MLB Playoffs 2020: AL, NL Championship Series Picks and Predictions
Now that the 2020 Major League Baseball postseason is down to its final four, it's time to predict which two teams will move on to the World Series.
The American League Championship Series begins Sunday, with the Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays squaring off at Petco Park in San Diego. Atlanta and the Los Angeles Dodgers will get the National League Championship Series rolling Monday, from Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.
Before we offer our picks for each series, we must first determine how these teams stack up. As such, we outlined their starting lineups, likely starting rotations and top bullpen options.
Let's take it away.
ALCS: The Starting Lineups
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Houston's Go-To Lineup
- 1. CF George Springer (R)
- 2. 2B Jose Altuve (R)
- 3. DH Michael Brantley (L)
- 4. 3B Alex Bregman (R)
- 5. LF Kyle Tucker (L)
- 6. SS Carlos Correa (R)
- 7. 1B Yuli Gurriel (R)
- 8. RF Josh Reddick (L)
- 9. C Martin Maldonado (R)
In 2019, at least one metric (wRC+) placed the Houston Astros offense on nearly the same level as that of the 1927 New York Yankees. But after the team's sign-stealing scheme came to light, it wasn't a big surprise when Houston's offense descended into mediocrity in the 2020 regular season.
The Astros did finish with the league's lowest strikeout rate, however, and they were last seen lighting up the Oakland Athletics with a .982 OPS, 12 home runs and 33 runs across four games in the American League Division Series.
George Springer, Carlos Correa, Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman led the way, going 40-for-117 (.341 average) with 11 home runs across the two series. If that fearsome fivesome keeps it up in the ALCS, Houston's otherwise iffy offensive depth won't be an issue.
Tampa Bay's Go-To Lineup
- 1. RF Austin Meadows (L)
- 2. 2B Brandon Lowe (L)
- 3. LF Randy Arozarena (R)
- 4. 1B Ji-Man Choi (L)
- 5. DH Yandy Diaz (R)
- 6. 3B Joey Wendle (L)
- 7. SS Willy Adames (R)
- 8. CF Kevin Kiermaier (L)
- 9. C Mike Zunino (R)
Granted, the Rays don't really have a "go-to" lineup. In addition to the nine players listed above, ALDS hero Mike Brosseau, Manuel Margot, Yoshi Tsutsugo and Hunter Renfroe will also get at-bats in the ALCS.
The Rays did have the second-highest strikeout rate in the regular season, but they overcame that through a mix of power (80 HR) and speed (48 SB). Though they've swiped only two bases, their 14 home runs have likewise helped them shrug off 69 strikeouts through seven games in the playoffs.
The guy to watch is Randy Arozarena, who followed a 1.022 OPS in 23 regular-season games with a 1.371 OPS opposite the Yankees in the ALDS. It's also noteworthy that the Rays are an excellent defensive team, and that their defenders will be more used to Petco Park than Houston's because of the nature of this season's interleague schedule.
ALCS: The Starting Pitchers
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Houston's Likely Rotation
- 1. Framber Valdez (L)
- 2. Lance McCullers Jr. (R)
- 3. Jose Urquidy (R)
- 4. Zack Greinke (R)
Framber Valdez was excellent in Game 2 of the ALDS, in which he fired seven innings of two-run ball against the A's. In so doing, he earned the right to start Game 1 of the ALCS.
Astros starters have still put up a collective 5.08 ERA in the playoffs. Such a figure points to how much they're missing Justin Verlander (Tommy John surgery), as well as to fellow ace Zack Greinke's diminished reliability. To boot, Greinke has been dealing with a sore arm.
At the same time, underestimating Houston's projected foursome is a mistake. Those four guys had an aggregate 3.68 ERA in the regular season. If they need him to start a game, rookie right-hander Cristian Javier also had exactly a 3.68 ERA in 10 starts.
Tampa Bay's Likely Rotation
- 1. Blake Snell (L)
- 2. Charlie Morton (R)
- 3. Ryan Thompson (R)
- 4. Tyler Glasnow (R)
On paper, the Rays have an obvious edge over the Astros in terms of starting pitching. Their starters posted a 3.77 ERA in the regular season and have kept it up with a 3.82 ERA in the playoffs.
But because he started Game 5 of the ALDS, the Rays will likely wait until Game 4 to start de facto ace Tyler Glasnow. There's also the reality that he, Blake Snell and Charlie Morton weren't as dominant in 2020 (3.96 ERA) as they were in 2019 (3.20 ERA).
