MLB MVP 2020: Latest Predictions for American, National League Finalists

Baseball's awards season began on Tuesday with the unveiling of the 2020 Gold Glove winners.

However, the marquee hardware is still a week or so away, culminating with the announcement of the MVP Award winners in both leagues on Thursday, Nov. 12.

The six finalists were announced on Monday night. The National League finalists are headlined by Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman in addition to Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Mookie Betts and San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado. Betts will be looking to capture the second MVP trophy of his career.

Two of the three finalists in the American League come from the Central division, with both Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu and Cleveland Indians third baseman Jose Ramirez looking like early favorites. New York Yankees utility infielder DJ LeMahieu is also a finalist. 

Both races could be tightly contested, and the AL will find itself with a first-time winner, regardless of the result. Here are some predictions for the MVP Award-winners in both leagues.

NL MVP Predictions   

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Advanced numbers would suggest the NL MVP is Freeman's to lose. 

The 31-year-old tied with Ramirez for the MLB lead in fWAR, per FanGraphs.

However, there is no denying Freeman's brilliance this season. He slashed .341/.462/.640 with 13 homers and 53 RBI while ranking second in win probability added (WPA), per Baseball Reference. Freeman also ranked eighth in outs above average (OAA), per Baseball Savant. 

Betts is sure to have a case with the voters. He ranked just behind Freeman and Ramirez in fWAR while leading the majors in bWAR, per Baseball Reference. Mookie clubbed 16 homers and had a .927 OPS to go with 10 stolen bases and a Gold Glove in right field. 

Some might be surprised Machado got the nod over his teammate, Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. But Machado's candidacy should not be overlooked. The 28-year-old actually seems to have every bit of an argument by the counting stats, as Machado clubbed 16 homers in addition to a .950 OPS and six stolen bases. He also played sensational defense at third base.

Still, it seems likely the award will come down to Freeman and Betts. Both are centerpieces in a pair of deep and loaded lineups. But the difference for Freeman is he anchored Atlanta's offense while key cogs like Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies missed time due to injuries. 

Freeman has been one of the best players in baseball for the better part of a decade, and he will finally get that deserved recognition with his first MVP.   

Prediction: Freeman wins NL MVP

AL MVP Predictions   

Eric Risberg/Associated Press

Ramirez also appears to have the edge in terms of the advanced numbers, though it might be closer than the sheer numbers suggest.

Ramirez had a 3.4 fWAR, with Abreu and LeMahieu lagging just behind at 2.6 and 2.5, respectively. But FanGraphs often exhibits a bias against first basemen and positioning. Abreu was actually slightly better than even Freeman in terms of OAA, which could be more suggestive of his real value with the glove.

That is not to say Ramirez is not very deserving. He hit 17 homers and had 46 RBI for a Cleveland Indians team that was without a lot of offensive weaponry. Ramirez had a .993 OPS and stole 10 bases, and he also played a respectable defensive third base.

Abreu has the edge in the counting stats, however, He clubbed 19 homers to go along with an AL-high 60 RBI. Whereas most of the Chicago White Sox's talented young hitters cooled tremendously in the final month, Abreu had a .973 OPS in September. Not to mention, he led all AL position players in bWAR. 

Meanwhile, all LeMahieu has done since coming to New York is hit. The 32-year-old won the batting title (.364) while also leading the AL in OPS (1.011) and OPS+. He also defined value for the Bronx Bombers by playing multiple positions with the Yankees lineup once again decimated by injuries.

But LeMahieu could be at a disadvantage in that he played 50 games, while Ramirez played 58 and Abreu played all 60 contests. 

Ultimately, this could come down to which set of numbers voters prefer when evaluating candidates. But Abreu seems to have the mix of counting stats and advanced metrics to appeal to voters.   

Prediction: Abreu wins AL MVP

All stats obtained via Baseball Reference, unless otherwise noted.