Heisman Watch 2020: Latest Race Odds and Predictions

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistNovember 22, 2020

Heisman Watch 2020: Latest Race Odds and Predictions

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    Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

    Kyle Trask has been the most consistent college football quarterback in 2020. 

    Week 12's performance against the Vanderbilt Commodores marked the first time this season in which Trask did not throw four touchdowns in a game. 

    Trask was still involved on three scoring plays to reinforce his Heisman Trophy candidacy. His numbers and Florida's position in the rankings have him slightly ahead of Justin Fields on the odds chart. 

    Fields had an opportunity to clear Trask and Mac Jones with a dominant performance against the Indiana Hoosiers. The Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback struggled at the start with turnovers and failed to create a massive gap between himself and Trask.

    Trask, Fields and Jones are viewed as the three most likely Heisman winners going into the final weekend of November. 

    Trevor Lawrence is still in the mix, but he is further down the Heisman shortlists right now because he has not played in a month. 

Kyle Trask, QB, Florida (+125)

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    Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

    Trask was nowhere near the front of the Heisman conversation when the season started, but he has played his way into being the odds-on favorite. 

    On Saturday, Trask turned in his sixth 300-yard passing game and completed over 70 percent of his throws for the fifth time. 

    The Florida quarterback has 2,554 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, three interceptions and a 70.7 completion percentage. The passing yards and touchdowns totals put him in the top five in those categories. 

    Trask's rise to prominence feels similar to that of Joe Burrow in 2019, but the difference between the two is Florida is not on top of the polls like the LSU Tigers were. 

    Florida likely needs to beat the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game for Trask to win the Heisman and to get into the College Football Playoff. 

    If Florida loses, Trask would have two losses to a pair of Top 10 teams. The other occurred on the road against the Texas A&M Aggies. 

    The lack of a playoff berth and only one marquee win over the two-loss Georgia Bulldogs may not be enough to sway voters in his favor, which is why he needs to win out to solidify his favorite status. 

Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State (+175)

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    Jay LaPrete/Associated Press

    Fields did not lose the Heisman on Saturday, but he also did not win it. 

    The Ohio State signal-caller threw his first three interceptions of the season and completed under 70 percent of his passes for the first time in four games. 

    Fields still threw for 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but the offensive surge did not occur until late in the second quarter and early in the third period, when the Buckeyes broke out to a 28-point advantage. 

    With no ranked opponents ahead in the next three games, Fields needs to put up high passing totals to keep his name close to Trask before conference championship weekend. 

    If he faces the Northwestern Wildcats on December 19, Fields would have a tough task on his hands. Northwestern held the Wisconsin Badgers to seven points Saturday. 

    If he marvels in that matchup and outperforms Trask and Jones on that weekend, Fields could gain the slightest of edges that earns him enough first-place votes. 

Mac Jones, QB, Alabama (+250)

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    John Raoux/Associated Press

    Jones appears to be in the perfect position to rise up the Heisman rankings in Week 13. 

    The Alabama quarterback plays in the highest profile matchup of the three contenders against the Auburn Tigers in the Iron Bowl. 

    Auburn will be the third Top 25 opponent Jones gets to play in 2020, which is one more than Fields and Trask. 

    Jones tuned up for the rivalry showdown with 230 passing yards and two touchdowns in Alabama's 63-3 rout out of the Kentucky Wildcats. 

    Saturday's win produced Jones' lowest passing output of the season, but he was not asked to do much against a team that was outmatched from the start. 

    In 2019, Jones gave the Crimson Tide a chance to beat Auburn in relief of Tua Tagovailoa with 335 passing yards and four scores. 

    If he turns in similar numbers Saturday, he could boost his Heisman chances ahead of the SEC Championship Game, which may serve as a knockout game for the individual award between him and Trask. 

Predictions

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    Jay LaPrete/Associated Press

    1. Justin Fields

    2. Kyle Trask

    3. Mac Jones '

    The Heisman race will likely come down to December 19. 

    The SEC Championship Game winner should provide its quarterback with a good chunk of first-place votes, but if Trask and Jones are involved in a high-scoring duel, the loser may still receive votes. 

    Fields has a chance to take the reins of the Heisman race with three unranked foes on the docket and a chance to torch Northwestern's defense, which is something Wisconsin could not do. 

    Ohio State has more explosive talent than Wisconsin, and Fields could use Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson and others to cut up the Northwestern defense. 

    If that happens, Fields could put on an offensive display that sways first-place votes in his direction. 

    He will not be able to match Trask's statistics, but he does have a chance to win a conference title and land in the playoff, which may shift the bulk of Heisman votes in his direction.

    The wild card in this mix is Lawrence, who is +900 (bet $100 to win $900) to win the Heisman, but his inactivity has put him well behind the three favorites at the moment. 

    If Lawrence thrives in his next two games and beats the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the ACC Championship Game, he may move back into the Heisman mix.

                

    Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

    Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.

    Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

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