Nevertheless, the sheer heat that those three can bring (i.e., a 95.4 mph average fastball) might be an advantage against a Houston offense that was just OK against 95-plus mph heat. Assuming he's used as an opener for a game, Ryan Thompson's deception and movement will also challenge Astros hitters.
ALCS: The Bullpens
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Houston's Top Options
- Cristian Javier (R)
- Enoli Paredes (R)
- Ryan Pressly (R)
- Brooks Raley (L)
- Blake Taylor (L)
- Andre Scrubb (R)
- Josh James (R)
In addition to Verlander, the Astros had to get through the 2020 regular season without ace closer Roberto Osuna (elbow). Inevitably, Houston's bullpen took its lumps en route to a 4.39 ERA.
It's been a lot better in the playoffs to the tune of a 2.45 ERA. Much of that dominance has flowed from Javier and Enoli Paredes, who've combined for 12 strikeouts and zero runs in 10 innings.
But the longer the ALCS lasts, the more likely it is that manager Dusty Baker will need other dependable relievers to call on. Specifically, Ryan Pressly has to get back on track after allowing two runs on three hits and a walk in his last outing against Oakland in Game 4 of the ALDS.
Tampa Bay's Top Options
- Nick Anderson (R)
- Diego Castillo (R)
- Pete Fairbanks (R)
- John Curtiss (R)
- Shane McClanahan (L)
- Aaron Loup (L)
- Ryan Yarbrough (L)
Per FanGraphs WAR, the Rays bullpen was arguably the best in baseball during the regular season. It's continued to be solid in the postseason, mustering a 3.45 ERA through the team's seven games.
Particularly dangerous is the late-inning trio of Nick Anderson, Diego Castillo and Pete Fairbanks. Each throws in the mid- to upper 90s. All that heat helped them achieve a 1.81 ERA in the regular season, and has thus far been put toward three runs allowed and 20 strikeouts through 16 innings in the postseason.
The other relievers that manager Kevin Cash can call on offer an abundance of speeds and looks. In totality, it's a darn good bullpen.
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NLCS: The Starting Lineups
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Atlanta's Go-To Lineup
- 1. CF Ronald Acuna Jr. (R)
- 2. 1B Freddie Freeman (L)
- 3. DH Marcell Ozuna (R)
- 4. C Travis d'Arnaud (R)
- 5. 2B Ozzie Albies (S)
- 6. SS Dansby Swanson (R)
- 7. LF Adam Duvall (R)
- 8. RF Nick Markakis (L)
- 9. 3B Austin Riley (R)
Atlanta's offense had a tough time in its NL Wild Card Series, racking up 35 strikeouts and scoring only six runs against the Cincinnati Reds. It was better against the Miami Marlins in the Division Series, scoring 18 runs with an .818 OPS in three games.
The latter performance is a truer reflection of the quality of Atlanta's offense. It effectively co-led MLB in runs per game and finished second in home runs during the regular season, and it finished red-hot with a league-best .887 OPS in September.
Much of that success was driven by Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna and Ronald Acuna Jr., who had a 1.058 OPS and 45 homers between them in the regular season. The hotter they get in the NLCS, the easier it will be for Atlanta to advance to its first World Series since 1999.
Los Angeles' Go-To Lineup
- 1. RF Mookie Betts (R)
- 2. SS Corey Seager (L)
- 3. 3B Justin Turner (R)
- 4. 1B Max Muncy (L)
- 5. C Will Smith (R)
- 6. CF Cody Bellinger (L)
- 7. LF AJ Pollock (R)
- 8. DH Joc Pederson (L)
- 9. 2B Chris Taylor (R)
The one team that (albeit slightly) outscored and outhomered Atlanta in the regular season? Sure enough, it was none other than the Dodgers.
That speaks largely to how much the Dodgers got out of stars like Mookie Betts and Corey Seager, who teamed up for a .935 OPS and 31 homers in the regular season. Yet it's also a testament to their depth, as there isn't a single easy out in their lineup on a good day.
It's slightly alarming that the Dodgers have hit only two home runs in the playoffs. That they've yet to lose a game anyway is a testament to the versatility of their offense—and to their defense. Like the Rays at Petco Park, said defense also has the advantage of having gotten used to Globe Life Field's dimensions.
