Projecting Top 25 MLB Free Agents' Best, Worst and Most Likely Landing Spot
Now that Major League Baseball's winter meetings are set to begin, maybe the frozen free-agent market will finally heat up.
To this end, we have thoughts on where the top 25 players should, shouldn't and probably will end up.
We considered a number of factors in weighing each player's best, worst and most likely landing spots. For instance, whether they would fill a need and how they would fit in the roster, lineup and stadium in question. And also, whether a given team is reportedly even interested in signing them.
Also of note is that we considered only potential suitors for the "worst" category. It would be easy to point to, say, the Pittsburgh Pirates as the worst fit for everyone. But they and other clubs simply aren't going to be heavily involved with top free agents this winter.
Let's count 'em down.
25. 2B Cesar Hernandez
1 of 25
Best: Oakland Athletics
The A's have a bigger worry at shortstop while Marcus Semien is testing the free-agent waters. But they also have needs for a second baseman and stable leadoff hitter. By way of his .352 career on-base percentage and Gold Glove-winning defense, Hernandez is both things.
Worst: St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals do indeed need a new second baseman after declining Kolten Wong's option for 2021. But Hernandez wouldn't bring much power to St. Louis, which is something the club sorely needs after hitting an MLB-low 51 home runs in 2020.
Most Likely: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have had a revolving door at second base ever since Dustin Pedroia succumbed to the injury bug in 2018. Hernandez would be a good low-cost stopgap who could also improve on the .339 OBP the club got out of the leadoff spot in 2020.
24. RHP Alex Colome
2 of 25
Best: Chicago White Sox
Colome had a 0.81 ERA this past season in part because he excelled at stifling hard contact, allowing only two barrels all year. But he was also aided by a White Sox defense that led the American League in outs above average, giving both sides cause to pursue a reunion.
Worst: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are bound to turn over every possible rock after their bullpen flopped with a 7.06 ERA in 2020. But since their subpar defense wouldn't mesh with Colome's pitch-to-contact style, they're better off chasing strikeout artists.
Most Likely: Chicago White Sox
Plenty of clubs need a closer, but the bulk of them could be wary of assigning the task to a guy who whiffed only 16 batters over 22.1 innings in 2020. If so, the White Sox might have a chance to re-sign Colome for less than the $10.5 million he earned this year.
23. LF Eddie Rosario
3 of 25
Best: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have an opening for a left-handed-hitting left fielder after non-tendering Kyle Schwarber. Rosario, who was likewise non-tendered by the Minnesota Twins, is a natural fit whose .818 OPS against right-handers would make him an ideal platoon partner for David Bote.
Worst: Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays could use a left-handed hitter, and left field is one spot they could potentially put one. But the last thing their leaky defense needs is a guy like Rosario, who posted minus-18 outs above average as recently as 2019.
Most Likely: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are already interested in Rosario, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com. They'd frankly be better off re-signing Jackie Bradley Jr., but they would have room for Rosario in left if they're comfortable filling Bradley's shoes with either Andrew Benintendi or Alex Verdugo.
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22. SP Garrett Richards
4 of 25
Best: San Diego Padres
The Padres were last seen moving Richards to their bullpen after his up-and-down run as a starter in 2020. But they at least kept him healthy after four straight injury-shortened seasons, and his modest strikeout rate should have him itching to reunite with a defense that led MLB in outs above average in 2020.
Worst: Toronto Blue Jays
Though the Jays could use another starter in their rotation, they might want to aim for someone more reliable than a guy whose last 30-start season was back in 2015. Plus, they don't have the defense to accommodate his pitch-to-contact style.
Most Likely: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds will have a huge hole in their rotation if (OK, when) Trevor Bauer signs elsewhere. Knowing how much they value spin rate, it wouldn't be shocking if they replaced Bauer with a guy whose fastball and curveball ranked in the 97th and 99th percentiles, respectively, for spin rate in 2020.
21. SP Taijuan Walker
5 of 25
Best: Minnesota Twins
Walker fits as a mid- or back-end starter in just about every rotation, but few clubs truly need a starter like that as much as the Twins. Plus, a fly-ball pitcher like him should be enthused by the idea of having Byron Buxton and Max Kepler behind him.
