UFC 105 Couture vs. Vera: What's About To Happen

Aloha everybody! In case you haven’t noticed, every time I preview a fight card, my picks are usually about as accurate as Donald Rumsfeld’s predictions about the war in Iraq. I was a reprehensible 8-14 picking fights on an international website.

Until Strikeforce.

The Strikeforce show unfolded almost exactly as I predicted, with one exception: Brett Rogers is better than I thought. I thought he fought a great fight, but Fedor is making a habit of catching guys 0.000001 seconds before they catch him. At what point are people going to stop calling Fedor overrated? Can someone give me a date?

We would have had a second exception, but I was mildly shocked at the Silva-Werdum decision. Definitely a close fight, but I thought Bigfoot did enough to win. And it’s a shame he lost, because in my opinion he has way more tools to throw Fedor off than Werdum does. Oh well.

Anyway, 3-1 ain’t bad. I’m confident enough to bestow upon you, the reader, a preview of next Saturday’s lackluster UFC 105.

PS: go ahead and just “single page” this one, because I’m going to ramble on like Ted Striker in Airplane! Just giving you a heads up.

Alexander Gustaffson (8-0) vs. Jared Hamman (10-1)

I'm going to get straight to the meat of this card, so I'll just say this: Gustaffson by TKO. It's just an all around cooler name.

Andre Winner (9-3-1) vs. Roli Delgado (6-4-1)

Man, it’s hard to keep up with all this new talent coming into the UFC. I’m at the point where I think there is almost TOO MUCH talent. And I’m not going to scour the internet for these two guys’ fights. It just isn’t going to happen.

The only time I’ve seen Winner fight was on the TUF 9 finale. He lost. Wasn’t particularly defiant in defeat, either.

As for Delgado? I vaguely remember watching him fight Junie Browning in that atrocity of a TUF season. I couldn’t tell you what happened.

For no reason whatsoever, give me Delgado by decision.

 
Nick Osipczak (4-0) vs. Matthew Riddle (3-0)

Most fight fans know Riddle for his devestating knockout of Dan Simmler on the Ultimate Fighter. It was a first in two instances: 1. Nobody had ever been KO’d on TUF to the degree that they were moaning like a Tuskan Raider from Star Wars , and 2. Quinton Jackson had never abandoned his fighter after a demoralizing loss. Imagine what Rashad would have thought of this one.

Since then, Riddle has rattled off three straight dominant but relatively uninspiring decisions against the likes of Dante Rivera, Steve Bruno, and Dan Cramer, none of whom are considered strikers.

Enter Nick Osipczak. His only UFC bout that “counted” was a quick submission win over Frank Lester, but he has more tools on his feet than Riddle. This fight is going to come down to Osipczak’s TD defense. If he can keep the relentless Riddle off of him, he can win a decision by outpointing him.

In my opinion, this is one of those fights that Riddle wins nine out of 10 times. But, reading Riddle’s pre-fight quotes, he is CLEARLY looking past Nick, which seems like a dumb idea when you have never finished a opponent. Osipczak by decision in an upset.

John Hathaway (11-0) vs. Paul Taylor (10-4-1)

I like this matchup. Hathaway is one of those guys who isn’t particularly great at any one thing, but does several things at an above average level. Add that to the fact that he’s a 6’1 welterweight with reach and suddenly you have one of the UFC’s top welterweight prospects.

Then you have Taylor, a solid, if somewhat frenetic striker with a 3-3 UFC record and 3 Fight of the Night bonuses on his resume. Win or lose, Paul Taylor always shows up to fight. You have to hand it to him.

I just think Hathaway has more ways to win this one. He has to be careful when he gets in close, as Taylor has proven he knows how to dirty box with the best of them. But John can use his wrestling, top control and submission game to throw Taylor off and force him to go for broke on the feet. I could see Taylor winning, but I think Hathaway takes this one via decision.

