Ten Steps To A Redskins Recovery

This article originally appeared on CubicleGM.

Today was the first in quite a while that I didn’t throw on my typical Clinton Portis #26 Washington Redskins jersey early Sunday morning and stay within eyeshot of the TV for an entire afternoon.  Last week, with the Redskins on a bye week that couldn’t have come sooner, I felt like my life was a little less stressful.  Sunday was a day to enjoy good football, instead of throw my hat around the room and swear off a team that I’ve tied my emotions to for so many years.  This week, I watched the game, but tried to take it easy.  It’s obvious that these Redskins are not a very good team, and probably quite a few years from being something that resembles one.

The NFL is a funny beast – in general, the margin of error is relatively small, although this year’s version seems to have many more pretty bad teams than pretty good teams.  Most years, I tend to believe that you can pin a team at a win total plus-or-minus two wins with 95% confidence.  This is obviously a wide spread; wider, probably, than most other professional sports leagues.  There tends to be such a significant advantage when playing at home and, for the most part, teams in the middle 80% of the league aren’t much better or worse than each other.  Better teams – through guts, luck, or something else – will win a few more games.  Worse teams will fall short, often by the margin of just a few games lost by a touchdown or less.

The best teams fall into the 11-12 win category.  At best, they’ll be 13-3 or maybe even 14-2.  At worst, 9-10 wins and a likely playoff berth.  Teams at the very bottom of the league can be estimated with 95-ish percent confidence to win about 3 games.  Again, at best, they’re 5-11.  At worst, 1-15. 

Heading into 2009 (calling me foolish would be spot-on, in hindsight), I put the Redskins at the higher end of that middle 80%, with about nine +/- two wins.  An unlucky year, and they would be 7-9, outside the playoffs and looking in, with a new coach and quarterback for 2010.  If I was correct and they finished 9-7, the Redskins are in the back end of the playoff hunt in a tough NFC East and the future(s) of the latter portions of my last statement are up-for-debate.  On the off-chance that things went their way – not once but several times - the team is 11-5 and competing to win the division.  I was way off.  This team sucks.

The theory holds, I believe, and I might delve into that topic sometime in the future.  But for now, a 10-step program to a Redskins recovery.

Step One: Fire Vinny Cerrato.  This should have happened long ago, if not before the embarrassment of Week 6.  If Vinny’s title is accurate, then he’s been in charge of player personnel during an era with some of the worst player personnel decisions in the history of the NFL.  Trading three draft picks for T.J. Duckett.  Another couple for Jason Taylor’s long and distinguished career in Washington.  Not resigning Antonio Pierce, just one year before the cracks of a linebacker corps with little depth (and talent in coverage) began to show.  Using a trio of valuable second round draft picks on a young receiver, a gimpy receiver, and a tight end who can supposedly catch (haven’t seen much of it until last week) but has no idea how to pass block.  Waiving Ryan Clark, who was promptly signed by the Steelers and is considered by many to be the most underrated safety in the NFL.  The list could go until next Monday.  I’ll leave it at that.  Bottom line – Fire Vinny.

Continue: http://www.cubiclegm.com/2009/11/08/ten-steps-to-a-redskins-recovery/