Worst: New York Yankees
The Yankees also need to deepen their rotation, but Yankee Stadium isn't the best fit for Walker's pitching style. And after all he's been through with injuries, he should also be mindful of how much trouble the Yankees have had keeping their guys healthy in recent years.
Most Likely: Los Angeles Angels
After their starting rotation ranked 29th with a 5.52 ERA in 2020, the Angels would do well to sign at least two starters this winter. Walker, who went to high school in southern California, is a decent bet to be one of them.
20. LHP Brad Hand
6 of 25
Best: Los Angeles Angels
Though their starting rotation was worse, the Angels bullpen wasn't much better in posting a 4.63 ERA in 2020. The biggest needs in said pen are now a closer and a left-hander for the late innings, so signing Hand would be the ol' two-birds-with-one-stone trick.
Worst: New York Yankees
There aren't any truly bad fits for Hand, but he'd be most out of place in the Yankees bullpen. They already have two late-inning southpaws in Aroldis Chapman and Zack Britton, and Hand's declining velocity generally doesn't fit with New York's preference for high-velo relievers.
Most Likely: Los Angeles Dodgers
19. C James McCann
7 of 25
Best: Milwaukee Brewers
Though McCann has an .808 OPS over the last two seasons, he did the bulk of his damage against left-handers in 2019 (.864 OPS) and 2020 (1.242 OPS). Alongside lefty swinger Omar Narvaez, Milwaukee is one of few places he could work in a true platoon.
Worst: New York Yankees
The Yankees will have an opening for McCann if they trade Gary Sanchez, but that hasn't happened yet. Even if it does, he doesn't have an ideal stroke for Yankee Stadium. Only seven of his 65 career homers have gone out to right field.
Most Likely: New York Mets
By all accounts, the Mets are going hard after McCann. He'd serve in more of an everyday role than a platoon role in Queens, but that would obviously be fine with him. And if nothing else, he'd upgrade the Mets' framing after Wilson Ramos and Robinson Chirinos struggled in that department in 2020.
18. CF Jackie Bradley Jr.
8 of 25
Best: Boston Red Sox
After eight years and 48 defensive runs saved, the Red Sox ought to be desperate to have Bradley back in center field. The man himself, meanwhile, should have misgivings about leaving Fenway Park given that the Green Monster helped boost him to a 1.084 OPS to the opposite field.
Worst: San Francisco Giants
In theory, Bradley fits with the Giants as both the left-handed hitter they want and the everyday center fielder they need. But Oracle Park's massive center field is no country for 30-somethings, and Bradley's opposite-field stroke would be wasted there.
Most Likely: Houston Astros
Whereas the Red Sox seem ambivalent about re-signing Bradley, the Astros seem to like him as a replacement for fellow free-agent center fielder George Springer. The fit there is a good one as Bradley's oppo power would work well in tandem with the Crawford Boxes at Minute Maid Park.
17. SS Andrelton Simmons
9 of 25
Best: Toronto Blue Jays
Yes, the Blue Jays have up-and-coming superstar Bo Bichette at shortstop. Yet he was part of the team's defensive issues—i.e., 29th in MLB in defensive runs saved and outs above average—in 2020, so moving him in deference to one of the greatest defensive shortstops ever would make some sense.
Worst: Cleveland
Cleveland could potentially turn to Simmons after trading Francisco Lindor, which is reportedly a matter of when and not if. But after the offense posted a well-below-average 86 OPS+ in 2020, adding an all-glove, no-bat player would be a bad idea.
Most Likely: Philadelphia Phillies
Though the Phillies' top choice may be to bring back Didi Gregorius, Simmons makes sense as a Plan B if Gregorius signs elsewhere. He'd slot right into Gregorius' vacated shoes at shortstop, from where he might dramatically upgrade a defense that posted minus-eight outs above average in 2020.
16. INF Tommy La Stella
10 of 25
Best: Washington Nationals
The Nats' top priority should be a middle-of-the-order slugger. But they also need a left-handed hitter who could platoon at second, first and third base. That's La Stella, who also boasts an .890 OPS against right-handers over the last two seasons.
Worst: Boston Red Sox
It wouldn't be the worst thing if Boston signed La Stella to platoon with Michael Chavis at second base. But his swing isn't a good fit for Fenway Park, in that he's traditionally inept (.660 OPS and 2 HR) when hitting to the opposite field.
