UFC 105 Couture Vs. Vera: Main Card Predictions

UFC 105 Predictions: Main Card

Ross Pearson 9-3-0 (+165) vs. Aaron Riley 28-11-1 (-210)

Lightweight Division (155 lbs.)  -  3 Rounds

             Most MMA fans got to know Ross Pearson through TUF: UK where he went on to beat Andre Winner in a so-so fight for the Lightweight TUF Title. Pearson will get the benefit of home-crowd advantage, as he will be fighting in his native England.

          Aaron Riley is much more infamously known for being in one of the worst stoppages in UFC history at UFC 96. (Though he avenged the loss at UFC 101 to Shane Nelson)  But to the hardcore MMA fans he’s known as a tough-as-nails type who rarely puts on a boring show.

          This fight doesn’t do much for me.  If the fight wasn’t in England, or a free Spike telecast, this fight never makes the main card.

Prediction: Aaron Riley via unanimous decision

James “Lightning” Wilks 6-2-0 (+125) vs. Matt Brown 10-7-0 (-155)

Welterweight Division (170 lbs.)   -  3 Rounds

              James Wilks is the other winner off of TUF 9, defeating Demarques Johnson by rear naked choke in the 1^st round. Four of Wilks’ six wins have come by way of submission; yet with just two TKO’s and zero KO’s to his name, Wilks’ stand-up has yet live up to his moniker of  "lightning".

          What can you say about “The Immortal” Matt Brown? Perhaps the best way to describe Matt is, “good at everything, great at nothing”. He is coming off of two consecutive wins in the octagon, while Wilks is making his first non-TUF appearance.

          Though he was on team UK, don’t expect the fans to give Wilks the same reception as the other British Fighters, as Wilks is a transplant from all over (mainly California)

          This is another “bleh” fight for me, but one that I don’t see going to the judges’ scorecards.

Prediction: Matt Brown via 3^rd rd TKO

Mike ‘Quick’ Swick 14-2 (-210) vs. Dan ‘The Outlaw’ Hardy 22-6 (+165)

Welterweight Division (170 lbs.)  -  3 Rounds

             Swick was devastated after he had to withdraw from his scheduled #1 contender bout with Martin Kampmann. He was even more sick to see fill-in Paul Daley go on to beat Kampmann, knowing that had that been him Swick would be fighting St. Pierre for the title.

          Instead Swick gets Dan Hardy in what the UFC is calling a #1 contender fight (though I’m not convinced if Hardy wins that the UFC would sacrifice him to GSP).

          As usual, the main concern with Swick is his health. After blowing out his knee 2x in a four-year span Swick has stated that he’s 100% and ready to go.

          The other concern would be if Swick is truly a top contender at 170. While he has beaten several decent names (Marcus Davis, Josh Burkman, Joe Riggs, David Loiseau) his detractors will be quick to point out that in his two biggest fights (Chris Leben, Yushin Okami) Swick is 0-2.

          Dan Hardy came to the UFC in 2008 defeating Akihiro Gono by split decision. Since then he has rattled off two more wins to climb his way up the welterweight ladder.

          Known for his hands, half of Hardy’s wins have come via TKO, though he hasn’t fought nearly the caliber of opponents as Swick. However on the other hand, besides a DQ to Yoshiyuka Yoshida, Hardy has rolled off 11 wins since 2006.

          Stylistically this should be a great matchup, as both guys aren’t afraid to stand and bang. Hardy certainly has the power in his hands to catch Swick, but I just don’t see it happening.

Prediction: Mike ‘Quick’ Swick via vicious 2^nd rd KO

Michael ‘The Count’ Bisping 17-2 (Ev.) v. Dennis Kang 32-11-1 (-130)

Middleweight Division (185 lbs.)  -  3 Rounds

          This fight is my pick for “fight of the night”. Bisping is coming off a LETHAL knockout loss to Dan Henderson. Kang is coming off a decision win over Xavier Foupa-Pokam, but has yet to truly establish himself in the UFC with a 1-1 record and a submission loss in his first foray into the octagon vs. Alan Belcher.

          Both fighters need to make a statement in the worst way, as the loser is effectively forever eliminated from the title picture in the MW division.

          Bisping is a brash, arrogant, sometimes annoying loudmouth who relishes getting under his opponents skin; and until the Hendo fight he had always backed up his talk. (His other loss was a razor-thin split decision loss to Rashad Evans)

          Surrounding Bisping are numerous questions: Is his chin still suspect after the last beat down he took? Is he truly a top contender, or merely a gatekeeper for the 185 division? Will Bisping be able to drown out the adoring hometown crowd and stick to his game plan? Or will he get caught in the moment and fight off of emotions? Barring this fight going to the scorecards, the octagon does not lie so we should have our answers shortly.

          Kang is a self-proclaimed “under the radar” guy who plans to stay that way win or lose. Though he is veteran of over 40 fights, I’m a little surprised that Kang is the miniscule favorite, and not the other way around. Kang has gone .500 in his last 8 fights so it would appear the line is more an indicator of Vegas not trusting Bisping’s chin than of the fighter’s skill levels.

          The question for Kang is whether his ‘experience” is an advantage or simply a nice way of saying his head has been bashed more.

          The one spot his experience will help him is dealing with the crowd. Kang has fought all over the world, and a trip to Manchester certainly won’t take him out of his comfort zone. He’s been on the big stage in Pride before, and now has two UFC fights under his belt so he should be extremely relaxed, even with what will seem like the whole arena against him.

