Ohio State vs. Clemson: Odds and Score Prediction for Sugar Bowl 2021

The 2021 Sugar Bowl is expected to be the closer matchup of the two College Football Playoff semifinals. 

The Clemson Tigers and Ohio State Buckeyes played at the same stage last season in a game that was determined by six points. 

Clemson comes into New Orleans in the better offensive form and as a favorite of just over a touchdown.

The over/under set for Friday's semifinal suggests more points will be scored in it than the Rose Bowl. The Sugar Bowl total sits at 68, while the Rose Bowl over/under is 66.5. 

Both teams have the offensive firepower to reach the 70-point mark, but the under may be the best bet of the entire matchup based off last season's meeting.

Sugar Bowl Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Clemson (-7.5)

Over/Under: 68

Money Line: Clemson (-286; bet $286 to win $100); Ohio State (+220; bet $100 to win $220)

Score Prediction

Clemson 34, Ohio State 23

Clemson's semifinal games tend to be low-scoring affairs. 

Prior to its 29-23 Fiesta Bowl win over Ohio State, the Tigers held opponents beneath 20 points in each of their three semifinal triumphs.

Even when they lost to the Alabama Crimson Tide in the 2017 Sugar Bowl, the Tigers held the SEC side to 24 points.

While Trevor Lawrence and Co. are capable of throwing 50 points on the board, that seems like a long-shot prediction. 

In its last three games, Clemson's point total decreased from 52 to 45 to 34, and in five of its 10 wins, it scored 42 points or fewer. 

For the over to be in play, Clemson needs to score in bunches and have Ohio State chip with a few touchdowns. 

The Buckeyes are not guaranteed to score at a high volume on Friday after struggling to produce scoring plays in the Big Ten Championship Game. 

The Northwestern Wildcats held Ohio State to 22 points in Indianapolis, and the Buckeyes offense did not start rolling until it committed to handing the ball off to running back Trey Sermon.

In the ACC Championship Game, Clemson held Kyren Williams to 50 rushing yards and it limited the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to 44 team rushing yards. 

If Clemson takes away that element of the Ohio State offense for a few drives, it could create the separation it needs to cover the 7.5-point spread. 

The ground game could also be the key to the Tigers' offensive success, as Lawrence has developed a rushing part to his game in the last year. 

Lawrence ran for 90 yards and a score on December 19 and had 107 yards on 16 carries against Ohio State last season. 

If the junior quarterback and Travis Etienne combine well in both parts of the offense, Clemson may not be slowed down.

Etienne had a rushing touchdown in each of his two playoff games last season, and he caught a pair of touchdown passes in the victory over Ohio State. 

Ohio State has not been perfect on defense for four quarters in many games. It struggled to keep opposing scores low against the Penn State Nittany Lions, Rutgers Scarlet Knights and Indiana Hoosiers, and it allowed Indiana to get within one score in the fourth quarter on November 21. 

Clemson can be trusted more from an experience and consistency standpoint, and those qualities should help it land a fifth National Championship appearance in the playoff era.

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90

Statistics obtained from ESPN.com

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