Paul Kelly (9-1) vs. Dennis Siver (14-6)

Paul Kelly gets on top of people and grinds them out. Sometimes he throws hooks to the body, but he'll put on a top control clinic against Siver before subbing him late. Kelly my 3rd round submission.

Terry Etim (13-2) vs. Shannon Gugerty (12-3)

I have done a complete 180 on Terry Etim. Seeing him at first, I thought he was going to be another one of those fantastic strikers that simply could not stop a takedown if his life depended on it.

Then, we found out that Terry is a pretty good grappler as well. But he’s learned how to dictate where the fight goes, which is always a great thing for someone with such flawless muay thai.

As for Shannon Gugerty, well…let's just say that he hasn’t exactly blown my socks off so far in his UFC career. I remain uncertain as to what he does well. Other than stay in lopsided triangle chokes for a minute and a half before tapping. He seems like a tough guy though. I have to give him that.

I love Etim here. He’ll blast Gugerty out within two rounds. TKO for Etim.

James Wilks (6-2) vs. Matt Brown (10-8)

I'm just gonna keep this one short: I love Matty Brown here. Wilks did a nice job submitting DaMarques Johnson to win TUF season nine, but I think that was one of the least talented TUF casts they've had. I think Brown exposes Wilks pedestrian striking game here and knocks him out at the end of the first round.

Ross Pearson (9-3) vs. Aaron Riley (28-11-1)

For starters, Riley is 4-1 in his last five fights against better than average competition, with the lone setback coming on one of the worst early stoppages in MMA history, courtesy of UFC newcomer Rick Fike. Where do they find these guys? Wow. He went on to bully Nelson in the rematch. I love the experience and veteran striking, but at what point does Riley just become punch drunk? I mean, this guy has taken A LOT of damage over his 12 year career. He’s tough as nails, no question. But still.

Luckily for Riley, he’s fighting Ross Pearson, whose lone UFC fight came to the likes of Andre Winner on the TUF 9 finale. He won a decision, but his style in that fight reminded me of a man trapped in a phone booth with a bee. In other words, he was really fast, stayed tight with his strikes and showed a lack of ability to land anything clean. I don’t necessarily know what that means, but give me the veteran over the relative newcomer. Riley by TKO in the third round.

Denis Kang (32-11-1) vs. Michael “The Count” Bisping (17-2)

If you're a UFC or PRIDE/DREAM fan you should know both of them pretty well at this point. Bisping is a British counter fighter whose stand up is a bit too full of jitters and nervous energy to suit my liking, which is why the Henderson KO made complete sense to me. Bisping fights nervous as hell. It finally caught up to him.

That being said, he has shown that he knows how to eke out decisions by moving around, countering with double jabs, body kicks, and Jazzercise knees. I'm not saying he isn't a talented fighter, but I just cant see him consistently beating top guys.

Of course, to me, Denis Kang isn't a top guy. He is good with submissions, and he's also good at getting caught in them. His standup could be described as "adequate" and maybe even "slightly above average...just slightly" but nowhere near spectacular.

I think this fight comes down to who can put more pressure on the other fighter when the fight is on the feet. If Kang does the Henderson approach and swings wild combinations until he connects when Mikey is backing up, I could definitely see Kang taking over.

But you know what? If the fight hits the ground, I honestly don't trust Kang to not get subbed. I could easily see it happening, and I'm going to predict that it will. Kang will knock Bisping down with a punch and attempt to pounce as Mikey triangles the living crap out of him. Yes, I just picked Michael Bisping. I don't like it any more than you do.

Bisping by sub, round three.

Mike “Quick” Swick (14-2) vs. Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy (22-6)

Boy, has this Mike Swick thing gone too far. It really has. I honestly do not understand how he keeps beating these guys. Maybe I'm an idiot. To me, he had a better chance of flourishing at 185 where he didn't have to cut weight and still maintained his trademark speed.