Most Likely: Milwaukee Brewers
La Stella might fit best with Washington, but the Brewers have actually stated their intent to upgrade their infield this winter. To this end, a La Stella-Luis Urias platoon at third base would have the potential to greatly improve on the .574 OPS that came from the position in 2020.
15. LF/DH Kyle Schwarber
11 of 25
Best: Chicago White Sox
Only 15 of the 96 home runs the White Sox hit in 2020 came from the left side of the plate. Whether in left field or at designated hitter, their lineup has at least one role Schwarber could play on an everyday basis.
Worst: San Francisco Giants
They want to add a left-handed hitter, but they already have two good ones (Mike Yastrzemski and Alex Dickerson) in the corners of their outfield. Besides, said outfield is a bit spacious for a 6'0", 225-pounder with limited athleticism.
Most Likely: Chicago White Sox
At least until his market comes into focus, it's hard to tell where Schwarber is likely to play in 2021. But out of all the possibilities for him out there, we simply like the White Sox the most.
14. OF Joc Pederson
12 of 25
Best: Toronto Blue Jays
Regarding the Blue Jays' need for a left-handed hitter, how about one with an .849 OPS and 121 career home runs against right-handers? What's more, Pederson could potentially work on a regular basis in left and right field.
Worst: Houston Astros
Pederson would hypothetically fit with the Astros if they lose both George Springer and Michael Brantley to free agency, but...well, suffice it to say Pederson would be an awkward addition to their clubhouse.
Most Likely: St. Louis Cardinals
Like the Blue Jays, the Cardinals have space for a left-handed hitter in their outfield. They just need Pederson's power a lot more, particularly given that they slugged only .366 against right-handers in 2020.
13. SP Masahiro Tanaka
13 of 25
Best: New York Yankees
Tanaka was a mainstay in New York's rotation for seven years between 2014 and 2020 even though he was pitching through a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament. The fit is still good, and the familiarity with the latter issue is to the benefit of both parties.
Worst: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies rotation already features one guy (Zack Wheeler) who had to miss two years after having Tommy John surgery, so adding a guy with a partially torn UCL would be dialing up the risk a bit too much. Besides, Tanaka's slider-heavy style wouldn't fit with the larger approach of Philly's rotation.
Most Likely: New York Yankees
It doesn't seem like either side is champing at the proverbial bit for a reunion, but it's frankly hard to imagine the Yankees and Tanaka parting ways this winter—especially given that New York has relatively few options for a No. 2 behind Gerrit Cole.
12. RHP Trevor Rosenthal
14 of 25
Best: San Diego Padres
The Padres traded for Rosenthal in August after incumbent closer Kirby Yates was felled by elbow surgery. Rosenthal went on to whiff 17 batters with only one walk in nine regular-season outings for San Diego, so the club should absolutely want him back in the closer's role.
Worst: Washington Nationals
After missing all of 2018 recovering from Tommy John surgery, Rosenthal's comeback attempt began with the Nationals in 2019. It was a massive failure marked by 15 walks and 16 runs in 6.1 innings, so it's hard to imagine or recommend a reunion.
Most Likely: San Francisco Giants
According to FanGraphs, San Francisco's bullpen is projected for an MLB-low 0.4 WAR in 2021. Among other things, that points to how badly the club needs a closer. Rosenthal is one of the best possible options for the job, and his 98.0 mph fastball would be all too welcome in a pen that tied for 28th in velocity in 2020.
11. 3B Justin Turner
15 of 25
Best: Toronto Blue Jays
Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Blue Jays were interested in Turner even before they non-tendered Travis Shaw. He may not have the left-handed bat they need, but the Jays should indeed love the idea of adding a veteran with a .302/.382/.503 batting line since 2014.
Worst: St. Louis Cardinals
Turner is still going strong as a pure hitter, but the 36-year-old's power is fading—he hit only four homers in 42 games this past season. The Cardinals don't need a hitter like that, especially not while they already have a diminished 35-year-old slugger (Matt Carpenter) slated to play third.
Most Likely: Los Angeles Dodgers
Also according to Rosenthal, re-signing Turner is the Dodgers' first choice for their vacancy at third base. It's surely understandable they would want to continue their partnership with Turner, who frankly won't be able to find a better chance to pursue another ring.
