NBA Free Agents 2020: Predictions for Gordon Hayward, DeMar Derozan and More
The 2020 class of NBA free agents is not one that can be relied upon to turn your franchise around.
Even before the NBA scheduled was thrown for a loop by the COVID-19 pandemic, the group of players who could become available was less than impressive. Throw in the uncertainty around the league's attempt to return to play and what the long-term ramifications of the pandemic will be on the salary cap and it looks like an offseason where seismic activity will be at a minimum.
That sets up interesting decisions for some of the league's best players with a player-option heading into the offseason. All things considered, the financial insecurities are a good enough reason for most players to opt-in. That was evidenced by Andre Drummond already confirming he'll be opting in with the Cleveland Cavaliers next season.
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There is a tier of players who might still want to test their value. There are big names coming in the 2021 class. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James, Paul George and Victor Oladipo could all be on the market.
Teams have set themselves up to be spenders in 2021, but there will still be teams this offseason who have cash to spend and might be looking for veterans who can help now.
Here are three players who should be at least thinking about their options before October.
Gordon Hayward
Of the three players highlighted here, Hayward seems like the biggest lock to opt-in. There's reason for him to think about it before his deadline of October 17, but ultimately, the $34 million price tag he will command is too much to say no.
Hayward was enjoying his best season since coming to Boston from Utah before the league was put on hiatus. In 45 starts, he was averaging 33.4 minutes, 17.3 points and 6.5 rebounds while playing an important role for the Celtics, who currently sit at No. 3 in the East.
Previously, Hayward struggled to live up to the hype that he brought from Utah when he was reunited with Brad Stevens in 2017. Those struggles were largely related to his injuries. He suffered a gruesome leg injury in his first game in Year 1 and spent Year 2 as a reserve, appearing in 72 games with just 18 starts and his lowest minutes per game total since his rookie season.
Hayward wouldn't command anything near what his option will pay him in one season, but opting in could be risking another injury, which would completely deflate his value. If he were to hit the market now, he would be one of the best scoring wings available and won't turn 31 until halfway through the 2021 season.
If he opts to stick it out one more year in Boston, he will get to continue playing for a contender, but he is just one injury away from tanking his value and taking a long-term deal off the table completely.
Prediction: Hayward opts in
DeMar DeRozan is in the same tier as Hayward. Both are veterans who will need to manage their contracts well as they age to maximize their earning potential. DeRozan doesn't have the injury history of Hayward, but he will turn 31 before the 2021 season starts.
DeRozan is set to earn $27.7 million if he opts in. His play hasn't taken a considerable drop since being traded from Toronto, in fact, this season he is shooting a career-high 52.6 percent from the field while dropping a team-high 22.2 points per game.
The question for DeRozan comes down to team fit. The guard famously got traded away from Toronto only to watch the Raptors win a title without him. Now he's the leading scorer on a team that is a longshot to even get in the playoffs as the eighth seed.
Before the league went on hiatus, Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports reported that DeRozan would not be opting into his final season with the club unless a long-term extension was agreed upon.
A lot has changed since that reporting happened, though. DeRozan is another who figures to be impacted by the financial ramifications the league could face. Haynes went on to say the Knicks could be a team that would be interested in DeRozan, but with much bigger players available in 2021, the likelihood they would want to splurge on DeRozan seems limited.
Instead, DeRozan will likely be another who mulls over his options before ultimately deciding making one more run with his current team at his current salary is better than facing the unknown of the market in 2020.
Prediction: DeRozan opts in
Jerami Grant
The Denver Nuggets gave up a first-round draft pick to bring Jerami Grant into the fold in the offseason, but that doesn't mean he's beholden to the franchise.
Grant is one of the few players who could stand to make more money by opting out. According to FiveThirtyEight's projections, the forward's market value could be around $14 million a season for the next two years.
His three-year weighted averages in block percentage, defensive plus-minus and true shooting percentage are well above average. He's a versatile defender who can guard anyone up to three different positions while offering some shooting on the other end.
Unlike DeRozan and Hayward, Grant is 26 years old, so the allure of playing for a good team in Denver might not be enough to sway him to return. The Nuggets are third in the Western Conference, but Grant could ostensibly find a bigger role on a younger team. He currently averages 26.2 minutes per game and has made just 22 starts on the season.
Grant's skills should play well in the market. Teams should be interested in a low-usage, defensive-minded forwards who can hit open threes when playing with floor-spacers. At this stage in his career, it wouldn't be surprising to see him opt to sign a longer deal with a team like the Suns, who could add him to their young core and give him a larger role.
Prediction: Grant opts out; signs with the Suns
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