NBA Free Agents 2020: Contract Predictions for Brandon Ingram, Top Wings
Brandon Ingram's upside has been evident for quite some time. After all, he was the second overall pick of the 2016 NBA draft.
But it wasn't until his involvement in last summer's Anthony Davis megadeal that Ingram's star began to shine. Placed in a prominent role for the Zion Williamson-led New Orleans Pelicans, Ingram has engineered a dazzling 2019-20 campaign that featured the first of what could be many All-Star appearances. He could not have timed the breakout any better, either, since restricted free agency awaits him this offseason.
Will the Pelicans drop a five-year maximum contract offer on his doorstep as soon as the free-agency market opens? Or could an outside suitor pluck him out of the Crescent City?
We'll examine the futures of Ingrams and other top free-agent wings below.
Predictions for Top 2020 Free-Agent Wings
Brandon Ingram, New Orleans Pelicans (Restricted)
The Pelicans made a big splash upon Williamson's debut, but their best basketball could be years ahead of them.
You would assume, then, that makes the 22-year-old Ingram an indispensable piece of their puzzle. He could be an ideal costar with Williamson since Ingram can create his own shot, spot up off the ball and even run pick-and-rolls with the 2019 No. 1 overall pick.
But that doesn't mean New Orleans will send a convoy of armored trucks toward Ingram the moment the market opens. Few teams can create max-contract space this summer. Knowing that, the Pelicans could wait for Ingram to receive his biggest offer and then match it.
That seems risky, though.
This franchise has momentum, which didn't seem possible once Davis forced his way out. Williamson is a fortune-changer, and New Orleans should do everything to foster his growth and show him a clear commitment to winning. Taking an aggressive approach with Ingram accomplishes both.
Prediction: Ingram signs a five-year max deal with the Pelicans.
Gordon Hayward, Boston Celtics (Player Option)
On the surface, Gordon Hayward's offseason dilemma seems straightforward.
He has a $34.2 million player option for next season. He's had a very good campaign in 2019-20, but not the kind that would fetch him a richer salary in this financial climate.
That said, the security of a longer deal should hold some appeal, even if it came with a lower annual value. Hayward has already had one season wiped out by injury, and he had to spend the next one knocking off the rust. His 30th birthday is behind him. If a reasonable, four-year offer comes across the table, it will be tempting to pounce on it.
But unless someone is willing to overpay, Hayward will decide his player option is too sweet to decline. He not only collects a massive amount of money, but he does it for a contending team that's run by his college coach (Brad Stevens). If Hayward authors another strong season in 2020-21, he could wind up striking it rich next summer, when the market will likely be much heavier with win-now spenders.
"It's too much money to pass up," a general manager told Heavy.com's Sean Deveney. "... He can opt in this year and then take a big contract next year. When you look at what he has done since his injury, he has only gotten better. He could get better next year and be ready for the summer of 2021."
Prediction: Hayward opts in to his $34.2 million player option with the Celtics.
Danilo Gallinari, Oklahoma City Thunder (Unrestricted)
Danilo Gallinari is aging like the finest wine.
Last season, his age-30 campaign, he set a new career-high in scoring (19.8 points per game). This year, he narrowly missed raising the bar (19.2). He's one of only three sharpshooters to average two-plus triples and sink at least 40 percent of his long-range looks in each of those seasons.
Theoretically, he should have a crowded market of suitors. But few teams have money this offseason, and most that do aren't in position to spend big on a 30-something.
That might whittle down Gallo's potential landing spots to two teams: the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Miami Heat. OKC can trace a lot of this season's unexpected success to Gallinari, the team's top shooter and second-leading scorer. But Miami pursued him heavily at the deadline for a reason. His shooting and shot creation could be what nudges the Heat from really good to great.
Neither situation is perfect. The Thunder are more of a rebuilder than a win-now team; they just can't go head-first into a reset until they shed Chris Paul's salary. The Heat don't want to add long-term salary since they are dreaming as big as possible for 2021.
But he makes the most sense for Miami, provided he's amenable to a short-term deal with a bloated salary. The Heat are closer to contending, and the East is still the easier conference to win.
Prediction: Gallinari signs a two-year, $44 million deal with the Heat with a team option for the second season.
