Underdogs Play Tough in Pac-10 and Big 10 Games

No. 10 Iowa vs. No. 11 Ohio State

Week 10 didn’t go as planned for the Hawkeye’s as they received their first loss against Big 10 opponent Northwestern, as well as losing their comeback quarterback Ricky Stanzi for the season due to injury. While everything went right for the Buckeyes in Week 10 as they beat Big Ten rival Penn State, and with the Iowa loss, now has the opportunity to play in the Rose Bowl.

With the sudden emergence of Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State has been rolling of late, winning their last three games by an average of 31 points. Since Pryor’s debacle three weeks ago against Purdue, fumbling twice and throwing two interceptions in a 26-18 loss, he has thrown five touchdowns, one interception, and ran for a score in each of the three.

The only problem for Pryor is he is only completing 54 percent of his passes through 11 weeks, and has performed below that in each of his last three against sub par defenses with one exception (52 percent Minnesota, 47.8 percent New Mexico, 47.1 percent *Penn State*). 

The Buckeye offense depends on the success of Pryor, who has the most carries on the team with 115, and has scored three or more touchdowns in four games, three of the four coming at home.

The Buckeye’s only loss at home, and only time Pryor didn’t score came to USC. With a total of 22 touchdowns (15 TD, seven Rush TD), Pryor contains 61 percent of the Buckeye’s touchdowns (22-of-36). Sophomore RB Daniel Herron looks to be back at full strength with 16 carries last week. Herron, when healthy, is the No. 2 guy in the offense.   

So how does Iowa compete without QB Ricky Stanzi? Defense, and win the turnover battle.

Key on Pryor, and keep him in the pocket. Pryor is not a pocket passer, and limiting him to getting outside the pocket will prove to be crucial. A reason for Iowa’s 9-1 start is because of their defense creating turnovers, and Pryor is no stranger to giving up the ball doing it at least once per game.

In Iowa’s past four games, they have created seven interceptions, and have not allowed a quarterback to complete more than 60 percent of his passes. Ohio State’s defense has also been stingy shutting out three opponents, and not allowing a team to reach double digits in points last three games.

The Hawkeye’s defense must keep it a low-scoring affair if they have any chance to win, and I believe it will banking on that Tyrelle Pryor will make mistakes.

The team with the quarterback who makes the least amount of mistakes will win. Iowa freshman quarterback James Vandenburg will make his first college career start against the No. 5 ranked defense in the nation, and for this reason I like Ohio State, but not by 16.5.

Iowa plus-16.5

Other Big Ten Underdogs I like:

Indiana (plus-25) at Penn State – Indiana isn’t that bad of a team at 4-6 losing by an average of seven points to Big Ten opponents, and the Nittany Lions don’t have that potent of an offense.

Michigan (plus-9) at Wisconsin – The Badgers defense is suspect to giving up a lot of points, and the Wolverines are very capable to light up the scoreboard.

No. 25 Stanford vs. No.9 USC

The Pac-10 has surfaced as one of the top conferences in the nation due to the success of teams like Stanford. The Cardinals kept their Rose Bowl chances alive by beating then No. 9 Oregon last week 52-41, and now have their toughest challenge of the year on the road. Stanford, however, is accustomed to playing as the underdog against USC with the biggest upset in college football history as 41-point underdogs.

This match up is going to be an offensive onslaught which fares well for the Cardinals. The USC defense is not the once dominating factor it once was losing key players to the NFL draft and Stanford’s defense is allowing an average of 25 points per game.

Both teams have the top young quarterbacks in the nation with freshmen Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley. Luck is coming off one of his best games of his young career completing 12-of-20 throwing for 251 yards, and two touchdowns while Barkley is coming off his worst performance of the season completing 7-of-22  throwing a career low 112 yards.

Both quarterback’s early success is due to the dominating backfields of each team. The Cardinal’s contain the top back in the Pac-10 with running back Toby Gerhart who is leading Pac-10 running backs with 1,217 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. And the Trojan’s have a potent duo of backs with Joe McKnight and Allen Bradford, who both average over six yards per carry.

The Trojan’s defense can put critics aside with a solid day at home against the potent Cardinals offense, but after watching them give up 391 yards on the ground against Oregon, and 323 passing yards a week before to Sean Canfield, I see the Cardinals offense staying on track. I don’t see the Trojans offense being able to keep up with the Cardinals offense, but USC is at home where they haven’t lost yet, and Stanford struggles on the road at 1-3.

For this reason I like the Trojans, they just have to hope that the Cardinals don’t have the ball on the last drive. I give the edge to the Trojans, because the lack of big games Andrew Luck has played in, but the Cardinals keep it close because of their offense.

Cardinals plus-10.5

Other Pac-10 Underdogs I like:

No. 17 Arizona (plus-3) at California – With the loss of RB Jahvid Best, California’s offense will struggle losing their three games this season when Best didn’t score. Arizona is cruising through the Pac-10 of late, and I would ride the recent success. If the Wildcat defense keeps the Golden Bear offense away from big plays, then Arizona should have no problem winning on the road with a good enough offense.

Washington State (plus-17.5) vs. UCLA – Something has to go right for Washington State, and at home I like them close against another Pac-10 team that has struggled all year. UCLA will try to take their frustration out on the Cougars, but with the Cougars best chance from going winless in the Pac-10 they will fight a hard fight.