NLCS: The Starting Pitchers
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Atlanta's Likely Rotation
- 1. Max Fried (L)
- 2. Ian Anderson (R)
- 3. Kyle Wright (R)
- 4. Bryse Wilson (R)
Atlanta's starting pitching has been dominant in the postseason, allowing only four runs with 33 strikeouts through 28.2 innings.
It's not the biggest shocker that Max Fried and Ian Anderson have excelled, as they were responsible for a combined 2.14 ERA in 17 starts in the regular season. Kyle Wright likewise finished strong with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts and kept it up with six shutout innings in Game 3 of the NLDS.
It's after these three that questions materialize. Atlanta's starters had a 5.51 ERA in the regular season despite the work of Fried, Anderson and Wright. Whether it's Bryse Wilson or someone else, manager Brian Snitker will have a tough call on who to trust for Game 4.
Los Angeles' Likely Rotation
- 1. Walker Buehler (R)
- 2. Clayton Kershaw (L)
- 3. Dustin May (R)
- 4. Julio Urias (L)
- 5. Tony Gonsolin (R)
Contrary to Atlanta, the Dodgers got an NL-best 3.29 ERA out of their rotation in the regular season. Not much has changed in the playoffs, wherein their starters have logged a 2.45 ERA through five games.
To be sure, the Dodgers can't rest too easy with their starting options. Walker Buehler has become a four-inning pitcher because of a nagging blister issue. Clayton Kershaw can pitch deeper into games, but the veteran ace's playoff troubles have been well-documented.
NLCS: The Bullpens
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Atlanta's Top Options
- Mark Melancon (R)
- Will Smith (L)
- Shane Greene (R)
- Tyler Matzek (L)
- Chris Martin (R)
- Darren O'Day (R)
- A.J. Minter (L)
- Jacob Webb (R)
Atlanta's offense isn't the only reason that the club's shaky starting pitching didn't sink its playoff chances in the regular season. The team's bullpen also played a role in posting a solid 3.50 ERA.
So it goes in the postseason. Atlanta's relievers have handled 20.1 innings and allowed only one run on 10 hits and four walks, with 26 strikeouts.
What's scary is just how deep Atlanta's pen goes. Excepting Will Smith, the names listed above combined for a 1.86 ERA in the regular season. Yet Smith comes with All-Star credentials, and he's lived up to them with four hitless, walkless appearances in the playoffs.
Los Angeles' Top Options
- Kenley Jansen (R)
- Brusdar Graterol (R)
- Blake Treinen (R)
- Dylan Floro (R)
- Joe Kelly (R)
- Jake McGee (L)
- Pedro Baez (R)
- Adam Kolarek (L)
- Victor Gonzalez (L)
Despite the merits of Atlanta's bullpen, this is still another area where the Dodgers would seem to have an edge on paper. After all, their pen led the NL with a 2.74 ERA in the regular season.
In reality, though, manager Dave Roberts always has to think twice before trusting Joe Kelly and Pedro Baez. That uncertainty has since been extended to closer Kenley Jansen, who most recently had to be removed from the ninth inning of the Dodgers' win over the San Diego Padres in Game 2 of the NLDS.
Dodgers relievers have nonetheless posted a 1.64 ERA in the playoffs, but that was largely thanks to a dominant long-relief effort by Urias in Game 3 of the NLDS. In the NLCS, he and Los Angeles' other de-facto starters may have to stick to starting.
Picking the ALCS and NLCS Winners
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American League Championship Series
The Astros probably can't outpitch the Rays in the ALCS, so they'll have to hope that their offense can pick up where it left off and overwhelm Tampa Bay's hurlers.
Trouble is, the same tactic also seemed to be the Yankees' best hope of overcoming the Rays in the ALDS. Instead, Rays pitchers mostly contained their hitters. To boot, this was opposite a Yankees offense that led the AL in scoring in the regular season.
We'll thus expect more of the same from the Rays in the ALCS, wherein they'll simply be the better all-around team.
The Pick: Rays in 6
National League Championship Series
If its offense lives up to its potential while Fried, Anderson and Wright do their thing and the club's many talented relievers do theirs, Atlanta might be too much for the Dodgers in the NLCS.
However, the Dodgers offense is at least as good as Atlanta's, and it definitely has a chance to be the better unit in the NLCS because of its superior depth. Likewise, there's no arguing that Atlanta has better starting pitching. Los Angeles simply has too much depth and talent on that front.
Whether the Dodgers can win their first World Series since 1988 is a question for another day. But for now, we'll pick them to at least get there.
The Pick: Dodgers in 7
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant and MLB.com.
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