Lakers vs. Heat 2020 NBA Finals Preview: Who Has the Edge at Each Position?
Positionless basketball will take center stage in the 2020 NBA Finals, as one of its primary architects (Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra) is going head-to-head with his original centerpiece (Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James).
That's already a win for almost everyone, as a series in which most everyone can do most everything on the basketball court should make for a brilliant watch.
It does, however, complicate a position-by-position breakdown like this. With blurred lines between traditional designations and the switching and cross-matching that blurs them even further, it's tricky to decide who goes where and whom they're going up against.
For simplicity's sake, we're using each team's most recent starting five to make those decisions for us. By weighing statistical analysis with our always trusty eye test, we'll determine where each squad has an advantage and where they draw even heading into Wednesday night's opener.
Point Guard
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Goran Dragic wisely detoured to the Fountain of Youth en route to the NBA's bubble.
The 34-year-old went from starting three games in the regular season to becoming Miami's most consistent offensive weapon in Orlando. His team-best 20.9 points per game are up nearly five per night from the regular season (16.2), and the added volume hasn't cost him any efficiency. In fact, his shooting rates are up from the field (45.2 from 44.1) and from the line (81.4 from 77.6), and he's essentially held steady from distance (36.7 before, 36.3 now).
But the 190-pound Dragon is moving up a weight class—several, actually—in this position battle since the 6'9", 250-pound James now primarily resides at point guard.
James has been his typically ridiculous self in the playoffs, proving once again that cyborgs don't age like the rest of us. He's flirting with nightly triple-doubles (26.7 points, 10.3 rebounds and 8.9 assists per game) and is topping his previous postseason-best with a 63.6 percent conversion rate on two-pointers.
Most recently, he knocked out the Denver Nuggets with a 38-point, 16-rebound, 10-assist masterpiece. He also helped lock up Nuggets emerging star Jamal Murray, showing the complete commitment James has kept on defense throughout the campaign.
"He's empowered this whole group with just buying in with the plan that we had," Lakers coach Frank Vogel said, per ESPN's Ramona Shelburne. "With how we wanted to play this year and getting the whole group to buy in."
Again, Dragic deserves acknowledgement for turning back the clock this postseason, but James remains the most powerful force in basketball.
Edge: Lakers
Shooting Guard
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Position labels don't fit better than they do in this showdown between Miami's Duncan Robinson and L.A.'s Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
They aren't quite one-dimensional, but they know their bread gets buttered by three words: Let it fly.
Over 63 percent of Caldwell-Pope's playoff shots have been threes, and he's splashing them at a 42.1 percent clip. His career connection rate of 34.9 percent suggests he's over his head, but he has cleared 38 percent from distance in two of the last three seasons.
Nearly 89 percent of Robinson's postseason looks have come from long range, and he's found the mark on 40 percent. He took 88.2 percent of his regular-season shots from distance, too, and and he drilled 44.6 percent. Even with the condensed schedule, he became only the sixth player ever to splash 200 threes and shoot 44 percent outside.
Robinson is the better shooter, but Caldwell-Pope has a more diverse skill set. His superior athleticism allows him to make a bigger impact on defense, in transition and at the rim. Consider it a wash at the 2 spot, then.
Edge: Even
Small Forward
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Functionally, the matchup might be LeBron vs. Jimmy Butler, which would be an interesting conversation. James would win out, but Butler's toughness, tenacity and coolness in the clutch could at least narrow the gap.
Instead, we're looking at Butler vs. Danny Green, which is a comfortable win for South Beach's finest.
Butler isn't always who we expect or want him to be—he finished three playoff games with single-digit shot attempts—but he's who the Heat need more often than not. He plays a relentless brand of basketball whenever he steps inside the lines, and his top-shelf versatility reaches both ends of the floor.
His demanding style has rubbed teammates wrong in the past, but he and the Heat are kindred spirits in their militaristic pursuit of ultimate success.
"I always just wanted to win, do whatever it took to win," Butler said, per David Wilson of the Miami Herald. "Nobody is taking it personally because we all have the same agenda. It's not for stats, it's not for fame, it's not for none of that. It's to win a championship. My leadership style—it works here."
Butler has been everything the Heat wanted and more. The same can't necessarily be said for Green and the Lakers.
The 6'6" swingman hasn't made the impact most expected when he inked a two-year, $30 million pact last summer. His three-point percentage dropped nearly eight points from last season (36.7 from 45.5), and his field-goal shooting has flatlined in the postseason (35.5).
Edge: Heat
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Power Forward
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It's possible the Lakers slide Anthony Davis into their starting center slot, just as they did to put away the Houston Rockets. For now, though, we're operating under the assumption he'll continue to open games at power forward as he has for most of this season and playoff run.
That turns what could be a narrow victory over Bam Adebayo into a blowout of Jae Crowder.
