Trevor Lawrence's Absence Highlights Extra Factor for CFP Committee in 2020

In a typical year, the College Football Playoff selection committee has a challenging job. Sure, while it must be pretty cool to watch football and help determine what happens next, comparing teams based on the slimmest of differences is not easy.

You know 2020 isn't a typical year—neither in reality nor in this narrow college football scope. The selection committee has to weigh an additional factor: COVID-19-related unavailability.

This unavoidable topic is about to receive a whole lot of attention since Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who tested positive for the coronavirus and sat out of last Saturday's victory over Boston College, is expected to miss this Saturday's showdown with Notre Dame because of health protocols.

First, the important note.

More than anything, we're hoping for a safe season; no trophy is more important than someone's health. At the same time, my expertise is far more Playoff-ology than epidemiology, and the CFP is on the horizon. While health and football are intertwined more than ever, the focus is on football-related details.

This weekend, top-ranked and 7-0 Clemson heads to Notre Dame, which is fourth nationally at 6-0. In all likelihood, the teams are destined for a rematch in the ACC Championship Game.

Saturday's result is going to shape narratives. But how heavily should the CFP committee weigh the outcome when someone as impactful as Lawrence is held out?

One potential route is to proceed as normal. Positive tests are part of 2020 and—like any other illness or injury—could affect any team, you might suggest. The players available on game day determine the outcome. That's reasonable. Perhaps a little grim, but reasonable.

Maybe you believe leniency is proper. After all, there is only so much control we have, and these protocols were established with good intentions for long-term health. Clearly justifiable.

And while you might be thinking the question is focused on a Clemson loss, it's more about a Notre Dame win.

Clemson could fall Saturday, win four straight—including the ACC title—and have a strong case for a CFP berth. Conversely, it's plausible Clemson could lose Saturday and in the ACC title game when Lawrence is presumably available and not be a contender anyway.

Either way, the CFP impact is straightforward. There is no agenda or bias to protect Clemson's reputation.

What happens, though, if Notre Dame wins this weekend and then loses a rematch in the ACC Championship Game? The answer to that debate wouldn't be so obvious.

Keith Srakocic/Associated Press

Wouldn't the Irish still have a good argument as a top-four team? Especially during a season in which the Big 12 lacks an undefeated squad and the Pac-12 might also, a victory over a hypothetically 11-1 Clemson would be fantastic. Or, would the Irish simply have caught a break because Lawrence couldn't play the first game?

Context matters, sure, and only the actual games will reveal the relevant factors.

But the committee has used every tool imaginable—from strength of schedule and margin of victory to body clocks, game control and injuries. Any combination can affect their discussions, and we rarely know exactly how or when.

The point is while this dilemma is foreseeable, the answer is unclear. Unless the committee compares a COVID-19-related absence to an injury—and that doesn't feel right—there's no precedent.

Wisconsin's situation, though not identical, is similar.

Morry Gash/Associated Press

As of the latest update, Wisconsin has 12 positive cases among players. They'll return to the field at some point, but what if the Badgers lose once without a few key players, then a healthy roster doesn't lose again?

Since that likely involves a win over a highly respected Ohio State team in the Big Ten Championship Game, the CFP might be in the Badgers' future anyway.

At the very least, however, it's not certain.

Wisconsin already missed a game against Nebraska, and Week 10's tilt with Purdue might not be contested, either. Like the Pac-12, the Badgers might only play six or seven times.

Is that really enough to merit a CFP spot, particularly when either or both of Cincinnati and BYU could finish undefeated with 10-plus games? But if Wisconsin is unblemished when the core of the roster is available, isn't that a more accurate reflection of the team?

Given our platform, you're typically looking for answers in this space. Whether you agree or not, a conclusion is usually found here.

The simple truth is that in 2020, we don't have them.

Perhaps this dilemma won't be a primary factor when the committee puts together its final ranking in mid-December. Every year, we dig into hypotheticals that appear important before an upset or two derails a once-meaningful thought.

But as multiple top programs deal with key absences, the selection committee has to start thinking about how to weigh a potentially complicated aftermath.

Follow Bleacher Report College Football Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.