So how the hell did he make it to a title eliminator against a much more polished striker? Let's take a closer look.

Swick made his WW debut against wrestler Josh Burkman. He looked more gaunt than Calista Flockhart after a 30 hour famine. Of course, he won a lackluster decision. Not a good start, though.

Then, they throw him in there with Marcus Davis, who proceeds to wilt under Swick's pressure for 15 minutes, only there wasn't really any pressure. Mike makes sure to be as predictable as possible, whiffing on four straight headkicks in the opening minute. The fight ended with some "brutal" Swick "ground and pound" that had me saying things like "Mark Coleman does not approve" and "is Marcus Davis throwing this fight?" An utterly perplexing 15 minutes. Why didn't Davis put some four- and five-punch combos together?? Why?!? You got me. By the way, I know I'm an armchair fighter. Heard you loud and clear. Swick again takes the unanimous nod.

Fast forward to Swick vs. Jonathan Goulet (wow! The fans have been waiting for this one for years!). Goulet runs into a right hand and it's over. Of course, Goulet could run into a stale fart and it'd be over. Alas.

Finally, we have Swick vs. Ben Saunders. Swick takes him down as Saunders proceeds to hug him like a koala for three consecutive minutes. Swick doesn't attempt to pass or strike. Of course he doesn't. Once the fight hits the feet, Saunders strarts to find his range with kicks to the body. Apparantely, Saunders doesn't realize that this is MMA and you can throw punches. This truth manifests itself in the second frame as Saunders is blasted with a frenetic combo and drops to the ground like he's been shot. Swick by TKO.

Now...

Has Swick just been given favorable matchups? Or is he truly coming into his own at the lower weight class?

Dan Hardy's career in the UFC has consisted of two razor-close split decision wins over accomplished fighters (the aforementioned Davis and Japanese diva Akihiro Gono) and a counter-left-hook KO of Militech product Rory Markham. I have seen enough of Hardy to know the following things: he's an explosive, technically sound striker; he's not bad on the ground; and he has an annoying mohawk.

I think Hardy has enough cage presence to dictate where this fight goes. I'd say he'd want to keep it on his feet and be the first guy since Chris Leben to make Swick see tweety birds. Come on, Dan. I'm tired of being confused. Hit him in the face and call it a day. Hardy by KO in the second round.

Randy “The Natural” Couture (16-10) vs. Brandon Vera (11-3)

Oh God. I have to write about this fight? Really? Yeah, I guess I kind of have to seeing as how it’s the main event and everything. But still. Yikes. The only reason you should read this is if you want to see my prediction and heckle me for being wrong. Because I honestly don’t have too many nice things to say about either guy at this point. Here we go.

Couture is coming off a loss, a massacre of almost Biblical proportions against fading superstar Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira…in front of his hometown crowd, no less. The lesson, as always: you never want to be the “hometown favorite.” Ever. Ever ever ever. It’s almost like wearing a red shirt in Star Trek.

Randy would hit Nog, and Nog would just come back with four or five bombs. It was the first fight, to me, that really exposed Randy’s age for what it is. Nog was faster, smarter, more cerebral, everything you’d want in a performance. There was no hole in Couture’s game that Nog did not expose at some point in the fight.

Anyway, I think this fight comes down to two questions:

1. Is Randy still decent at 205?                                 

This is a complicated question. On the one hand, no, he isn’t. On the other hand, is he decent enough to topple Brandon Vera? I think he is.

2. Can Vera capitalize on the fact that Randy is 46?

Maybe. Maybe not. It depends on who has the better gameplan, really. God, I hate this fight. I hate it. But hey, as they always say…it’s on free TV, you dunce. You know what? Good point.

I think Randy pushes Vera up against the cage, dirty boxes him, takes him down, pats away at him for awhile, and then the first round ends. Just rinse and repeat for the other two rounds. That’s all I can tell you. Couture by decision.