Early Predictions for the Biggest Shockers of the 2020-21 MLB Offseason
We're in the beginning phases of a unique, uncertain MLB offseason.
Teams are facing the financial realities of a shortened 2020 campaign that featured no fans in the stands. Free agents are entering a market in which lucrative long-term contracts could be difficult to come by. And the league is grappling with what the 2021 season will look like against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic.
With all that in mind, let's go out on a limb and predict 10 shocking developments that could unfold over the next few months, with an emphasis on signings and trades.
For our purposes, "shocking" is defined as things that are within the realm of possibility (no Mike Trout trades) but that would rate as medium- to big-time surprises and send ripples through the baseball world.
Marcus Semien Signs a One-Year Deal
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After the 2019 season, the notion of Marcus Semien settling for a one-year contract would have been absurd.
The Oakland Athletics shortstop had a career year in '19 with 33 home runs and an .892 OPS and finished third in American League MVP voting.
His production took a significant dip in 2020, as Semien slashed .223/.305/.374. Even under normal circumstances, that would have hurt his value entering free agency. Under these anything-but-normal circumstances, Semien may indeed have to settle for a one-year deal.
The first domino fell when the A's declined to offer Semien the $18.9 million qualifying offer. In one sense, that could help his free-agent case since he's not tied to draft-pick compensation. But it's also an indicator that penny-pinching Oakland had a reasonable inkling Semien might accept the offer.
It makes sense. A show-me contract would give the 30-year-old a chance to rebuild his value and enter what could be a less-stingy market next winter.
The list of suitors who'd be interested in a year of Semien's services at or below the qualifying-offer rate could include the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Angels, to name just two clubs with financial resources and a need at shortstop.
San Diego Padres Acquire Josh Hader
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The San Diego Padres made a flurry of trades at the 2020 deadline. Look for general manager A.J. Preller to be active again this winter as the Pads try to catch the world champion Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West.
One area of need could be the bullpen, especially if 2020 acquisition Trevor Rosenthal departs via free agency. And one dramatic solution could be dealing for Milwaukee Brewers left-hander Josh Hader.
Hader's name has floated through the rumor mill since at least last winter, but thus far the Brewers have held onto him.
The two-time All-Star is entering his age-27 season and is controllable through 2023. But he's going to keep getting more expensive in arbitration, and Milwaukee has a late-inning heir apparent in 2020 breakout and NL Rookie of the Year finalist Devin Williams.
This could be the moment to move Hader, and the Friars have the chips in their deep farm system to swing a mutually beneficial swap and land a difference-making arm.
Detroit Tigers Are Serious Buyers
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The Detroit Tigers finished last in the AL Central in 2020. They lost 114 games in 2019 and haven't finished with a winning record since 2016. There's talent in the MiLB pipeline, but the Tigers have all the trappings of a rebuilding club.
That said, Detroit recently hired former Houston Astros manager A.J. Hinch, which could signal an accelerated push toward contention. Setting aside Hinch's role in the Astros' sign-stealing scandal, he was arguably the most high-profile skipper available.
Detroit and general manager Al Avila have dished out big contracts in the not-too-distant past. They could be surprise suitors for some of the winter's biggest names, including stars such as outfielder George Springer, especially if the shaky market brings salaries down from the stratosphere.
"It's our job to deliver [to fans] the quality of baseball that they've been known for generation and generation," Hinch told reporters. "It puts a lot of pressure on [Avila] and a lot of pressure on me."
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Houston Astros Are Shut out on Top FAs
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The Houston Astros finished below .500 in 2020 but pushed to Game 7 of the American League Championship Series. Manager Dusty Baker and Co. are in a win-now window.
Yet they have multiple holes to fill this winter, including in the outfield, where George Springer, Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick are all free agents.
Springer, in particular, was a key piece of Houston's offense. The Astros extended him the qualifying offer, which he's all but guaranteed to reject. And he may not want to return even on a long-term deal.
If the Astros whiff on Springer, they'll need to replace his bat and add reinforcements in the bullpen and rotation. The question is: Will any top free agents want to sign with them?
The 'Stros will likely remain the villains of MLB into 2021 and beyond. And they might not have gobs of money to spend this winter.
Add it up, and Houston could be forced to shop from the market's bottom shelves.
Colorado Rockies Don't Trade Nolan Arenado
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In January 2020, less than a year after signing a massive extension with the Colorado Rockies, third baseman Nolan Arenado expressed displeasure with the team's brass.
"There's a lot of disrespect from people there that I don't want to be a part of," Arenado wrote in a text to MLB.com's Thomas Harding. At the time, it seemed a matter of when, not if, Arenado would be traded.
He's still with the Rox, but expect rumors to once again swirl around the five-time All-Star and eight-time Gold Glove winner.
His skills would measurably improve an array of contenders with a need at the hot corner. Here's the wrinkle: Arenado will make $35 million next season, after which he can opt out of the remainder of his contract.
Any club that acquired him wouldn't know for certain whether it was getting an extremely expensive rental or a guy it'd control (and pay top dollar for) through 2026.
