the AFC North by that point and rested quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and others in the 24-22 loss.
When Big Ben faced the Browns in Pittsburgh in Week 6, the Steelers won 38-7. They'll be looking for a similar result when the two teams go head-to-head at Heinz Field again this weekend.
Here's a look at the current odds for this AFC Wild Card Round contest, followed by stat predictions for key players in the matchup.
Current Odds
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Spread: Pittsburgh (-6)
Over/Under: 47.5 points
Moneyline: Pittsburgh -265 (bet $265 to win $100); Cleveland +220 (bet $100 to win $220)
Well-Rested Roethlisberger Poised for Big Showing
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After playing only two games in 2019 due to injury, Roethlisberger bounced back to have a solid season in 2020. In 15 games, he's passed for 3,803 yards, 33 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while leading the Steelers to their fourth AFC North title in the past seven seasons.
While the Browns hadn't made the playoffs since the 2002 season, this isn't a new stage for Roethlisberger. The quarterback is a two-time Super Bowl champion who has a 13-8 career record as a starter in the postseason. However, he hasn't notched a playoff win since the 2016 season, so he's overdue for another.
In Week 6, the 38-year-old didn't need to have a big game against the Browns, as the Steelers built a 24-point lead by the second quarter. He went 14-for-22 for 162 yards (all season lows) and a touchdown, but he didn't need to air it out as much as he has in Pittsburgh's other games.
Things could be different this time, though, because the Steelers will want to keep the pressure on with the stakes being so much higher. And the Browns will be hungry to win on their return to the postseason and could at least keep it close.
Expect Roethlisberger to return from a week's rest with a big showing to make a statement early in the postseason.
Stat Prediction: 324 yards and three touchdowns
Mayfield Again Unlikely to Put Up Big Numbers
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Although the Browns beat the Steelers last week to get into the playoffs, Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield didn't have a huge game. He made plays when needed, but he also finished 17-for-27 for 196 yards and one touchdown.
Pittsburgh's pass defense is among the best in the NFL this season, as it ranked third in the league with only 194.4 yards allowed through the air per game. So, it wouldn't be surprising if the Steelers again make it tough on Mayfield to move the ball through the air and limit his production in that regard.
It may not help that Cleveland's offense could be missing some players. Guard Joel Bitonio is going to miss the game, which could affect the Browns' pass protection. And it remains to be seen who else they could be without by the time Sunday night arrives.
If Cleveland is going to generate offense, it may have to rely on its two-headed rushing attack of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, the former having ran the ball effectively in recent weeks. Because of that (and Pittsburgh's tough pass defense), expect another game in which Mayfield finishes with unimpressive stats.
Stat Prediction: 176 yards and one touchdown
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Watt Likely to Power Pittsburgh's Defense
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One of the primary reasons for the Steelers' defensive success has been the play of linebacker T.J. Watt.
In his fourth NFL season, the 26-year-old has 53 tackles, a career-high 15 sacks, two forced fumbles, an interception and seven pass deflections in 15 games.
Like Roethlisberger, Watt got a week off to end the regular season, and that could lead to him coming out of the gate fresh on Sunday night. He hadn't missed a game this season, so perhaps that time off will allow him to quickly make an impact against the Browns.
When Pittsburgh needs a big play, the Wisconsin product is capable of providing one. And with the team's defense likely to open the postseason with a strong showing at home, there's a good chance he will come through yet again.
Watt has only one interception this season, and that came in the Steelers' season opener. Not only will he record another sack and make a big impact in the pass rush, but he'll also find a way to get another interception—and don't be surprised if it comes at a moment when Pittsburgh needs a momentum swing.
Stat Prediction: Five tackles, one sack and one interception
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