10. SS Didi Gregorius
16 of 25
Best: Philadelphia Phillies
Even if they don't trade him, the Phillies really shouldn't move ahead with Jean Segura as their de facto shortstop. They'd be much better off reuniting with Gregorius, particularly given that Citizens Bank Park has the bandbox dimensions to accommodate his peculiar brand of low-exit velo power.
Worst: Oakland Athletics
The A's could turn to Gregorius if Marcus Semien signs elsewhere, but the aforementioned power peculiarity wouldn't work as well at Oakland Coliseum. And at this point, Gregorius is unlikely to make up for any offensive deficiencies with his glove.
Most Likely: Cincinnati Reds
He may not be their first choice relative to trade options like Francisco Lindor and Trevor Story, but Gregorius could nonetheless be the new starting shortstop Cincinnati is reportedly seeking. Contrary to the Coliseum, Great American Ball Park is a great stadium for sluggers.
9. SS Marcus Semien
17 of 25
Best: Oakland Athletics
Along with the Reds, the A's are the only team in MLB with a true need at shortstop while Semien is a free agent. And while he skyrocketed his value with an MVP-worthy 2019 season, he might now be in Oakland's price range after struggling with 0.3 rWAR in 2020.
Worst: New York Yankees
If the Yankees can't re-sign DJ LeMahieu, they might look for a shortstop with the idea in mind to shift Gleyber Torres back to second base. But with only three career homers to right field, Semien doesn't have an ideal swing for Yankee Stadium.
Most Likely: Oakland Athletics
The Reds can almost certainly outbid the A's for Semien, but they may prefer more of a sure thing at shortstop after getting minus-0.3 rWAR from the position in 2020. As a Bay Area native and Berkeley grad, Semien may be all too happy to stay home anyway.
8. RHP Liam Hendriks
18 of 25
Best: Chicago White Sox
By rWAR, Hendriks has been the most valuable reliever in baseball over the last two seasons. So if it's a question of which team is only a shutdown closer away from World Series contention, the White Sox's blend of dynamic hitters and talented starting pitchers makes them stand out.
Worst: Boston Red Sox
To be sure, Hendriks would be a godsend for a bullpen with a 4.81 ERA over the last two seasons. But unless the Red Sox first establish a deeper lineup and a functional rotation, signing him would be putting the cart before the horse.
Most Likely: Philadelphia Phillies
While discussing Colome, we mentioned the Phillies would be best served signing a strikeout artist to lead their bullpen out of the depths in 2021. Hendriks has whiffed 161 batters over his last 110.1 innings, so he fits the bill better than anyone else on the open market.
7. LF/DH Michael Brantley
19 of 25
Best: Houston Astros
The Astros got a .309/.370/.497 batting line with 27 home runs out of Brantley across the 2019 and 2020 seasons. They should and surely do want more where that came from, and the man himself shouldn't be too quick to abandon Minute Maid Park after all it did for his numbers.
Worst: San Francisco Giants
Once again, it's the Giants' intent to add a left-handed hitter this winter. But unless the DH stays in the National League, they wouldn't have a clear place to put Brantley. Moreover, Oracle Park's dimensions would likely render him a singles-only hitter.
Most Likely: Houston Astros
According to Rosenthal, the Astros were discussing a new deal with Brantley pretty much as soon as the free-agent market opened up. He certainly has other suitors, but the Astros will probably only become more aggressive as the possibility of re-signing George Springer becomes more unlikely.
6. DH Nelson Cruz
20 of 25
Best: Chicago White Sox
After he torched them for 11 home runs in 2019 and 2020, the White Sox might sign Cruz just to have him on their side for a change. They could also be motivated to form a "Bomba Squad" of their own so they can dethrone the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central.
Worst: Boston Red Sox
Cruz's market will open up considerably if the DH returns to the National League for 2021. In the meantime, the Red Sox are the only iffy fit for him among AL clubs. Signing Cruz would require them to shift J.D. Martinez into an everyday role in their outfield, which would be sub-optimal on several levels.
Most Likely: Minnesota Twins
After openly expressing their fondness for one another in October, Cruz and the Twins have since gotten locked into a staring contest. Still, it's doubtful the Twins will let a guy who powered their offense with a 1.020 OPS and 57 homers in 2019 and 2020 actually leave.
