Breaking Down Patriots-Colts: Key Personnel Matchups To Watch

There are certain things to look forward to in November.

Turkey, Black Friday (if you're not working), Turkey (leftovers edition), and the best tryptophan-induced nap of the year. 

But one thing I missed as a football fan last year is the seemingly inevitable showdown between the Colts and Patriots with an undefeated record on the line.

Last year the 4-4 Colts welcomed the 5-3 Patriots as a hobbled Peyton Manning took on Tom Brady's replacement. It was one of the few times this decade the two teams took each other on without it feeling like a midseason Super Bowl.

Manning ultimately found his way to the MVP while the Patriots missed the playoffs, but it was an occasion lacking in the usual circumstance.

This Sunday, that flair is back as the undefeated Colts will take on the resurgent 6-2 Patriots.

Manning is playing as well as ever, Belichick is having a vintage season as coach of a group of players coming together as a group, Brady seems to have rebounded nicely, and all the stars are aligned for another classic matchup.

But these games go so far beyond Brady and Belichick and Manning. Though I'll discuss the impact of those players as well, let's look at some of the other positional battles for Sunday where the margin of victory will truly be eked out.

Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney vs. Nick Kaczur and Sebastian Vollmer

The stellar defensive end combination of Freeney and Mathis provides an incredible amount of bite and big play potential when the Colts line up in their standard four-man line.

Freeney, though he's been fighting injuries the last couple years, is consistently one of the fastest rushers off the edge.

To his sizzle you can add Mathis' pop. Mathis may be the premier strip-sack artist in the game. He's not necessarily the most consistently dominant force on that side, but if he gets to the quarterback, it's very likely he'll knock the ball out.

It's going to be especially difficult because the Patriots will still be without left tackle Matt Light.

In Light's place has stepped rookie Sebastian Vollmer. Vollmer is an interesting story. A bruising 6'8'', 315 lb lineman from Germany, Vollmer only started playing football when he was 14 yet has developed considerably, especially this season.

Under offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia, he's managed to protect Brady's blindside despite being thrown headlong into the starter's role with Light inactive.

Still, Freeney's speed and considerable library of pass rushing moves can give even the most talented tackle fits. Vollmer's size advantage will give the Patriots the opportunity to run hard to that side, but in pass protection he'll have to be especially good if Brady and the offense want to get anything going.

Vollmer and the rest of the line did well to protect Brady from Miami's pass rushers this past weekend, but they'll face an even tougher test this weekend.

How they fare will go a long way to determine how successful the Patriots are as an offense.

Brandon McGowan and Gary Guyton versus Dallas Clark

One of the more puzzling personnel decisions last week—next to Miami man-covering Randy Moss once again—was Houston's attempt to use rookie linebacker Brian Cushing to cover Dallas Clark one-on-one all game.

Clark's final line? 16 targets, 14 receptions, 117 yards.

Cushing managed to defend one pass but was largely a victim of Clark's rare combination of size and speed.

Yet, despite Clark's considerable talent, he's not the first top-tier tight end the Patriots have faced this year and, unlike Houston, the Patriots are somewhat better equipped to stop Clark.

Clark is most effective because he combines the speed of a wide receiver with the size and blocking ability of a classic tight end. It's a wonderful hybrid position that has developed over the last two decades as passing games have become easier to execute.

Already this season the Patriots have faced two such tight ends: Tony Gonzales and Kellen Winslow.

While those two are perhaps less speedy than Clark, the Patriots covered both by having safety Brandon McGowan play man-to-man and shading help to his side.

The question is whether McGowan has the athleticism to stay with Clark the same way he shut down Winslow and Gonzales. The Patriots may also utilize speedy linebacker Gary Guyton, who ran the fastest 40-yard dash of any linebacker at the 2008 combine, to assist in the coverage.

It's especially interesting to watch because both McGowan and Guyton entered the league as undrafted free agents and have played their way into starting roles. 

It'll be fun to see how well they stack up against the 2003 first-round pick. If they can't clamp down on Clark, it'll be difficult for the Patriots to keep the ball in Manning's hands long enough to reach him.

