B/R NBA Staff: Chris Paul's Revenge, Thunder-Rockets Game 7 Predictions
Barely one year removed from the shocking Chris Paul-Russell Westbrook trade, the basketball gods gifted NBA fans with a revenge match that has more than lived up to the hype.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets are set to tip off Wednesday at 9 p.m. ET in a Game 7 with a Western Conference semifinals matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers on the line.
For James Harden and the Rockets, the expectations go far beyond a first-round victory. For the first time since 2016-17, the Golden State Warriors will not stand between the bearded guard and the NBA Finals. For Russell Westbrook, it's a chance at redemption after failing to win a playoff series since Kevin Durant's departure and seeing teammate Paul George seek greener pastures alongside Kawhi Leonard.
However, the most delicious storyline of all resides with 15-year veteran Chris Paul.
It's a simple one: revenge.
"James made this [expletive] happen," a league source told Yahoo Sports' Vincent Goodwill of last offseason's trade. "He wanted Chris up out of there."
Now, the Point God has a chance to send Harden and the Rockets home, possibly fracturing Houston's long-term outlook.
Here are our predictions for Game 7.
A Squandered Opportunity
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In all honesty, I have almost zero feel for how this game is going to play out.
On balance, the Rockets have clearly played like the better team. Two of their three victories have been blowouts, and they've held leads inside two minutes to play in two of their three losses. This isn't a matter of could; this series should absolutely be over already.
Something about the Thunder still calls to me, though. I can't really put words to it. Is it a lack of trust in Russell Westbrook after watching his turnover-fest in Game 6? Is it faith in Chris Paul, the late-game human torch who's slashing 50.0/50.0/100.0 in crunch time for the series?
Am I banking on Danilo Gallinari having found his shot? Do I think Darius Bazley has injected more two-way optionality into a Thunder rotation with very little? Is this pure stubbornness because I initially picked Oklahoma City to win the series and then doubled down on said prediction following news of Westbrook's quad injury?
Let's call it a combination of everything. Thunder in seven.
Steadiness vs. Variance
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Being higher on the Thunder than most people has been my play since the start of the bubble, so I'm sticking with them.
The Rockets are the most unpredictable team left in the playoffs, just by nature of their playing style. They're entirely dependent on three-pointers falling, and when they don't, it gets ugly.
Since returning to the lineup, Russell Westbrook has been quintessential Westbrook—for good and bad. He's a threat to attack the rim and a constant jolt of energy on the court, but he's also prone to the questionable decision-making that was the Rockets' undoing in the final minute of Game 6.
Oklahoma City has a lower ceiling as a team, but I trust Chris Paul's steadiness more than the Rockets' wild variance.
It's About Firepower
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The Houston Rockets have more firepower than the Oklahoma City Thunder; the Game 6 win by OKC was all heart.
Chris Paul can only carry his squad so far, and while the Thunder are talented, they're not quite as good as the Rockets. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luguentz Dort are both gamers, but they're still too young for the moment. Dort's offensive shortcomings are becoming more pronounced in a tight series, but the Thunder don't have anyone else who can make the same defensive impact.
Houston needs Russell Westbrook to settle down. He's trying to work his way back from injury, but he's taking away touches from James Harden and gives his team one less shooter to spread the floor.
As long as Westbrook's minutes are limited, especially if he's not playing well, Houston should be able to outscore the pesky but passionate Thunder.
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Storylines Matter
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It may not be the most analytically sound way to predict a Game 7 outcome, but the story of Chris Paul beating the team that traded him (and four first-round picks or swaps) is too good to pass up.
He was essentially cast off last summer, and it was somewhat defensible. With that contract and his advancing years, it made sense to look at other options. But 2019-20 served as rock-solid proof CP3 was far from done.
Beyond his 17.6 points and 6.7 assists per game with a 61.0 true shooting percentage, Paul had a plus-13.8 net rating swing that ranked in the 98th percentile. And his mentorship worked wonders for Dennis Schroder.
In this series, he's hunted his own shot a bit more, and he'll sense blood in the water in Game 7. Expect a big performance from CP3 in the closeout game.
This Game 7 Means More
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Though James Harden and Russell Westbrook have over 20 years of experience between them, they've had few experiences with Game 7s.
Westbrook's lone two victories came against the Memphis Grizzlies (2011 and 2014), and his only loss came at the hands of the Golden State Warriors in a franchise-altering 3-1 falter (2016). Harden's lone Game 7 victory in Houston came at Chris Paul's expense in 2015.
This Game 7, however, carries more pressure than any in either's career. The Rockets leveraged everything this summer to acquire Westbrook. Then general manager Daryl Morey doubled down on small-ball by jettisoning Clint Capela in favor of Robert Covington to further complement his stars.
Meanwhile, Paul has managed to restore his reputation as a top-10 player and possibly the game's best pure point guard. There's no pressure on his Thunder, who ESPN picked to finish 13th in the Western Conference.
"Some people built for it. Some people shy away from it," Paul said about crunch-time situations following Game 6.
Paul led the NBA in clutch scoring in 2019-20 (15 fourth-quarter points in Game 6), and his Thunder (first in clutch net rating) have regularly displayed their penchant for rising to the occasion in critical moments. His steady hand and thirst for revenge will guide the young Thunder and lead them to a victory that should send the Rockets into yet another offseason shakeup.
The Point God will have the last laugh.
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