TUF 10 Quarterfinal Breakdown: Roy Nelson vs. Justin Wren

We’re halfway through Season 10 of The Ultimate Fighter , and starting this week, eight fighters will be narrowed down to four in the quarterfinal round.

The first matchup will be an intriguing battle between former IFL Heavyweight Champion Roy “Big Country” Nelson, and one of this season’s most talented young prospects, Justin “The Viking” Wren.

Let’s take a look at a stylistic breakdown of what could prove to be the best fight of the season.

Striking

As of yet on the show, neither fighter has displayed a strong arsenal of striking skills, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they are incompetent when on their feet.

“Big Country” may not appear to be much of a threat standing up, but he has proven to be very capable of knocking people out back in his IFL career. When Nelson was the Heavyweight champion of the now defunct organization, he was coming off of four straight TKO victories that really displayed the power he has in his hands.

Wren defeated Wes Sims in his first fight on the show without even landing a single strike, so therefore it is difficult to determine Wren’s standup abilities from that fight alone. In previous fights though, Wren has used his striking to set up takedowns, and has finished four opponents with ground n’ pound.

Neither are world class strikers, but Nelson should have the slight advantage on the feet. “Big Country” is technical enough to out-strike Wren, and as far as power is concerned, just ask TUF 2 finalist, Brad Imes, about Nelson’s immense KO power.

Roy Nelson has the striking advantage, 10-9

Wrestling

Wren may not be the largest fighter in the house, but “The Viking” would be able to out-wrestle every single fighter from both teams, save for maybe Jon Madsen.

Wren’s freestyle, and Greco-Roman wrestling credentials, are highly impressive. Back in his high school career, Wren was coached by Olympic Gold Medalists Kenny Monday, and Kendall Cross, and was a two-time Prep All-American.

Wren has also worked comprehensively with Cael Sanderson, whom many believe to be the greatest college wrestler of all time. In Greco-Roman style, Wren won the national championship in 2005, earning a spot at the Olympic training center in Michigan to commence his Olympic pursuit.

Nelson on the other-hand, is certainly an excellent grappler in his own right, but he is not an overwhelming wrestler. There is a big difference between taking Kimbo Slice down, and trying to out-wrestle a Greco-Roman champ.

Wren will have a distinct advantage in this department, but depending on how he plans on using it, it could either be a triumphant success, or an absolute disaster.

Justin Wren has the wrestling advantage, 10-8

Jiu-Jitsu

Here is where things get interesting, and where “Big Country” will prove his worth in the Octagon. As stated above, Wren is a much better wrestler, but when it comes to Jiu-Jitsu, Nelson is one of the very best in the world for the Heavyweight division.

Nicknamed the “Jiu-Jitsu Panda” by his Team Rashad allies, Nelson is extremely well known for his superb ground game. In pure grappling competitions, “Big Country” has defeated notables such as former UFC Heavyweight Champ Frank Mir, and Jeff Monson.

Obviously, there is a big difference between pure Jiu-Jitsu competition, and utilizing Jiu-Jitsu in an MMA fight, but Nelson has shown a great amount of talent in both fields. It cannot be stressed enough that grappling is not about submissions, but more about obtaining the dominant position, and this is something Nelson is a master at.

Against Sims, Wren proved very capable of obtaining a dominant position, and finishing a fight with a choke. Say what you want about Sims, but he’s a very experienced fighter that has competed against some of the very best in the game, for Wren to completely run through a fighter of that caliber just further proves how dangerous he truly is.

When this fight hits the floor, you are going to see a very technical battle for positioning, which Nelson will win. Another thing that “Big Country” does very well on the ground is his utilize his “belly” to his advantage, and put his weight on his opponents, so it will be interesting to see how Wren will be able to handle the power of “the belly”.

Roy Nelson has the Jiu-Jitsu advantage, 10-8

Cardio

At first glance, Nelson appears fat, and out of shape. If you ran into him on the street, and you’ve never seen an MMA fight in your life, the last thing you’d expect “Big Country” to be is a professional athlete unless of course he were a national champion at a pie eating contest.