Colts' Tackles vs. Adalius Thomas and Tully Banta-Cain

The Colts have played a kind of revolving door at tackle in the last couple years as Tarik Glenn gave way to Tony Ugoh and now Charlie Johnson.

Now Johnson and Ryan Diem mostly manage the outsides of the line and, despite their lack of quote-unquote pedigree, they're performing as well as any line in the league in terms of pass blocking.

Much of that has to do with Manning's ability to sense pressure and release the ball quickly, thus avoiding sacks, but even Manning can't get all the credit for a line that's only given up seven sacks and not allowed its quarterback to be hit a single time as he throws (according to ProFootballFocus.com )

Similarly, the outside linebacker spot has also gone through a great amount of recycling as Mike Vrabel, traded to the Chiefs, has been at one time or another been "replaced" by Pierre Woods, Shawn Crable, Derrick Burgess, and Tully Banta-Cain.

After making a good show of moving to the 4-3 defense, the Patriots have since returned to their more familiar 3-4 alignment (at least in base, which they're only in about half the time according to ESPNBoston's Mike Reiss).

That's been predicated by circumstance, of course, but also by the fact that Banta-Cain and Thomas have been so good.

They're not putting up gaudy numbers, necessarily. Banta-Cain has just 3 sacks, second on the team, and 10 QB pressures to his name, but he has consistently been a disruptive force to opposing quarterback this season, allowing an improved secondary to really take advantage and make some big plays.

Still, this will be the toughest test the Patriots have yet faced, trying to put pressure on a passing game that has been, to this point, nearly untouchable.

With a matchup with the New Orleans Saints looming just two more weeks down the line, it's certainly a strong indicator of where the Patriot pass defense stands as a unit.

Laurence Maroney vs The Colts run defense/The World

This is less to do with the Colts specifically, but it's been a weird season for Maroney.

Coming into this year you'd have an easier time finding an honest debate on health care than a New England fan supremely confident in Maroney's abilities as a running back.

Even now that he has posted 248 yards and three touchdowns in the last three games, few are buying Maroney as a legitimate threat. 

Yet there he is, earning the praise of his coach, having just skewered the Dolphins (a pretty good run defense) for 82 yards and a score.

This week he gets to take on a banged-up Colts defense that, without Bob Sanders, is just not the same against the run.

It's odd to hear him talk about "self-scouting" himself, talking about how he needs to be more patient behind his blocks while it seems like he's always running on sand every time he hits the line.

You can't argue with the results, though, as Maroney has seemed to balance hard running with patience at the perfect time with Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris held out with injuries.

The Patriots aren't going to be a running team any time soon, that's for sure. But they need to close out games with long, clock-killing drives that only short passes and solid first-down runs can.

If Maroney can do that for this team, he may finally get the respect as a runner that he looked like a lock to earn way back in 2006.

Still, three games a franchise back does not make, especially if he doesn't continue to consistently show the burst and vision that he's lacked in his career to this point.

Peyton Manning vs. Bill Belichick

This storyline has already been overblown somewhat just two days into this week, but it's clear that each has succeeded at the expense of the other this decade.

Manning began his career against Belichick by going 1-7 including the playoffs, but has since turned it around winning four of the last five matchups.

It's telling because Manning may go down as the premier quarterback of this era in terms of his ability to read a defense, make adjustments, and execute.

To call his 2009 season so far "vintage" is underselling what is already shaping up to be another MVP campaign.

As I wrote in my take on the MVP candidacies of the major contenders last week, I think Drew Brees deserves consideration for the award as well, but if Manning leads his team to a win on Sunday and finishes with 13 or more wins against a tough schedule, he deserves it.

Back-to-back MVPs—and perhaps another title—would certainly give him an even more credible case for being called the QB of the decade.

Brady has the titles and certainly the respect, but he doesn't have the legacy of being the overwhelming football mind the way that Manning does.

I don't know if I buy any of the "team of the decade" talk, but anytime you can see an all-time great quarterback run his offense against an all-time great coach trying to stop him, you have to tune in.