Arenado could swap uniforms before Opening Day. He certainly might want to if his feelings about the Rockies—who finished a disappointing fourth in the NL West—haven't changed.
But we're betting he stays put at least until next winter, when his opt-out decision will loom large.
New York Mets Sign J.T. Realmuto...
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The New York Mets are under new ownership. And with billionaire Steve Cohen at the helm, this could be an exciting offseason in Flushing.
Despite the presence of ace Jacob deGrom and an offense that finished third in baseball with an .807 OPS, the Mets missed the postseason for a fourth straight year in 2020. Look for Cohen to make multiple splashes this winter to try to get his team back to October.
That could include signing catcher J.T. Realmuto.
Realmuto is the best two-way backstop in the game and posted an .840 OPS while rating as the game's No. 2 pitch-framer in 2020. New York has a need behind the dish. Plus, signing the two-time All-Star wouldn't merely make the Mets better; it would also take a key piece away from the division-rival Philadelphia Phillies.
And it would set the Queens contingent up for success, especially if it was paired with another blockbuster move.
...and Acquire Francisco Lindor
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Francisco Lindor will be among the most talked-about trade targets this winter as he enters his final season before free agency.
Cleveland could make one more run with Lindor in the fold and then watch him walk away next winter. But it would be better off swapping him for controllable talent now.
The list of potential suitors would be long and should include the Dodgers, who have been linked to the four-time All-Star.
But the Mets could swoop in with a strong offer, possibly centered around slick-fielding 22-year-old shortstop Andres Gimenez, whose high upside and years of controllability ought to appeal to cost-conscious Cleveland.
New York would surely hope to work out an extension and keep Lindor around for the long haul. But even as a rental, he'd shift the balance of power in the NL East for 2021.
Los Angeles Dodgers Sign DJ LeMahieu
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The safe money is on DJ LeMahieu remaining with the New York Yankees. In 2019, his first season with the Yanks, he was an All-Star and fourth-place MVP finisher. In 2020, he won a batting title with a .364 average and posted an AL-leading 1.011 OPS.
New York extended him a qualifying offer, which he's sure to rebuff. The Yankees have the money to sign him to a lucrative deal, but they won't be the only club in the mix.
It's entirely possible the Dodgers, baseball's other perennial high-roller, could get involved. L.A. is looking to defend a title and has room in the infield, where third baseman Justin Turner is a free agent and young second baseman Gavin Lux may not be ready to assume everyday duties.
LeMahieu has extensive experience at both positions. And his veteran bat would make an already-potent Dodgers lineup downright unfair.
In the end, if the Dodgers and Yankees engage in a bidding war for the 32-year-old's services, the biggest winners will be LeMahieu and his agent.
New York Yankees Sign Trevor Bauer
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Speaking of the Yankees, they'll need to add to a starting rotation that's riddled with question marks behind ace Gerrit Cole.
Re-signing veteran Masahiro Tanaka should be a priority, but the Yanks could use another top-shelf starter if they want to get past the pennant-winning Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East.
A run for New York native Marcus Stroman makes sense, but NL Cy Young Award finalist Trevor Bauer is the winter's biggest prize.
So why would it be shocking for the Yankees, a wealthy club that needs pitching, to ink the best pitcher available?
It comes down to his relationship with Cole. The two were teammates during their college days at UCLA and didn't get along. Could the potential for bad clubhouse chemistry be a deal-breaker?
"We had a rocky relationship in college, because he told me that I had no future in baseball and he insulted my work ethic as a freshman," Bauer told reporters in 2018. "I don't take kindly to those couple things, so we had our issues."
In the same interview, however, Bauer said that "those feelings have long since faded."
If the Yankees are willing to back up the Brink's truck, the hatchet could easily be buried for good.
Toronto Blue Jays Acquire Kris Bryant
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The Chicago Cubs won the NL Central before a first-round playoff sweep at the hands of the Miami Marlins. Now, they're faced with a tough choice regarding key members of their core.
Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Kyle Schwarber are all set to hit free agency after the 2021 season. Bryant, Baez and Schwarber are all entering their final years of arbitration, meaning they could put a serious strain on Chicago's budget and prevent the Cubs from making needed impact additions to the bullpen and starting rotation.
In possibly his final year on the North Side, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein might be forced to trade at least one piece of the beloved 2016 championship team.
It could be Bryant. He's coming off an injury-marred season in which he hit .206 in 34 games. He was set to earn $18.6 million in 2020 before the season was cut short, and he might get a modest raise over that figure in arbitration.
Still, the '16 NL MVP is entering his age-29 season and was an All-Star who hit 31 home runs with a .903 OPS in 2019. If the Cubs are willing to take a less than sky-high prospect return in exchange for salary relief, suitors will line up.
Here's a somewhat outside-the-box notion: What about the Toronto Blue Jays? They have a need at third base with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. slotted at first base/designated hitter. Assuming he's healthy, Bryant could be the veteran spark that pushes the Jays from upstart playoff contender to full-blown powerhouse.
And don't despair, Cubs fans: Chicago could always explore bringing Bryant back next winter.
All statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference.
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