          I think Bisping has a slight edge in the standup, though Kang has more power in his hands, and is certainly better on the mat. I expect the fight to be a war that goes the distance, though a late 3^rd rd TKO wouldn’t surprise me if either fighter gasses.

          I see this fight being one of those where the guy who wants it more takes it, the guy who just refuses to break crushes the other’s spirit.

          It took Kang so long to make the UFC roster that I just don’t see him being ready to pack it up and leave just yet. However I would absolutely not let this fight go to the judges’ scorecards if I were Kang. A controversial decision wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

Prediction: Dennis Kang via 3^rd round TKO

Main Event of the Evening:

Randy ‘The Natural’ Couture 16-10 (-120) vs. Brandon ‘The Truth’ Vera 11-3(-110)

Light Heavyweight Division (205 lbs.)  -  3 rounds (non-title fight)

          The odds makers say this is a “pick-em” fight, which means on paper they’re about as evenly matched as you can be. This fight also marks Couture’s return to the 205 lb. division where he has not fought since losing the tiebreaking fight in his epic trilogy with Chuck Liddell in 2006.

          The fight is made even more entertaining by just how contrasting their styles are. One could pick either fighter to dominate the other, and it could legitimately happen. Vera is a Muay-Thai specialist with some of the best leg kicks in MMA while Couture is a wrestler known for his legendary takedowns and cardio.

          For some venturing from the Heavyweight to the Light Heavyweight division would mean a great deal of stress the day of the weigh-ins. Couture won’t have this problem as wrestler’s cut weight with the ease most of us gain weight.

          Randy is coming off losses to Brock Lesnar and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria. In the Lesnar fight, Couture looked three weight classes smaller than Brock, and nearly 70 lbs. lighter. Versus Nogueira, Randy proved he is still improving by getting out of two submission attempts that 99 percent of fighters would have tapped / passed out from.

          The age issue always comes up with Randy, but in his last fight at 47 years young he showcased ground skills that he absolutely did not possess at age 40. Since he is clearly still evolving / improving as a fighter age shouldn’t be a factor.

          During his training camp Randy has focused on “getting back to basics” by working on his wrestling. This decision should benefit him immediately in the LHW division. Controlling someone of Brock’s size, and someone of Vera’s size are two completely different tasks; and similarly striking with Brock and Vera are two monumentally different tasks.

          In the end Randy’s dilemma became: Stay in the heavyweight division where I have more hand speed and quickness than most, but can’t utilize my greatest tool? Or drop to 205 where I will be slower than most in the stand-up, but able to control opponents with my greatest strength in wrestling?

          Randy decided to ride the horse that brought him here, and it could wind up rejuvenating his career…. At 47….. AGAIN.

          Brandon Vera’s career has taken a long windy road to get where we are today. He was at one point the hottest prospect in MMA, someone who seemed to have more talent in his pinky than most had in their whole body. He spoke of holding the LHW and HW titles simultaneously, and people actually believed it to be possible.

          After defeating Frank Mir at UFC 65, Vera was believed to be unstoppable. He was 8-0 with only one of those fights going to the scorecards.

          Then it all fell apart.

          Vera lost consecutively to Tim Sylvia and Fabricio Werdum. The losses couldn’t have come at a worse time; Vera was in the midst of a contract dispute with UFC brass and wanted too much money for a guy coming off back-to-back losses.

          After a full year away from the sport due to stalled negotiations, Vera finally struck a deal with the promotion and decided to make his return at LHW. The change didn’t produce the desired results as Vera won a lackluster decision vs. Reese Andy and then lost his next fight against feast or famine Keith Jardine.

          Vera has won his last two fights since the Jardine bout, but has left many pondering where his killer instinct has gone. In his most recent engagement, Brandon fought former IFL’r Krzysztof Soszynski. Vera circa 2005 would have decapitated Soszyknsi; Vera circa 2009 was content to win a decision against a clearly inferior component.

          Brandon claims that he has never been as motivated for a fight in his life. That fighting one of his idols means the fans will see the “best Brandon Vera that has ever fought”. He admitted that if, “you’re not in the best shape of your life for Couture, that guy will beat your head in.”

          If he’s telling the truth, expect a great fight. If he’s bluffing… well expect his head to get beat in.

          This much we know. Randy will not be broken. Ever. His will is the stuff of legends. If Brandon enters this fight looking for another decision win, he will leave the cage bloody, battered, broken, and confused. He must go for the KO, must get his killer instinct back or he is in for a looooooong night.

          “The Truth” must utilize his leg kicks until Randy has to be carted out of the octagon. Couture has shown susceptibility to leg kicks, and Vera possesses some of the best. Brandon needs to weaken Randy’s legs enough to take away his power wrestling game. Turn the bout into a striking match and his chances of winning improve astronomically.

          Likewise the formula for Randy to win is just as simple. Turn the fight into a ground war, and his worst-case scenario becomes a decision victory. 

          So the real question is who can implement their will, force the other to fight their style?

Prediction: Randy Couture via rear naked choke in round 2

Randy forces his opponents to fight at his pace, regardless of whether he wins or loses. I don’t think Vera has the takedown defense to keep Randy off of him, and I don’t think trying to get your killer instinct back vs. Randy is a good spot to be in.