Bleacher Report's Expert Super Bowl LIV Picks and Predictions

The line for Super Bowl LIV, in which the Kansas City Chiefs are small favorites over the San Francisco 49ers, has bounced between -1 and -1.5, which means Las Vegas sportsbooks—and the rest of the country—have no clue who'll win Sunday. 

This could be only the fourth Super Bowl with a line below 2.0, which means we could be in for a barnburner because it's also projected to be one of the highest-scoring title-game tilts in NFL history. 

Bleacher Report has and will continue to dissect the matchup from every angle imaginable, but it's time for NFL analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon and Brent Sobleski to wrap up a turbulent season with their final calls against the spread (with a couple of bonus predictions to follow). 

Here's how that crew has fared this year:

1. Brad Gagnon: 135-125-6

T-2. Brent Sobleski: 128-132-6

T-2. Gary Davenport: 128-132-6

Consensus picks: 126-134-6

Moneyline consensus: 171-93-2

How do they see things playing out Sunday? Unsurprisingly, they're close to split—just like everybody else, per Action Network. Nothing's unanimous, so you'll have to decide who makes the most compelling arguments. 

Odds from Caesars as of 5 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Jan. 29, unless otherwise noted.

The Details

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

When: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET

Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

TV: Fox

Referee: Bill Vinovich

Line: Kansas City -1.5 (opened at -1.5)

Total: 54.5 (opened at 52.5)

San Francisco injuries: The big question for the 49ers is running back Tevin Coleman, who is fighting to get back from a dislocated shoulder suffered in the NFC Championship Game. Linebacker Kwon Alexander (pectoral) continues to be limited in practice but should be good to go.

Meanwhile, defensive lineman Dee Ford (knee/hamstring) said this week he hasn't been 100 percent, while tight end George Kittle admitted he's been playing with a torn labrum in his right shoulder since 2018. Regulars Marquise Goodwin (knee), Weston Richburg (knee) and Trent Taylor (foot) are on injured reserve.

Kansas City injuries: Tight end Travis Kelce (knee) and defensive lineman Chris Jones (calf) are practicing fully for a remarkably healthy Chiefs team. Broadly speaking, they've become used to life without defenders Juan Thornhill (knee), Breeland Speaks (knee), Emmanuel Ogbah (pectoral) and Alex Okafor (pectoral), all of whom are on injured reserve. 

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The Pick

Michael Zagaris/Getty Images

The majority of our trio is backing the underdog, and the argument boils down to the fact that—as Sobleski points out—"the Chiefs have the best player in the game, but the 49ers are the better overall team."

"Basically," he added, "San Fransisco must realize Patrick Mahomes will make plays. It's inevitable. At the same time, San Francisco is best suited to limit those opportunities with the game's deepest defensive front and the NFL's best pass defense. The 49ers have an advantage since their defensive line is far more talented than Kansas City's offensive interior. If San Francisco collapses the pocket while maintaining contain, Mahomes won't be nearly as effective."

And as Davenport explained, San Francisco's stacked defense could be the difference.

"This is a tale of strength against strength—Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and a loaded Kansas City offense against DeForest Buckner, Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman and a stacked San Francisco defense," he said. "Mahomes and Co. will get theirs—he's just too dynamic to shut down completely. But more than once in the history of the Super Bowl we've seen the league's best offense and best defense lock horns. Usually, the defense prevails—see Seahawks vs. Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII. They don't say 'defense wins championships' for nothing. San Francisco will make the play on that side of the ball that wins the day."

Gagnon begs to differ. 

"Five of the last nine Super Bowl winners surrendered 24 or more points in the process of securing the Vince Lombardi Trophy," he said. "These things are track meets more than ever, and nobody is better in that environment than the Chiefs, who have scored 86 points in their last seven quarters of playoff football. I know the 49ers defense is a new challenge, but Mahomes is playing a level above everybody in this game. And with two weeks to prepare for an opponent, Andy Reid is 22-5. I'm taking the team that has the better quarterback and the more experienced head coach in a close one."

For those considering following Gagnon, it's worth pointing out that he ran away with the picks title this season, and that those picking against the majority as lone wolves are 81-68-3 on the year.

But few would argue with the notion that the 49ers are deeper and more broadly talented. And while the Chiefs have won both of their playoff games by double-digit margins, they also fell behind by double digits in both outings. Against a San Francisco team that has generated five takeaways and nine sacks in two three-score, wire-to-wire postseason blowouts, Kansas City can't afford another slow start. 

But with that possibility, our guys are leaning in the 49ers' direction. 

Predictions

Davenport: 49ers 33, Chiefs 31

Gagnon: Chiefs 27, 49ers 24

Sobleski: 49ers 31, Chiefs 28

Consensus: San Francisco (+1.5)

Score Prediction: 49ers 28, Chiefs 27

The Over/Under Pick

Michael Zagaris/Getty Images

This marks the fifth time we've had a Super Bowl point spread above 54.0. The over has hit on only one of the previous four, but two of our three panelists figure the 49ers and Chiefs will combine for well over 54.5 points in Miami. 

