NBA Free Agency 2020: Contract Predictions for Fred VanVleet, Top Point Guards
The point guard position can't claim the top rungs of the 2020 NBA free-agent rankings.
It could, however, have a few of the highest ranked players who might actually change teams this offseason.
Assuming Anthony Davis and Brandon Ingram stay put as expected, Fred VanVleet might become the most sought-after hooper-for-hire. Win-now teams might also prioritize a pair of veterans ranked just behind him at the position.
Here are the top point guards on the market and predictions on where they'll suit up in 2020-21.
Fred VanVleet: Detroit Pistons
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The simplest path for VanVleet's free agency leads to nowhere. The Raptors have witnessed his rise from undrafted rookie to impact starter, and they probably don't win the 2019 title without him.
But there will be a finite amount Toronto can spend as long as it can keep its dream of netting Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2021 alive. Given the dearth of options in this market, it isn't hard to imagine VanVleet netting an offer the Raptors can't match.
As a 26-year-old with a championship ring in his collection, he's just young enough to attract rebuilders who want a culture-changer and polished enough to interest win-now buyers. If he makes this a financial decision, though, he should seek out a rebuilder.
Detroit, which still rosters both Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose, might be willing to splurge on an instant-impact player. VanVleet, one of 10 players to average 17 points, six assists and 2.5 triples, fits the bill, plus he spent his first two seasons playing under current Pistons head coach Dwane Casey.
Prediction: VanVleet signs three-year deal with Detroit.
Goran Dragic: Miami Heat
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Dragic, who turned 34 in May, spent much of the past two seasons battling injuries and looking like he'd lost half of a step. But, much like the Miami Heat as a whole, the Dragon was back to breathing fire as soon as he stepped inside the bubble.
Myriad factors went into Miami's surprise sprint to the Finals, but few were bigger than Dragic's resurgence. He opened the postseason with six consecutive 20-point outbursts—for context, he only had two back-to-back 20-point streaks in the regular season—and entered the championship round with playoff averages of 20.9 points, 4.7 assists and a 45.2/36.3/81.4 shooting slash.
A foot injury effectively forced him out of the Finals (he played just 33 minutes across two games), but by that point, he had likely secured his spot on next season's Heat—assuming, of course, he's amenable to a short-term deal with a bloated salary.
"Our free agents, especially Goran, who's been here for five years, it's going to be a little dicey for us because of wanting that flexibility but things can happen prior to that," Heat president Pat Riley told reporters. "We have to take care of our own as much as we can. We don't want to surrender that opportunity if it's there."
Unless a contender puts a big, multiyear offer on the table—the Dallas Mavericks and Philadelphia 76ers seem like logical suitors—Dragic feels unlikely to go anywhere.
Prediction: Dragic re-signs with Miami on one-year contract.
D.J. Augustin: Atlanta Hawks
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Augustin is a professional point guard.
That's not the most glowing review, admittedly, but it speaks to his elevated floor. He'll make shots (career 37.9 percent from three). He'll move the basketball (career 4.0 assists against 1.5 turnovers). He'll perk up a reserve unit and hold his own in spot starts if needed.
It's not a super exciting skill set, but it's what the Atlanta Hawks are missing behind Trae Young. The offense couldn't function without him this past season. Add Augustin to the equation, and Atlanta can suddenly buy some break time for its star point guard.
The Hawks, who accelerated their rebuild with the deadline deal for Clint Capela, could be ready to make their playoff push. Augustin isn't their missing piece, but he could be one of several offseason ingredients that eventually comes together in postseason recipe.
Prediction: Augustin signs two-year deal with Atlanta.
