Why The Cowboys Will Win Super Bowl XLIV (Part I)

December 28, 1996.

On this date, the Minnesota Vikings met the Dallas Cowboys in a wild-card matchup at Texas Stadium.  Aside from the Cowboys thumping the pre-Randy Moss Vikings 40-15 and attempting to win their fourth Super Bowl in five years, not much stands out about this game.  Except for the fact that it was the last time the Cowboys won in the post season.  

For a franchise dubbed “America’s Team,” largely due to its participation in eight Super Bowls—winning five of them—as well as a string of twenty consecutive winning seasons (1966-85), there is something uncomfortably sobering for Cowboys fans about this thirteen year stretch of futility.  The simple truth is that not much has gone right for Dallas since the days of the Triplets imposing their will on opponents, and Charles Haley’s giant member wreaking havoc on teammates.        

Starting the year after the playoff victory over the Vikings (1997), the Cowboys have gone through five different head coaches (after employing only three during the first thirty-seven years of existence), trotted out eight different starting quarterbacks, lost six consecutive playoff games, and failed to reach the postseason seven times. 

However, all of these bad memories are on course to be wiped out this year.  Not only are the Cowboys playing in the largest, most expensive football stadium ever built (which from here on out will be referred to as “District 9”, because, well, it reminds me of that giant freaking spaceship from the movie District 9 ), they are looking at their most successful all-around season since the mid- 90’s.  Even better, they are going to win Super Bowl XLIV.  

Go ahead.  Let that last sentence sink in a little.  The Dallas Cowboys are going to win the Super Bowl this year.   

Seems like a huge stretch?  Sounds completely unrealistic?  Well, allow me to explain my prediction by breaking down the rest of the Cowboy’s regular season (Part I), as well as examining the likely foes that Dallas will face in the playoffs on their way to Miami (Part II).   

As with any sports-related prognostication, you can never account for the unknowns, like random injuries, player suspensions, or giant asteroids striking the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex.  So I am basing this bold forecast on how the teams have played to date, as well as on the rosters as they are presently constructed.  For the sanity of all Cowboys fans out there, let’s hope that Tony Romo doesn’t contract some horrible form of VD from whatever new blonde he now has perched in Jerry’s luxury box on game day.

I. The rest of the regular season

The final eight weeks of the Cowboys schedule looks like this: at Green Bay; home for consecutive games against the Redskins and Raiders; at the Meadowlands for a NFC East clash with the Giants; return to District 9 to host the Chargers; back-to-back road games against the Saints and Redskins; and the season finale at home versus the Eagles. 

Out of these eight games, the toughest tests will likely come against the Saints and possibly the Chargers and Giants.  The rest of the matchups are definitely winnable.  Here’s a week-by-week breakdown:

Week 10

The Cowboys face a Packers team that is reeling from an embarrassing loss to the previously winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as well as an overall disappointing season.  Not only did the Packers give up three touchdowns in the last twelve minutes to the Bucs and their rookie quarterback, but Aaron Rodgers solidified his status as the quarterback most likely to not throw the ball away under pressure and take a drive-killing sack.  If they handed out an award for this, um, achievement, the NFL would seriously have to consider naming it after Brett Favre’s former understudy.  Combine Rodgers' Ball Separation Anxiety (BSA, for short) with Green Bay’s porous offensive line, and I smell a DeMarcus Ware sacking spree. 

Week 11 & 12

After their trip to Tony Romo’s homeland, the Boys luckily face two of the most dysfunctional teams in football, the Washington Redskins and the Oakland Raiders  As of Week 9, the Redskins had notched victories over the mighty Rams and Bucs…and no one else.  Oh, and those wins were by a combined five points. 

Washington has scored the fourth fewest points in the league this year, and last month stripped head coach Jim Zorn of play calling duties and handed them over to a guy who had been out of football for five years.  I think we can all agree that Team Snyder is in a free-fall, and there is nothing to indicate that things will improve dramatically over the next two weeks. 

Next up is a home game against the Oakland Raiders, who know plenty about head coaching troubles, as well as total team disharmony.  Since Jon Gruden left in 2001, the Raiders have hired five different head coaches, and may be looking for number six next spring, depending on whether Tom Cable can prevent himself from completely melting down and decapitating one of his assistant coaches during a time out. 

Granted, they did somehow pull out a week 6 home win against the Eagles, but their quarterback, JaMarcus Russell, currently has a QB rating that is almost identical to his completion percentage—48.3 versus 48.4%.  Poor Raider Nation.  Let’s not forget that this game is being played on Thanksgiving Day, and that the Raiders will be playing on four days rest after facing the Bengals in Oakland.  Do they even wake Al Davis up for this game? 

Week 13

The first weekend of December offers an intriguing rematch with the surprisingly struggling Giants.  These two teams originally faced each other in Week 2, which was also the first regular season Cowboys game played at District 9.  You know, back when punting the ball into the giant TV screen over the field made national news and prompted approximately seventeen thousand hours of sports talk radio discussion. 

The teams combined to score 64 points as the Giants eked out a two-point victory on a Lawrence Tynes field goal as time expired.  This early season duel also had Tony Romo playing one of the worst games of his career, throwing three picks—all eventually leading to Giants touchdowns—and posting a 29.3 QB rating.  Romo played so bad that Cowboys fans actually started to wonder if Romo’s dumping of Jessica Simpson had been a BAD thing.  Well, almost. 