That's no slight to Crowder, who's a big contributor to the Heat regardless if his on-again, off-again three-point shot is finding its mark. It's ideal if he's splashing consistently—especially since Butler doesn't shoot many threes and Adebayo never takes them—but Crowder's defensive versatility, toughness and hustle can help him make a positive impact even if he can't shake out of his funk from three (7-of-38 over his last five games).
But Davis is something between a top-10 and top-five talent. He might be the best player in this series overall.
His skill set has no weak spots. Even if you wanted to nitpick and highlight his career 31.9 three-point percentage, you'd have to acknowledge he the confidence and ability to bury a buzzer-beating triple to win Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals. He's an All-Defensive first-teamer who's also putting up 28.8 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists this postseason with a 57.1/36.6/81.0 shooting slash.
"I've had some great teammates in my career," James said, per Brent Zwerneman of the Houston Chronicle. "AD is one of those unicorns, and he does things that some of my other great teammates are not capable of doing."
Edge: Lakers
Center
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The Lakers have done a masterful job of juicing the orange at the center spot.
Their JaVale McGee-Dwight Howard combo might've sounded like a punch line during training camp, but they each logged over 1,000 minutes for a team that finished first in blocks, third in defensive efficiency and sixth in rebounding percentage.
Howard has enjoyed the more productive playoff run, and that earned him a starting spot in L.A.'s last two games. That doesn't have to be a permanent change—the Lakers might not need his physicality they way they did against Nikola Jokic—but if it is, he'll look to continue impacting the game with brute force around the basket.
Adebayo is a different kind of force. Give him a three-point shot, and he might be the perfect big man for the modern game. He moves and reads the floor like no 6'9", 255-pound center should even be allowed. He's an All-Defensive second-teamer who also graded as an 80th percentile finisher as a pick-and-roll screener and a 67th percentile producer as a pick-and-roll ball-handler.
Again, save for that three-ball, his bag has everything. He wouldn't be described as a natural scorer, and yet, he just closed out the conference finals netting a game-high 32 points on 11-of-15 shooting (10-of-11 at the line).
"Bam's one of the great competitors already in this association," Spoelstra told reporters. "He's going to become one of the great winners in history just because he's so competitive. He moves the needle in every single way."
Edge: Heat
Bench
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The bench battle is always a Finals wild card, and this year's iteration is no different.
The Heat had essentially a seven-man rotation by the end of the conference finals, with Tyler Herro and Andre Iguodala comprising the bench mob. That's actually fine, since most championship-round rotations don't stretch much further than that.
Herro has the scoring punch to take a game completely over (see: 37 points in Game 4 of the conference finals), and if you think of him as a shooter, prepare to be surprised by how much of a problem he can be off the bounce. Iguodala is the sage veteran whose experience, fast hands, strength and instincts are sure to give him the LeBron assignment in what will be their fifth Finals collision.
"You just got to have that will, understanding you're guarding the top talent ever," Iguodala told The Undefeated's Marc J. Spears. "He's going to make you pay when you make mistakes. You just try to play mistake-free basketball."
The Lakers have a deeper bench with Rajon Rondo (or "Playoff Rondo"), Alex Caruso, Kyle Kuzma, Markieff Morris and perhaps whichever of JaVale McGee or Dwight Howard doesn't start. Rondo's passing is probably the single most special skill of any substitute in this series, and Caruso has a knack for making things happen.
Kuzma could shift this matchup into the Lakers' favor if he breaks loose for big scoring nights as he has in the past. But he's still finding his place alongside James and Davis, and Kuzma is averaging just 10.5 points in 23.6 minutes this postseason.
Edge: Even
Coach
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It's hard to overstate how impressive Frank Vogel has been in his first season for the Purple and Gold.
Remember, he wasn't the team's first choice, and he was seemingly working alongside his preordained successor, Jason Kidd, the NBA's highest-paid assistant coach. Now, tack on the normal scrutiny that comes from coaching James and magnify it under the Hollywood spotlight, and you get a sense of the enormous pressure on Vogel.
Somehow, he aced this exam. The Lakers came together to build an elite defense, which featured a more dialed-in James than we'd seen in some time. Despite the wealth of coverage of this team, you never heard a peep of internal strife. Not through lineup changes, roster moves or even the rare rough patch.
This is, as James said, "unbelievable" work by Vogel, and it demands recognition. But even Lakers fans can admit Spoelstra is the obvious choice here, right?
He's a three-time champion—winning the 2006 title as a Heat assistant coach, and the 2012 and 2013 championships as their top skipper—who might be authoring his finest work to date. Who had the Heat making it to the NBA Finals? Who had them even escaping the second round?
They took on a presumed chemistry risk with Butler and appear as tightly bonded as ever. Spoelstra empowered Adebayo to make his All-Star ascent, and Herro and Robinson to make their marks as critical puzzle pieces. Spoelstra has shuffled and reshuffled his rotations, and he somehow always lands on the perfect mix. His usage of the zone defense just took the wind from the sails of a loaded Celtics attack.
He's leaving his present peers behind and quickly climbing the ladder of history's greatest hoops coaches.
Edge: Heat
All stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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