But as the old saying goes, never judge a book by its cover, or in this case a fat kid by his cheeseburger. Nelson has the cardio to fight for the full-three rounds, despite his super-chunky physique, although he has shown to have a questionable gas-tank in his previous outings outside of the TUF house, most notably in his fight against former UFC champ Andrei Arlovski.

Wrestlers have the best work ethic in the sport, and it’s very rare to see a national champion of Wren’s caliber, gas out in a fight, it just doesn’t happen very often. We haven’t really seen where Wren’s cardio is at, but he may have an advantage in the later rounds if “Big Country” slows down.

Justin Wren has the cardio advantage, 10-8

The Result

This is a matchup that under different circumstances could have been the final bout at The Ultimate Finale in December. MMA fans have been criticizing the preliminary fights of this season, but stylistically the quarterfinal fights should all be action-packed barn burners, and Nelson vs. Wren may be the best one of the four.

Neither fighter is going to be able to impose his will on the other, as they did in their preliminary fights against Slice, and Sims, respectively. Nelson is going to look to pick Wren apart on the feet with his underrated boxing ability, and eventually get the fight down to the mat where he can utilize his world class Jiu-Jitsu skills.

Wren’s wrestling pedigree will give him the aptitude to dictate wherever the fight takes place, and the most intelligent approach would be to use the Greco-clinch to keep “Big Country” up against the cage, and zap his will. If Wren can completely destroy Nelson’s gas tank than he will be able to control the former IFL champ from every position, and either earn a decision, or finish the fight.

The problem is, eventually the fight will take place on the ground. Either Wren takes Nelson down, or Nelson somehow brings the fight down there through pulling guard, or scoring a takedown. From there “The Jiu-Jitsu Panda” will control the positioning, and earn the unanimous decision victory in a very technical, yet explosive start to the quarterfinals.

Roy Nelson by unanimous decision

B/R TUF 10 Fantasy Game Standings:


Matt Randall: 12 points
Jon Madsen
James McSweeney
Roy Nelson
Brendan Schaub
Justin Wren
Darrill Schoonover

Cameron Mumford: 12 points
James McSweeney
Roy Nelson
Brendan Schaub
Justin Wren
Darrill Schoonover
Marcus Jones

E. Spencer Kyte: 12 points
James McSweeney
Roy Nelson
Brendan Schaub
Justin Wren
Darrill Schoonover
Marcus Jones

Ken Foss: 12 points
Jon Madsen
Roy Nelson
Brendan Schaub
Justin Wren
Darrill Schoonover
Marcus Jones

Flying Knee: 10 points
Jon Madsen
James McSweeney
Roy Nelson
Justin Wren
Darrill Schoonover

Aoife O’Connor: 10 points
James McSweeney
Roy Nelson
Brendan Schaub
Justin Wren
Darrill Schoonover

Peta Waller: 10 points
James McSweeney
Roy Nelson
Brendan Schaub
Justin Wren
Darrill Schoonover

Alysha Diaz: 10 points
James McSweeney
Roy Nelson
Brendan Schaub
Justin Wren
Darrill Schoonover

Melanie Wray: 10 points
James McSweeney
Roy Nelson
Brendan Schaub
Justin Wren
Darrill Schoonover


Lynn Donegan: 10 points
James McSweeney
Roy Nelson
Brendan Schaub
Justin Wren
Darrill Schoonover

Sinaed Marie O’Hara: 10 points
James McSweeney
Roy Nelson
Brendan Schaub
Justin Wren
Darrill Schoonover


Jessy Morris: 10 points
James McSweeney
Roy Nelson
Brendan Schaub
Justin Wren
Darrill Schoonover


Mitch Ciccarelli: 10 points
Jon Madsen
Roy Nelson
Brendan Scaub
Darrill Schoonover
Marcus Jones

The Truth Turcott: four points
Justin Wren
Marcus Jones

Stoker Mac: four points
Justin Wren
Marcus Jones