However, the Cowboys did rush for 251 yards against the G-Men and easily would have won the game had Romo played halfway decently.  Let’s not forget that in the last four weeks, the Giants have gone winless, with their defense allowing more than 33 points per contest during that stretch.  While the Meadowlands is a notoriously hostile environment—especially late in the season—a nice run-heavy game plan by Jason Garrett, combined with Eli Manning’s well-documented troubles throwing the ball in windy conditions, and we should have at least thirty-five minutes of vacant Tom Coughlin stares.  At least, in theory. 

The well-known truth is that the Cowboys have wilted in December in each of the last three seasons, with much of the blame being placed on Tony Romo.  After defeating the Eagles last week, Romo has now won his last thirteen November starts.  Very impressive.  Unfortunately, over that same stretch, he is only 5-8 in December.  Not so impressive.  Suffice it to say, this game will be a huge barometer for the Cowboys in terms of whether or not they are able to move beyond their recent late season malaise and actually win a game when it matters most.  

Week 14

After facing the Giants, the Cowboys head back home to face the schizophrenic San Diego Chargers.  Why are they schizophrenic?  Because you never know what kind of Chargers team will take the field on any given weekend.  By Week 14, we could either be looking at the (hopeful) end to the latest Norv Turner head coaching failure, or at a very confident Chargers team ready to fulfill its potential as a pre-season Super Bowl favorite.  At this point, no one really knows. 

What we do know is that LDT is no longer a franchise running back (a whopping 3.2 yards per carry – ouch), and the once-mighty Chargers defense is ranked a woeful 26th against the run. Combine that with a Cowboys rushing attack that goes three deep and is currently ranked eight overall, and we could be seeing some serious yardage on the ground for Dallas.    

Also, there is a real possibility that San Diego will win all of their games between now and Week 14, meaning that this could be a matchup involving a 9-3 Chargers team and a 10-2 Cowboys team.  Leading up to this contest, the Chargers play four games, two of which are against winning teams: the Eagles at home and Denver on the road.  The Eagles bombed on their last trip west—against the Raiders—and the Broncos may or may not be a good team; it appears that opposing defenses have figured out how to slow down Kyle Orton & Company.  The other two games for the Chargers are against Kansas City and Cleveland, which are a combined 2-14.

But before I get you too excited for this delightful late season showdown, I must point out that the head coaches roaming the sidelines for this game will be Norv Turner and Wade Phillips.  It might be best for everyone involved if we stop right here and proceed to the next game. 

Week 15

Easily the toughest opponent the Cowboys face between now and the end of the regular season is the Saints.  The Big Easy Boys currently have the highest point differential in the league, outscoring their opponents by more than 16 points a game; they are on pace to break the single-season team scoring record; they have rallied from double-digit deficits in two of their last three victories; they have a locked-in Drew Brees on pace to throw for 4600 yards and 34 touchdowns; and they will face only one cold-weather team between now and the end of the regular season (the woeful Washington Redskins).  The only real negative you can say about the Saints is that their defense is middle of the pack (currently 16th overall).  Unfortunately, it is slightly better than the Cowboys defense (19th overall, but improving). 

Seeing as how this game is being played at the Superdome, on Sunday night in front of a nationally-televised audience, and that New Orleans fans have never had a team this good to cheer for in any sport in the history of the city, the Saints appear to be an easy lock to win this contest.  Keep in mind that these two teams have a strong possibility of meeting in the playoffs (more on this later).    

Week 16

After battling with the Saints, the Cowboys get a gift from their NFC East schedule:  a second game against the Redskins, this time at District 9.  By the time this game rolls around, most of the talk will likely be centering on how quickly Daniel Snyder will pull the plug on Jim Zorn’s coaching career in Washington once the season is over.  That’s because the Redskins could easily be 3-11 after playing games against the Broncos, Cowboys, Eagles, Saints, Raiders, and Giants between now and Week 16.  Let’s just say the Cowboys have an excellent chance at winning this game and move on to more important things.

Week 17

The regular season finale brings us a rematch of sorts from last year’s season-ender:  a contest against the much-hated Eagles.  The biggest difference is that this time the game will be played in Dallas (er, Arlington) and not Philly.  Last year, as you may recall, the Cowboys went into Lincoln Financial Field needing only a victory to wrap up a playoff spot, and left as 44-6 losers facing an off season of massive turmoil. 

But let’s not dwell on the past.  In the first meeting between these two teams last week in Philadelphia, the Cowboys benefited from an efficient Tony Romo, a healthy pass rush, no Brian Westbrook for the Eagles, and Andy Reid doing crazy, end-of-the-game Andy Reid things (you should always kick a 52-yard field goal when you are down a touchdown, there are less than five minutes remaining in the game, and you have no time outs left). 

The biggest difference between last week and the upcoming Week 17 matchup?  Brian Westbrook.  While the guy has slowed down some this year, the Eagles are still at their best with Westbrook catching the ball on well-designed screen plays or bailing out McNabb on short dump-offs that turn into 45-yard game changers.  The Eagles at full strength, possibly fighting for a playoff spot, will give the Cowboys all they can handle.

So, to recap, the Cowboys have three gimmies (Washington twice, Oakland), three difficult, yet winnable games (at Green Bay, at New York, Philadelphia), one potential land mine (San Diego), and one likely loss (New Orleans).  The Cowboys are in prime position to finish 12-4, losing only the Saints game in New Orleans and one of its remaining divisional games (most likely at the Meadowlands against the Giants, but possibly to the Eagles at home to end the regular season).  This would ensure them of getting either the 2nd or 3rd seed in the NFC playoffs, and going a long way towards ending thirteen years of meaningless football in Dallas.  

Part II will break down the possible playoff matchups facing the Cowboys on the road to Super Bowl XLIV.