"Just because I expect the 49ers to prevail doesn't mean points won't be scored," said Davenport, who has the game climbing into the 60s. "Lots of points, as a matter of fact. This Super Bowl feels a lot more like LII (Patriots vs. Eagles) than LIII (Patriots vs. Rams)—and New England and Philadelphia combined for 74 points. Time your bathroom breaks accordingly."

The Chiefs have averaged 31.7 points per game since Week 10, the 49ers have averaged 32.3 since Week 8, and three of these teams' four playoff games have contained at least 57 points.

Even if San Francisco loses, it'll likely keep this close. All three 49ers losses this season came on the final play, and it has scored 22-plus points in 11 of its last 12 games. And the Chiefs are in a similar boat. All four of their losses came by one score, while they've scored 22-plus in 13 consecutive games. 

If both teams hit the mid-20s, there won't be much room left for the under. 

"Kyle Shanahan's success as a play-caller throughout the 49ers' playoff run predicts another ground-and-pound approach to control the ball and keep Mahomes off the field," Sobleski said. "But the thought of 28-3 has to be floating in the back of Shanahan's head. Mahomes will get his at some point. So, don't expect Shanahan to take his foot off the gas pedal. The Niners head coach learned the hard way he needs to finish an opponent when it's down."

Meanwhile, it's interesting Davenport is picking the 49ers partly because defense wins championships yet is going with the over, while Gagnon is picking the Chiefs partly because recent Super Bowls have been track meets yet is going with the under. But the former believes San Francisco's defense will make a game-changing play in a high-scoring affair, while Gagnon is expecting plenty of offense but more sustained drives.

"Maybe I'm just traumatized by the fact that the Patriots and Rams combined for just 16 points when I had them going over 55.5 last year," Gagnon joked. "But both defenses are very strong, and I can see this falling short of the total because both offenses might try to go for death by a thousand cuts rather than risky bombs. I think Reid will counter San Francisco's lethal pass rush with a lot of quick, short passes, and we all know how the 49ers love to control the ball with their backs."

Still, our guys give a slight edge to the over, which is a lot more fun to cheer for anyway.

Predictions

Davenport: Over by 9.5 points

Gagnon: Under by 3.5 points

Sobleski: Over by 4.5 points

Consensus: Over

The MVP Pick(s)

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Three experts, three different MVP choices. 

Gagnon is rolling with the odds-on favorite in Mahomes, Sobleski is taking the Vegas runner-up in Jimmy Garoppolo, and Davenport is picking the defensive player with the best odds, Nick Bosa. 

Gagnon on Mahomes: I'm not exactly going out on a limb here, but I picked the Chiefs to win, and Mahomes is their quarterback. Sometimes, it's that simple. The winning team's QB has won MVP in nine of the last 13 Super Bowls, and Mahomes is on fire. The dude has accounted for nine touchdowns without throwing an interception this postseason. 

In support of Mahomes: He's led the Chiefs to more than 30 points in all four of his career playoff games and is averaging 37 points per playoff start. He's also the only player in NFL history with more than 10 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in the playoffs, and his postseason passer rating of 115.0 is the highest in modern NFL history by a margin of 12.2 points. 

Sobleski on Garoppolo: The running game will still be a big part of what the 49ers do. However, the playbook should dramatically expand. Yes, Garoppolo has thrown only 27 passes through two postseason games, but that approach has nothing to do with the quarterback's ability. He didn't need to throw the ball more because San Francisco dominated up front. Now, Shanahan can use the team's previous approach to his advantage with a strong play-action game to drive the ball down the field and create big plays since Kansas City will inevitably sell out to stop the run.

In support of Garoppolo: In the final six weeks of the regular season, Jimmy G completed a league-best 76.2 percent of his deep pass attempts for a passer rating of 117.7 on throws that traveled 15-plus yards. And during that same stretch, he had a 117.8 rating in the fourth quarter or overtime of one-score games. 

Davenport on Bosa: We've witnessed 53 iterations of the Super Bowl—and no first-year player has ever been named the game's most valuable player. Sunday is as good a time as any for that streak to be broken, and Bosa's just the type of player to break it. Let's go with a nice multi-sack game—including one with a late forced fumble that provides the sort of huge momentum swing that can net a defensive player MVP honors.

In support of Bosa: The Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate has three sacks, 10 tackles and four quarterback hits in these playoffs. The moment doesn't appear to be too big for him.

Predictions

Davenport: Nick Bosa

Gagnon: Patrick Mahomes

Sobleski: Jimmy Garoppolo

Consensus: N/A