5. 2B DJ LeMahieu
21 of 25
Best: New York Yankees
LeMahieu was a batting champion in Colorado, so it wasn't that surprising that he hit .336 in two seasons with the Yankees. The 36 homers he hit were the bigger surprise, and it's notable that 19 of those—a high among righty swingers—were to the opposite field. Clearly, Yankee Stadium is the right place for him.
Worst: Boston Red Sox
LeMahieu is such an excellent pure hitter that there really aren't any truly "bad" fits for him. But if he were to sign with the Red Sox, his opposite-field approach would go to waste in the shadow of the Green Monster.
Most Likely: New York Yankees
If the Yankees are going to re-sign LeMahieu, it's going to take a lot more than the $24 million contract that secured his services two winters ago. Yet the fit is oh-so-obvious, and the Yankees don't exactly have to look between the couch cushions for extra spending money.
4. LF/DH Marcell Ozuna
22 of 25
Best: Houston Astros
With his formerly Gold Glove-winning defense now an afterthought, Ozuna's power is easily his top selling point. He specifically specializes in pull power, so we quite like the idea of the Astros signing him as a replacement for George Springer and letting him take aim at the Crawford Boxes.
Worst: New York Yankees
It wouldn't be unlike the Yankees to swoop in and sign Ozuna, thereby adding yet another slugger to their powerful lineup. But they don't have a spot for him, and his pull power isn't a good fit for Yankee Stadium, so it makes sense that they've yet to be mentioned as a contender for his services.
Most Likely: Toronto Blue Jays
Even if they don't necessarily need another right-handed hitter, Morosi claims the Blue Jays are in on Ozuna anyway. If they simply like the idea of having a veteran slugger who can rotate between left field and DH, well, who can blame them?
3. CF George Springer
23 of 25
Best: Washington Nationals
As if losing Anthony Rendon to free agency wasn't bad enough, the Nationals' efforts to replace his offensive production in the aggregate failed spectacularly in 2020. Springer may not be able to play third base, but he could slot into right field and fill Washington's dire need for a right-handed slugger.
Worst: New York Yankees
Springer is a three-time All-Star with a single-season peak of 39 home runs, and he's still a good athlete even at 31 years of age. A guy like that doesn't have a bad fit, but the Yankees qualify for the same reasons they aren't a suitor for Marcell Ozuna.
Most Likely: New York Mets
Springer may be an ideal match for Washington, but the Mets seem to want him more. New owner Steve Cohen can definitely afford a nine-figure contract for Springer, who would be an upgrade over Brandon Nimmo both in center field and in the leadoff spot.
2. C J.T. Realmuto
24 of 25
Best: New York Mets
The Mets were one of many teams that struggled at catcher in 2020, ultimately getting just 0.1 rWAR out of the position. That was mainly Wilson Ramos' doing, and he's now a free agent. Realmuto, who leads all catchers in rWAR since 2017, is, therefore, a round peg for a round hole.
Worst: Toronto Blue Jays
Could the Blue Jays hypothetically use Realmuto behind the plate? Sure. But to put him there would require waving a white flag on 25-year-old backstops Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire. It's a bit soon for that.
Most Likely: Philadelphia Phillies
Though Realmuto theoretically should be the Mets' top target, they apparently prefer James McCann. That may be a relief for the Phillies, who frankly can't afford to lose baseball's best catcher.
1. SP Trevor Bauer
25 of 25
Best: Los Angeles Angels
Even beyond its 5.52 ERA from 2020, one of the distinguishing features of the Angels' current rotation is that it lacks even one guy with truly electric stuff. That should make signing Bauer, a Southern California native who's fresh off winning the NL Cy Young Award, that much more appealing.
Worst: Houston Astros
To his credit, Bauer has backed off trolling the Astros recently. Yet said trolling started well before Houston's sign-stealing scheme came to light, and it naturally continued after that happened. Putting him in that clubhouse just isn't a great idea.
Most Likely: New York Mets
Even with Marcus Stroman back in the fold, the Mets still need another impact starter. Along with Jacob deGrom, a deal with Bauer would give them two Cy Young Award winners atop their rotation. And as Bauer himself seems to understand, the Mets can probably afford him even if they sign Springer first.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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