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Saints, Colts, and Patriots Top Week 11 Power Poll

Todd McGeeContributor INovember 17, 2009

INDIANAPOLIS - NOVEMBER 15: Quarterback Peyton Manning #18 of the Indianapolis Colts celebrates his teams 35-34 victory over the New England Patriots after the game at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 15, 2009 in Indianapolis, Indiana.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Despite losing to Indianapolis on Sunday night, the Patriots held on to the No. 3 spot in my weekly Power Poll. The Saints and Colts remain No. 1 and 2, but the Colts are quickly narrowing the gap.

This Power Poll combines three statistics. The first is a team's adjusted win-loss record, which is computed by adding the number of wins of each opponent a team has beaten and the number of losses of each opponent that a team has lost to. To achieve the adjusted winning percentage, I divide the number of wins by the numbers of wins plus losses.

For instance, the seven teams Cincinnati has beaten have combined to win 30 games, while the two teams they have lost to have combined to lose seven games, giving them an adjusted win-loss record of 30-7, which equates to a winning percentage of .811.

The second statistic compares a team's scoring against the average points allowed by the teams it has played. This is an attempt to measure a team's offensive efficiency.

For example, New England is averaging 28.8 points a game, while the nine teams they have played are allowing only 21.6 points per game, giving New England an offensive efficiency rating of 7.2.

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The third stat compares a team's defensive points allowed versus the average points scored by the teams it has played. This measures a team's defensive effectiveness.

For example, Indianapolis is allowing only 15.8 points per game while their opponents are averaging 21.8 points a game, which gives Indy a defensive effectiveness ranking of -6.0 (negative numbers are good for the defensive ranking).

To achieve the final calculation, I multiply the adjusted winning percentage by three, then subtract a team's defensive effectiveness from its offensive efficiency, and then divide that by 10. I then add that number to the team's adjusted winning percentage number for the final ranking.

Without further ado, here are the results through Week 10 of the NFL season:

RankNFL TeamTotal
1New Orleans Saints4.200
2Indianapolis Colts4.110
3New England Patriots3.372
4Minnesota Vikings3.220
5Cincinnati Bengals3.213
6Arizona Cardinals2.712
7Baltimore Ravens2.686
8Pittsburgh Steelers2.685
9Atlanta Falcons2.669
10Dallas Cowboys2.435
11Denver Broncos2.299
12San Diego Chargers2.241
13Philadelphia Eagles2.108
14Houston Texans2.079
15New York Giants2.059
16Miami Dolphins1.945
17Green Bay Packers1.840
18New York Jets1.722
19San Francisco 49ers1.559
20Carolina Panthers1.157
21Chicago Bears0.907
22Jacksonville Jaguars0.890
23Tennessee Titans0.661
24Seattle Seahawks0.607
25Buffalo Bills-0.045
26Washington Redskins-0.180
27Kansas City Chiefs-0.409
28Tampa Bay Buccaneers-0.544
29Oakland Raiders-0.738
30Detroit Lions-0.799
31Cleveland Browns-0.890
32St. Louis Rams-1.319

If I were a betting man...

I would go with No. 16 Dolphins (plus three-and-a-half according to the Las Vegas Sunset Stations) over the No. 20 Panthers, the No. 9 Falcons (plus six-and-a-half) over the No. 15 Giants, the No. 30 Lions (minus three-and-a-half) over the No. 31 Browns, and the No. 19 49ers (plus six-and-a-half) over the No.17 Packers.

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