Adam Kramer's College Football Locks and Top Bets for Week 16
It comes down to this. One weekend. A limited slate of games.
Some will watch their seasons end. Others will gain access to the College Football Playoff.
Me? I'm looking for a winning year. Amid a sea of highs and lows, it seems fitting that Week 16—a week awash in conference championship games—will define whether we enter the bowl season up or down.
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After a 3-5 week, I am now 41-41. That is a number I am not particularly proud of given where it stood five weeks ago, but it's the reality I face. And yes, there is something poetic about my quest for a winning year being completely even.
Before I deliver my picks, let's first explore the good and the bad from the week that was.
The Good: Oklahoma State (-5.5) at Baylor
Easy. Painless. Drama-free. This is how I wish all my picks were. Unfortunately, we know that isn't possible. Oklahoma State got out to a cozy 28-0 lead in the first half. The final score was an even cozier 42-3. This one felt good in the first 12 minutes. The only problem? It didn't have more company.
The Bad: UCLA (+3) vs. USC
Oh, this one hurt. It still does. It looked like a winner the entire time. Heck, it looked like a winner when USC was in a position to win outright. But rather than play for the field goal with the clock nearing zero, the Trojans scored a touchdown to win 43-38. There have been more chaotic losses this season, but this one was plenty painful.
No matter what happens this week, we will be back. The bowl season and College Football Playoff will, of course, get the full Locks treatment.
Before we arrive there, however, there is work to do and winners to pick. Here are the Week 16 selections, using point spreads provided by DraftKings.
UCLA (-7.5) vs. Stanford
I'm still a believer. I am staggering a little after last weekend's loss, but I am still upright.
Now, before I tell you why I am backing UCLA again, I must offer the same disclaimer I always offer when I back a team the week following a loss.
This is not an emotional play. You must keep emotions out of this. They will do nothing but harm you when it comes to sports betting.
With that said, I still like this team. I like this offense. And assuming Chip Kelly can get his group to move beyond a loss of that magnitude to a top rival, I really believe they could win convincingly against Stanford.
The Cardinal have already opted out of the bowl season—and understandably so—given the year and circumstances surrounding it. While David Shaw's team has played much better in recent weeks, UCLA is the far superior team and genuinely just a few plays away from being undefeated. Let's put that theory to the test.
UCLA 37, Stanford 28.
Coastal Carolina (-3) vs. Louisiana
Oh, I am not done backing teams we lost with a week ago. Not emotional. Not emotional. You know the drill.
I'm going to blame Coastal Carolina's near-loss to Troy on a hangover I didn't think was coming after the Chanticleers beat BYU the week prior. That hangover did indeed arrive, and the Chanticleers are lucky to still be unbeaten.
This is the part where I double down. It's not an emotional double-down; it's a sensible, logical double-down. Despite not looking the part of a lively Group of Five team approaching College Football Playoff consideration, we will see that team this weekend.
Louisiana is certainly a worthy adversary. The same praise bestowed upon Coastal Carolina applies to this worthy team with only one loss. That changes this weekend. Coastal by a touchdown.
Oregon State (+7.5) vs. Arizona State
Yes, there are far more watchable games on the card. No, a playoff team will not emerge from this matchup. But we are here to make money. Picking winners does not demand high-stakes football drama.
The momentum, of course, will trend toward Arizona State after it beat rival Arizona by roughly 6,000 points. That outcome prompted the Wildcats to fire Kevin Sumlin. Given the scale of the blowout, the move was understood.
That game and resulting outcome will undoubtedly create plenty of public steam on the Sun Devils. But having watched more Oregon State this season than I'd like to publicly admit, I think the Beavers have pretty good value.
Don't obsess over their 2-4 record. Oregon State is 4-2 against the spread and lost all but one of its games by six points or less. This team is competitive, has played some of the better teams in the conference and should have a real chance to pull off the upset.
Oklahoma vs. Iowa State (Over 57.5)
In all likelihood, the victor of this game will not be playoff-bound. That doesn't mean you shouldn't watch the Big 12 Championship Game. In fact, given the way these two teams have closed out the year after rocky starts, this has the chance to be one of the better football games of the weekend.
I like points. (I also lean toward Iowa State as an underdog, for those who might be curious.)
But most of all, I like points.
There is star power to be found in both offenses, and star power should shine against defenses that have been good—but not great—throughout the year.
If you have not taken the opportunity to enjoy the work of Iowa State running back Breece Hall much this year, now should be the time. He could have a monster game, and his efforts will likely be countered by Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler. Rattler, in time, will become a star.
Fireworks and scoreboard destruction, ahoy.
Clemson (-10.5) vs. Notre Dame
The first installment of this matchup was football excellence. A ton of points. Big plays. Stars of today and tomorrow doing brilliant things. Overtime. An upset.
When Notre Dame took down Clemson at home as an underdog, lots of boxes were checked.
With Trevor Lawrence sidelined after a positive COVID-19 test, Clemson quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei filled in admirably. But…Lawrence was sidelined. And as good as the freshman was in his absence, it's hard to put into words just how much this game changes with Lawrence in the lineup.
The most jarring improvement I expect to see, however, will come from the Clemson defense. While Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh aren't exactly perfect football barometers, we saw much better performances from this unit in the two games that followed the clash with the Irish. In fact, that loss might have been precisely what the Tigers needed.
The good news for Notre Dame? The Irish are in the playoff. Well, assuming the committee doesn't do anything ridiculous. That also adds an interesting dynamic to a game that isn't necessarily a must-win.
It won't be a blowout, but the Tigers win comfortably.
Clemson 38, Notre Dame 24.
Other Plays on the Card
San Jose State (+6.5) vs. Boise State
Did you know San Jose State is still unbeaten? And did you know this team is 5-0-1 against the spread? No massive angle. No dramatic spin. This team is still undervalued. In the Mountain West Championship Game, that changes.
Mississippi State (+2) vs. Missouri
Now here's a contrarian angle. It's a point spread that is begging for Missouri money, and chances are there'll be plenty of it. While it has been a miserable first year for Mike Leach at Mississippi State, things end on a bizarre high note.
Nebraska at Rutgers (Over 54.5)
Another question. Did you know these two teams are playing what amounts to a televised scrimmage Friday? They are! And regardless of your thoughts on where these programs currently stand, the game might actually be somewhat fun. Here's to points!
Tennessee (+14) vs. Texas A&M
Blowing out Vanderbilt doesn't guarantee future football success, although we'll take it. But going back another game, Tennessee put up a valiant fight against Florida. Playing against a playoff hopeful in Texas A&M, you'll see a similar performance. The Aggies win, but the Vols keep it close enough.
Adam Kramer covers college football for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @KegsnEggs. Lines accurate as of 4 p.m. ET Wednesday.
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